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The 1789 Life Table of Edward Wigglesworth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2010

Maris A. Vinovskis
Maris A. Vinovskis
Affiliation:
Harvard University
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Extract

Systematic demographic analysis of early America has been neglected until quite recently. As the interest in and need for demographic data on pre-1800 America have increased during the last five years, efforts have been made to remedy this situation.The most recent studies are utilizing such new techniques as family reconstitution to avoid the problems created by the lack of reliable census data and vital statistics. But these techniques yield results very slowly, and in any case their results are subject to methodological limitations that make it necessary to check them against larger aggregates. For these reasons we need to reexamine the usefulness and accuracy of earlier studies on colonial population that were based on aggregate data. Unfortunately, this latter task has not been adequately carried out during the recent burst of activity among demographers of early America.

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Articles
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 31 , Issue 3 , September 1971 , pp. 570 - 590
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1971

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References

I am indebted to Bernard Bailyn, David M. Heer, and Kenneth A. Lockridge for reading an early version of this article and making useful suggestions, but I am solely responsible for any errors of judgment or fact.

1 For example, see Demos, John, “Notes on Life in Plymouth Colony,” William and Mary Quarterly, XXII (1965), 264–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Lockridge, Kenneth A., “The Population of Dedham, Massachusetts, 1636–1736,” Economic History Review, XIX (1966), 318–44Google Scholar; Greven, Philip J. Jr., “Family Structure in Seventeenth Century Andover, Massachusetts,” William and Mary Quarterly, XXIII (1966), 234–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2 At the present time there are several studies underway that will facilitate the study of colonial populations. For instance, Daniel Scott Smith at Berkeley is working on Hingham, Massachusetts; Bruce Steiner at Yale is investigating New Haven, Conn.; and Maris A. Vinovskis at Harvard is analyzing Salem, Massachusetts. Furthermore, Robert Wells of Union College has completed a demographic analysis of Quaker families and Darret B. Rutman of the University of New Hampshire is reconstituting families in Middlesex County, Virginia.

3 For a good overall view of early American demography, see Cassedy, James H., Demography in Early America: Beginnings of the Statistical Mind, 1660–1800 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1969).CrossRefGoogle Scholar However, though Cassedy's book provides an excellent catalogue of some of the sources and earlier works, it does not attempt to examine the accuracy or the methodology of many of the earlier demographic efforts. For a discussion and a critical analysis of some of the aggregate estimates of the population of colonial America, see Potter, J., “The Growth of Population to America, 1700–1860,” Population in History, ed. Glass, D. V. and Eversley, D. E. C. (London: Edward Arnold Ltd., 1965), pp. 631–88.Google Scholar

4 Wigglesworth, Edward, Calculations on American Population, with a Table for estimating the annual Increase of Inhabitants in the British Colonies: The Manner of its Construction Explained: and its Use Illustrated (Boston, 1775).Google Scholar

5 Wigglesworth, Edward, “A Table Shewing the Probability of the Duration, the Decrement, and the Expectation of Life, in the States of Massachusetts and New-Hampshire, formed from sixty-two Bills of Mortality on the files of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in the year 1789,”American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Memoirs, II, Part I (1793), 131–35.Google Scholar

6 For example, see Thompson, Warren S. and Whelpton, P. K., Population Trends in the United States (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1933), pp. 229–31Google Scholar; Dublin, Louis I., Lotka, Alfred J., AND Spiegelman, Mortimer, Length of Life: A Study of the Life Table, rev. ed. (New York: Ronald Press, 1949), pp. 35–36, 40, 42.Google Scholar

7 Yasuba, Yasukichi, Birth Rates of the White Population in the United States, 1800–1860: An Economic Study (The Johns Hopkins University Studies in Historical and Political Science, LXXIX, No. 2, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1962), 86–87.Google Scholar Recently there have been suggestions that Wigglesworth's population analysis deserves further attention. See Cassedy, p. 256.

8 Unfortunately there has been no adequate biography of Wigglesworth. This has been in large part due to the fact that few of his letters or personal material have survived. For some helpful assessments of his career, see Shipton, Clifton K., Sibley's Harvard Graduates, XII (Boston: Massachusetts Historical Society, 1965), 507–17Google Scholar; Lovett, Robert W., “Edward Wigglesworth, Merchant and Professor,” Harvard Library Bulletin, VII (1953), 130–34Google Scholar; Quincy, Josiah, The History of Harvard University, II (Cambridge, Mass., 1840), 261.Google Scholar

9 Cassedy, passim; On Benjamin Franklin, see Aldridge, Alfred O., “Franklin as Demographer,” The Journal Of Economic History, IX (1949–1950), 29–44Google Scholar; Spengler, Joseph J., “Malthusianism in Late Eighteenth Century America,” American Economic Review, XXV (1935), 691–707Google Scholar; Wetzel, W. A., Benjamin Franklin as an Economist (Baltimore, 1895)Google Scholar; Zirkle, Conway, “Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Malthus and the United States Census,” Isis, XLVIII (1957), 58–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Carey, Lewis J., Franklin's Economic Views (New York: Doubleday, 1928).Google Scholar On Ezra Stiles, see Morgan, Edmund S., The Gentle Puritans: A Life of Ezra Stiles, 1727–1795 (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1962).Google Scholar

10 Wigglesworth, Calculations on the American Population, pp. 6–7.

11 Cassedy, pp. 206–42.

12 There were few scientific societies in America before the Revolution. But the postwar period saw the creation of a series of scientific associations, such as the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, in Boston, that encouraged and supported systematic studies of population. Consequently, whereas pre-Revolutionary studies of population tended to be almost exclusively individual attempts, the existence of these scientific organizations made collective efforts feasible. See also Hindle, Brooke, The Pursuit of Science in Revolutionary America (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: University of North Carolina Press, 1956).Google Scholar

13 Chinard, Gilbert, “Eighteenth Century Theories of America as a Human Habitat,” American Philosophical Society, Proceedings, XCI (1947), 27–57.Google Scholar

14 Blake, John B., Public Health in the Town of Boston, 1630–1822 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1959)Google Scholar; Duffy, John, Epidemics in Colonial America (Baton Rouge, Louisiana: Louisiana State University Press, 1953)Google Scholar; Shyrock, Richard H., Medicine and Society in America: 1660–1860 (New York: New York University Press, 1960)Google Scholar; Mackie, Alexander, Facile Princeps: The Story of the Beginning of Life Insurance in America (Lancaster, Pa.: Presbyterian Ministers' Fund, 1956)Google Scholar; Gudmundsen, John, The Great Provider, the Dramatic Story of Life Insurance in America (South Norwalk, Conn.: Ind. Publications Company, 1959).Google Scholar

15 American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Records, I, 44. The manuscript records of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences for this early period are deposited at the Boston Athenaeum in Boston, Massachusetts. Hereafter these records will be cited as Records. Permission to use these records was kindly granted by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts.

16 Letter to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences from Edward Wigglesworth, August 14, 1781 in American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Papers, I, No. 18. Hereafter the collection of papers of the Academy will be cited as Papers.

17 Ibid.

18 Records, I, 49.

19 Cassedy, pp. 246–50.

20 Though the Massachusetts Congregational Charitable Fund did receive a charter from the Massachusetts legislature in 1785, the plan was abandoned before it was actually put into operation. Consequently, Wigglesworth's life table was never used for the purpose for which it had been constructed.

21 Wigglesworth, Edward, “Observations on the Longevity of the Inhabitants of Ipswich and Hingham, and Proposals for Ascertaining the Value of Estates held for Life, and the Reversion of Them,” American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Memoirs, I (1783), 565–68.Google Scholar

22 Ibid., p. 568.

23 Records, I, 65–66; On Richard Price, see Cone, Carl B., Torchbearer of Freedom: The influence of Richard Price on Eighteenth Century Thought (Lexington, Kentucky: University of Kentucky Press, 1952)Google Scholar; Thomas, Roland, Richard Price, Philosopher and Apostle of Liberty (London: Oxford University Press, 1924).Google Scholar

24 Letter to Joseph Willard from Edward Wigglesworth, October 6, 1785 in Papers, I, No. 63.

25 Ibid.

26 Ibid.

27 Abstract of letter to Joseph Willard from Richard Price, March 18, 1786 in Papers, I, No. 69.

28 Ibid.

29 Letter of Edward Wigglesworth to Richard Price, July 27, 1786, and Joseph Willard to Richard Price, July 29, 1786, both in Letters to and From Richard Price, D.D., F.R. (Cambridge Mass.: J. Wilson and Son, 1903), pp. 86–89.Google Scholar Edward Wigglesworth, Joseph Willard, and James Sullivan had been appointed as a committee to investigate the various proposals for a life insurance program for the Massachusetts Congregational Charitable Society.

30 Records, I, 81.

31 Ibid., p. 88.

32 Wigglesworth, , “A Table Shewing the Probability of the Duration … of Life,” American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Memoirs, II, Part I (1793), 131–35.Google Scholar Wigglesworth's life table was based on information from the states of New Hampshire and Massachusetts. However, at that time the present state of Maine was included as a part of Massachusetts so that all three states were included in his data.

33 For a detailed description of the construction of life tables, see Dublin, pp. 303–21; Barclay, George W., Techniques of Population Analysis (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1958), pp. 93–122, 286–305.Google Scholar

34 Price, Richard, Observations on Reversionary Payments; on Schemes for providing Annuities for Widows, and for Persons in Old Age; on the Method of Calculating the Values of Assurance on Lives; and on the National Debt. To which are added, Four Essays On different Subjects in the Doctrine of Life-Annuities and Political Arithmetick, 4th ed. (London, 1783)Google Scholar, 2 vols.

35 Ibid., I, 333–34. On stationary populations, see Barclay, pp. 131–33.

36 Price, Observations…, I, 335–78.

37 Wigglesworth, , “A Table Shewing the Probability of the Duration … of Life,” American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Memoirs, II, Part I (1793), 133.Google Scholar

38 Ibid., pp. 134–35.

39 Ibid.

40 Barclay, pp. 131–33.

41 Price, Observations …, I, 334–35. Another error was that in his article Wigglesworth said that the number of free white males in Massachusetts under sixteen was 95,453 and 87,189 over sixteen. But in the 1790 census (which he apparently used for his data) the number of white males under sixteen was 87,289 and 95,453 sixteen and over. Apparently he had inadvertently reversed the categories in the published article because in his actual calculations he used the data correctly (though he did underestimate the free white male population under sixteen by 100 in his calculations). [United States Bureau of Census], Heads of Families at the First Census of the United States Taken in the Year 1790: Massachusetts (Baltimore: Genealogical Book Co., 1966), p. 8.Google Scholar

42 On stable population analysis, see Coal, Ansley J. and Demeny, Paul, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1966), pp. 9–41Google Scholar; Keyfitz, Nathan, Introduction to Mathematics of Population (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Co., 1968), pp. 170–94Google Scholar; A. J. Coale, “Estimates of Various Demographic Measures through the Quasi-Stable Age Distribution,” in Milbank Fund, Emerging Techniques in Population Research, Proceedings of the 1962 Annual Conference of the Milbank Memorial Fund, pp. 175–93.

43 Yasuba, pp. 70–71.

44 Ibid., pp. 86–87.

45 For a brief discussion of the changing rates of growth in the colonial period, see Potter, pp. 648–49; Harris, P.M.G., “The Social Origins of American Leaders: The Demographic Foundations,” Perspectives in American History, III (1969), 159–344.Google Scholar

46 Wigglesworth, , “A Table Shewing the Probability of the Duration … of Life,” American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Memoirs, II, Part I (1793), 133.Google Scholar It is possible that the bills of mortality systematically underestimated the deaths of children. Though this is true in terms of under-registration of births and baptisms during the colonial period, it is probably less true with regard to deaths as they were collected for bills of mortality.

47 Using the formula where:

P1 = the number of people in the population at the initial date

P2 = the number of people at the later date

r = the annual rate of growth

n = exact number of years between P1 and P2

48 The population estimate for Massachusetts in 1765 is 244,149 according to Chickering, Jesse, A Statistical View of the Population of Massachusetts from 1765 to 1840 (Boston, 1846), p. 7.Google Scholar

49 Price, Observations …, I, 335–78. Letter to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences from Edward Wigglesworth, August 14, 1781 in Papers, I, No. 18.

50 Some of the correspondents who sent their bills of mortality warned Wigglesworth that their towns did not increase very rapidly because of emigration. See the letter from Manasseh Cutler to Edward Wigglesworth, February 14, 1783 in Life of Rev. Manasseh Cutler, edited by Cutler, William Parker and Cutler, Julia Perkins (Cincinnati, Ohio, 1888), II, 210–11.Google Scholar

51 Infra., pp. 16–17.

52 Cassedy, pp. 117–47; Blake, John B., “The Early History of Vital Records in Massachusetts,” Bulletin of the History of Medicine, XXIX (1955), 46–68.Google Scholar

53 The Massachusetts state tax of 1791 also included the present state of Maine. Felt, Joseph B., “Statistics of Taxation in Massachusetts including Valuation and Population,” American Statistical Association Collections, I (1847), 454–73.Google Scholar Though taxes did not accurately reflect the market value of the total wealth of an area, it was a useful approximation of the relative wealth of the various towns. For further details on the tax system, see Burbank, Harold H., “The General Property Tax in Massachusetts, 1775–1792, with some Consideration of Colonial and Provincial Legislation and Practices” (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Harvard University, 1915).Google Scholar

54 In computing the population represented by the bills of mortality, it was necessary to include the entire population of each town as given by the 1790 census, even though the bills of mortality sometimes only covered a smaller part of each town. Consequently, the percentage of the total population covered by the bills is slightly exaggerated.

55 Though factors such as male/female ratio, average family size, and the percentage of population under sixteen affect mortality rates, the differences between the sample and the population as a whole were small. Furthermore, the differences between the sample and the entire population within the individual states were also small.

56 Compiled from Felt, , “Statistics of Taxation …,” American Statistical Association Collections, I (1847), 454–73.Google Scholar

57 It is important to remember that the term town in New England did not mean an urban area necessarily, but was simply used to designate an administrative unit. On the relationship between urban size and mortality, see Jaffe, A. J. and Lourie, W. I. Jr., “An Abridged Life Table for the White Population of the United States in 1830,” Human Biology, XIV (1942), p. 357Google Scholar; Yasuba, pp. 73–101; Parkhurst, Elizabeth, “Differential Mortality in New York State, Exclusive of New York City, by Sex, Age, and Cause of Death, According to Degree of Urbanization,” American Journal of Public Health and the Nation's Health, XLVI (1956), 959–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar The sample still has a larger town size than the population as a whole, even when the data are broken down by individual states:

58 I am indebted to Daniel Scott Smith for bringing this point to my attention.