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Remeasuring Business Cycles

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2009

Christina D. Romer
Christina D. Romer
Affiliation:
Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
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Abstract

This article evaluates the consistency of the NBER business cycle reference dates. It finds that the early reference dates are derived from detrended data, whereas the dates after 1927 are derived from data in levels. To evaluate the importance of this and other changes in technique, I derive a simple algorithm that matches the postwar NBER peaks and troughs closely. When this algorithm is applied to data for 1884 to 1940, the new prewar dates differ systematically from the NBER dates and challenge the conventional view that recessions have gotten shorter over time.

Type
Articles
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 54 , Issue 3 , September 1994 , pp. 573 - 609
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1994

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