Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T11:22:14.153Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Refinancing Inequality During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 December 2023

Sumit Agarwal
Affiliation:
National University of Singapore Business School [email protected]
Souphala Chomsisengphet
Affiliation:
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [email protected]
Hua Kiefer
Affiliation:
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation [email protected]
Leonard C. Kiefer
Affiliation:
Freddie Mac [email protected]
Paolina C. Medina*
Affiliation:
University of Houston Bauer College of Business
*
[email protected] (corresponding author)
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

During the first half of 2020, the difference in savings from mortgage refinancing between high- and low-income borrowers was 10 times higher than before. This was the result of two factors: high-income borrowers increased their refinancing activity more than otherwise comparable low-income borrowers and, conditional on refinancing, they captured slightly larger improvements in interest rates. Refinancing inequality increases with the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and is characterized by an underrepresentation of low-income borrowers in the pool of applications. We estimate a difference of $5 billion in savings between the top income quintile and the rest of the market.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington

Footnotes

This article was previously circulated with the title “Inequality During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Savings from Mortgage Refinancing.” We thank Mara Faccio (the editor) and her team for their valuable input. We also thank seminar participants at the 2023 AFA Annual Meeting, 2022 EFA Annual Meeting, 2022 FIRS Conference, 2022 AREUEA National Conference, 2022 ITAM Finance Conference, 2021 CEBRA Annual Meeting, 2021 SFS Cavalcade, 2021 NUS RE Seminar, 2020 American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Collaborative, and 2020 FHFA Fall Econ Summit, as well as at the OCC, Freddie Mac, FDIC, and Texas A&M University for valuable comments. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Freddie Mac or its management, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the United States Department of the Treasury, the United States, or any federal agency and do not establish supervisory policy, requirements, or expectations.

References

Adams-Prassl, A.; Boneva, T.; Golin, M.; and Rauh, C.. “Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: Evidence from Real Time Surveys.” Journal of Public Economics, 189 (2020), 104245.10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104245CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.The Impact of Homeowners’ Housing Wealth Misestimation on Consumption and Saving Decisions.” Real Estate Economics, 35 (2007), 135154.10.1111/j.1540-6229.2007.00185.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.; Amromin, G.; Ben-David, I.; Chomsisengphet, S.; Piskorski, T.; and Seru, A.. “Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program.” Journal of Political Economy, 125 (2017a), 654712.10.1086/691701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.; Amromin, G.; Chomsisengphet, S.; Landvoigt, T.; Piskorski, T.; Seru, A.; and Yao, V.. “Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program.” Review of Economic Studies, 90 (2023), 499537.10.1093/restud/rdac039CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.; Ben-David, I.; and Yao, V.. “Systematic Mistakes of Borrowers in the Mortgage Markets.” Journal of Financial Economics, 123 (2017b), 4258.10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.028CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.; Deng, Y.; Gu, Q.; He, J.; Qian, W.; and Ren, Y.. “Mortgage Debt, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Monetary Policy Transmission.” Review of Finance, 26 (2022), 487520.10.1093/rof/rfac011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, S.; Driscoll, J. C.; and Laibson, D. I.. “Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed-Form Solution.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45 (2013), 591622.10.1111/jmcb.12017CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Amel, D.; Anenberg, E.; and Jorgensen, R.. “On the Geographic Scope of Retail Mortgage Markets.” In FEDS Notes. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2018).Google Scholar
An, X.; Cordell, L.; Geng, L.; and Lee, K.. “Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance.” Available at SSRN 3789349 (2021).10.2139/ssrn.3789349CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andersen, S.; Campbell, J. Y.; Nielsen, K. M.; and Ramadorai, T.. “Sources of Inaction in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market.” American Economic Review, 110 (2020), 31843230. 10.1257/aer.20180865.10.1257/aer.20180865CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Angrist, J. D.Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 19 (2001), 228.10.1198/07350010152472571CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Auclert, A.Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel.” American Economic Review, 109 (2019), 23332367.10.1257/aer.20160137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, S. R.; Farrokhnia, R. A.; Meyer, S.; Pagel, M.; and Yannelis, C.. “Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments.” NBER Working Paper No. 27097 (2020).10.3386/w27097CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beraja, M.; Fuster, A.; Hurst, E.; and Vavra, J.. “Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy.” NBER Working Paper No. 23270 (2017).10.3386/w23270CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, D. W.; Milbradt, K.; Tourre, F.; and Vavra, J.. “Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy.” NBER Working Paper No. 25157 (2019).10.3386/w25157CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cherry, S. F.; Jiang, E. X.; Matvos, G.; Piskorski, T.; and Seru, A.. “Government and Private Household Debt Relief During COVID-19.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2021).10.3386/w28357CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chetty, R.; Friedman, J. N.; Stepner, M.; and the Opportunity Insights Team . “The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data.” NBER Working Paper No. 27431 (2020).10.3386/w27431CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coibion, O.; Gorodnichenko, Y.; and Weber, M.. “Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View.” NBER Working Paper No. 27017 (2020).10.3386/w27017CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Das, S.; Kuhnen, C. M.; and Nagel, S.. “Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations.” Review of Financial Studies, 33 (2020), 395432.10.1093/rfs/hhz041CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeFusco, A. A., and Mondragon, J.. “No Job, No Money, No Refi: Frictions to Refinancing in a Recession.” Journal of Finance, 75 (2020), 23272376.10.1111/jofi.12952CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Maggio, M.; Kermani, A.; Keys, B. J.; Piskorski, T.; Ramcharan, R.; Seru, A.; and Yao, V.. “Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging.” American Economic Review, 107 (2017), 35503588.10.1257/aer.20141313CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Maggio, M.; Kermani, A.; and Palmer, C. J.. “How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel.” Review of Economic Studies, 87 (2020), 14981528.10.1093/restud/rdz060CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenbaum, M.; Rebelo, S.; and Wong, A.. “State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel.” NBER Working Paper No. 25152 (2018).10.3386/w25152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fuster, A.; Hizmo, A.; Lambie-Hanson, L.; Vickery, J.; and Willen, P. S.. “How Resilient is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic.” NBER Working Paper No. 28843 (2021).10.3386/w28843CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fuster, A.; Plosser, M.; Schnabl, P.; and Vickery, J.. “The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending.” Review of Financial Studies, 32 (2019), 18541899.10.1093/rfs/hhz018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerardi, K. S.; Lambie-Hanson, L.; and Willen, P. S.. “Racial Differences in Mortgage Refinancing, Distress, and Housing Wealth Accumulation During COVID-19.” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper (2021).10.21799/frbp.dp.2021.02CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerardi, K.; Willen, P.; and Zhang, D. H.. “Mortgage Prepayment, Race, and Monetary Policy.” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2020).10.29412/res.wp.2020.07CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodstein, R. M.Refinancing Trends Among Lower Income and Minority Homeowners During the Housing Boom and Bust.” Real Estate Economics, 42 (2014), 690723.10.1111/1540-6229.12032CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, E.; Meier, S.; and Toubia, O.. “Money Left on the Kitchen Table: Exploring Sluggish Mortgage Refinancing Using Administrative Data, Surveys, and Field Experiments.” Working Paper, Columbia University (2015).Google Scholar
Karger, E., and Rajan, A.. “Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments” (2020).10.2139/ssrn.3612828CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keys, B. J.; Pope, D. G.; and Pope, J. C.. “Failure to Refinance.” Journal of Financial Economics, 122 (2016), 482499.10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.031CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khatana, S. A. M., and Groeneveld, P. W.. “Health Disparities and the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic in the USA.” Journal of General Internal Medicine, 35 (2020), 24312432.10.1007/s11606-020-05916-wCrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kinder, M., and Ross, M.. “Reopening America: Low Wage Workers Have Suffered Badly from COVID-19 so Policy Makers Should Focus on Equity.” Brookings Institution (2020).Google Scholar
Laibson, D.; Maxted, P.; and Moll, B.. “Present Bias Amplifies the Household Balance-Sheet Channels of Macroeconomic Policy.” NBER Working Paper No. 29094 (2020).10.3386/w29094CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mullainathan, S., and Shafir, E.. “Scarcity.” Social Policy, 46 (2013), 231249.Google Scholar
Nothaft, F. E., and Chang, Y.. “Refinance and the Accumulation of Home Equity Wealth.” Building Assets Building Credit: Creating Wealth in Low-Income Communities, 71102 (2005).Google Scholar
Purtle, J.COVID-19 and Mental Health Equity in the United States.” Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology, 55 (2020), 969971.10.1007/s00127-020-01896-8CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
TransUnion. “Monthly Industry Snapshot: Financial Services.” TransUnion (2020).Google Scholar
Wallace, J., and Patrick, V.. “Life in Lockdown is Testing Parents’ Bandwidth, But There Are Ways to Protect Your Mental Energy.” Washington Post, Apr. 27, 2020.Google Scholar
Wong, A. “Refinancing and the Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption.” Working Paper, Princeton University (2019).Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Agarwal et al. supplementary material

Agarwal et al. supplementary material
Download Agarwal et al. supplementary material(File)
File 816.1 KB