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Assessing North Korean Nuclear Intentions and Capacities: A New Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2016

Jacques E. C. Hymans
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Abstract

This article develops a novel assessment of the nuclear program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Using a theory-driven approach rooted in comparative foreign policy analysis, the article undermines two common assumptions about the DPRK nuclear threat: first, that the North Korean leadership's nuclear intentions are a measured response to the external environment and, second, that the DPRK has developed enough technical capacity to go nuclear whenever it pleases. In place of these assumptions, the article puts forth the general theoretical hypotheses that (1) the decision to go nuclear is rarely if ever based on typical cost-benefit analysis, and instead reflects deep-seated national identity conceptions, and (2) the capacity to go nuclear depends not only on raw levels of industrialization and nuclear technology, but also on the state's organizational acumen. Applied to the case of the DPRK, these hypotheses suggest that it has long been strongly committed to the goal of acquiring an operational nuclear deterrent, but also that it has been finding it very difficult to successfully implement that wish. The article also demonstrates that these hypotheses are supported by the meager evidence available on this case.

Keywords

comparative foreign policyDPRK (North Korea)national identity conceptionsneopatrimonialismnuclear proliferationregime type and state structuresultanistic regimesthreat assessment
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 8 , Issue 2 , August 2008 , pp. 259 - 292
Copyright
Copyright © East Asia Institute 

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References

Notes

The EAI Fellows Program on Peace, Governance, and Development in East Asia, supported by the Henry Luce Foundation, and Smith College helped underwrite the research for this article. Thanks to Kathryn Weathersby at the Woodrow Wilson Center and Bernd Schaefer at the German Historical Institute in Washington, DC for making historical documentation available to me. The article has benefited from many useful comments made by students and scholars at a dozen East Asian institutions of higher learning that I visited during my EAI Fellowship tour in May 2007. I subsequently presented this work at several American universities and at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association in 2007. Thanks especially to Stephan Haggard, Rieko Kage, Byung-Kook Kim, Dinshaw Mistry, Steve Noerper, William Potter, and two anonymous reviewers for their careful readings of earlier drafts of this article.Google Scholar

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14. Of course, external stimuli are necessary to put the question of going nuclear on the political agenda. But given the fear emotion's tendency to magnify external threats, those stimuli need not be very large. For the full elaboration of this model, see Hymans, , The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation, ch. 2.Google Scholar

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18. See Hymans, , The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation, especially pp. 195–203.Google Scholar

19. In truth, the eras of the father and the son are not so clearly distinguishable. Kim Jong Il began taking over much of the day-to-day business of the state as early as 1980; by the early-1990s nuclear crisis, it was clear that he, not his father, was calling most of the shots. Indeed, when Kim Il Sung met with Jimmy Carter during the nuclear crisis of 1994, he appeared almost as unfamiliar with his country's negotiating stance as Carter was with that of the Clinton administration. See Oberdorfer, Don, The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1997), p. 328.Google Scholar

20. Note that even in regimes where the general dominance of the top leadership is not so extreme, nuclear decisionmaking tends to be highly concentrated in its hands. See Poneman, Daniel, Nuclear Power in the Developing World (Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1982), ch. 9.Google Scholar

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35. Cumings, , Korea's Place in the Sun, p. 467. Other clear statements of DPRK nuclear weapons intent are reported in Oberdorfer, , The Two Koreas, p. 253.Google Scholar

36. Soviet Foreign Ministry memorandum, August 24, 1962, translated and reprinted in Szalontai and Radchenko, “North Korea's Efforts,” p. 33. Chol goes on to mention China's nuclear program, but clearly he is not talking only about China.Google Scholar

37. The report pointedly remarks that the North Korean translator chose not to render the latter sentence into German. Botschaft der DDR in der KVDR, “Aktenvermerk über ein Abendessen in der Residenz, das vom Gen. Botschafter Henke und seiner Gattin am 6. 12. 1969 in der Zeit von 19.30 Uhr bis 22.30 Uhr gegeben wurde,” Pyongyang, December 13, 1969, document viewed at the German Historical Institute in Washington, DC. My translation.Google Scholar

38. Hungarian Foreign Ministry memorandum, February 16, 1976, translated and reprinted in Szalontai, and Radchenko, , “North Korea's Efforts,” p. 55.Google Scholar

39. Szalontai, and Radchenko, , “North Korea's Efforts,” p. 10.Google Scholar

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41. The DPRK's report to the IAEA had not completely denied that these efforts had taken place, but it had been untruthful about their extent.Google Scholar

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50. See Clapham, Christopher S., Third World Politics: An Introduction (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1985). In this issue, Walter C. Clemens Jr. offers a broadly similar Weberian take on the DPRK case.Google Scholar

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52. Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland second the notion of the regime's extreme personalism in terms of economic policy. Haggard, and Noland, , Famine in North Korea, p. 227. For a great deal of instructive detail, see Martin, Bradley K., Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty (New York: Thomas Dunne Books [St. Martin's Griffin], 2006).Google Scholar

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54. The “Confucian” bureaucracy of imperial China, with its rigorous, objective, knowledge-based bureaucratic system of selection and advancement, clearly bears very little resemblance to the thoroughly politicized structures built by the Kims.Google Scholar

55. In this issue, Patrick McEachern makes a spirited case for interpreting the DPRK as a system in transition from “totalitarianism” to “institutional pluralism.” In particular, he claims that policymaking is increasingly influenced by state “technocrats,” notably in the foreign ministry and economic affairs. But to date there is little solid evidence of technocratic administration in North Korea, even if more state officials have university degrees than used to be the case. The International Country Risk Guide gives the DPRK a Bureaucratic Quality score of 0, the lowest possible score—and one shared by only nine other states in the entire world. And even McEachern admits that Kim Jong Il, who still plays the “central role,” has been steadily “personalizing his bureaucracy,” including the military. This suggests a trend away from technocratic administration.Google Scholar

56. Note that the DPRK's sultanism and its oppositional nationalism, though empirically intertwined, are analytically two separate aspects of its makeup; there is no logical requirement that sultanism and oppositional nationalism (and thus nuclear weapons ambitions) must go together.Google Scholar

57. For more on the basic tasks of management, see Milgrom, Paul and Roberts, John, Economics, Organization and Management (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1992).Google Scholar

58. The identification of a regime as sultanistic means that standard political science “bureaucratic politics” models will be useless for analyzing its decisionmaking. In sultanistic regimes, due to the penetration of state institutions by the top leader, there is no such thing as bureaucratic self-interest; bureaucrats pursue only personal self-interest.Google Scholar

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66. For more on the Chinese success story—and on its numerous brushes with failure—see Feigenbaum, Evan, China's Techno-Warriors: National Security and Strategic Competition from the Nuclear to the Information Age (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003); Lewis, John Wilson and Litai, Xue, China Builds the Bomb (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1988), and Ostrov, Benjamin C., Conquering Resources: The Growth and Decline of the PLA's Science and Technology Commission for National Defense (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1991).Google Scholar

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71. And the regime had also stopped inviting Soviet scientific visitors already by the early 1970s. Of course, since the end of the Cold War the DPRK may have recruited former Soviet scientists to help its program along, though its legendary xenophobia leads one to suspect that it would not put itself in a position of dependence on them. See Zhebin, Alexander, “A Political History of Soviet–North Korean Nuclear Cooperation,” in Moltz, James Clay and Mansourov, Alexandre Y., eds., The North Korean Nuclear Program: Security, Strategy, and New Perspectives from Russia (New York: Routledge, 2000), pp. 29–30.Google Scholar

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74. It is often claimed that the DPRK's missile program proves its capacity to succeed at high-tech R&D efforts. But the missile program is no world-beater. In the decade and a half since the DPRK's first, marginally successful, intermediate-range Nodong missile test of 1993, Iran and Pakistan as well as the DPRK have tested variants of the missile. About half of these tests have been modest successes and the other half disasters. As for the DPRK's longer-range missile development efforts—theoretically of much more concern to the United States—the booster rockets in the DPRK's “satellite launcher” (Taepodong-1) test of 1998 and in its long-range, multistage Paektusan missile (Taepodong-2) test of 2006 “failed dismally,” according to noted defense analyst Anthony Cordesman. Cordesman continues with a stern lesson for the scaremongers: “In the real world, it is only possible to talk about missile performance once a system is actually deployed and tested, its warhead is known, and enough firings have taken place to confirm actual operational capability. Computer models can help, but they have proved to be wrong again, and again, and again. Speculating about guidance platforms, warhead type of weight, the size of the booster, and other technical factors is guesswork—not fact” (Anthony Cordesman, “North Korea's Missile Tests: Saber Rattling or Rocket's Red Glare?” CSIS publication, July 5, 2006, available at www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060705_cordesman_korea.pdf). For more on the DPRK's 1993 and 1998 tests, see Bermudez, Joseph S., “A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK,” Center for Nonproliferation Studies Occasional Paper No. 2, 1999; for more on Iran's program and the DPRK connection, see Mistry, Dinshaw, “Assessing Iran's Missile Capabilities,” Arms Control Today, October 2007.Google Scholar

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76. N.B.: As I write these words, it is mid-January 2008.Google Scholar

77. Hamper, , but not prevent. “Disablement” is a neologism that has been invented in the context of the Six-Party Talks to indicate a step beyond a mere “freeze,” but not all the way to “dismantlement.” Theoretically, it would take about a year of effort to bring “disabled” nuclear facilities back into operation.Google Scholar

78. And as noted previously, McEachern in this issue argues that it may not be the case.Google Scholar

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80. Note, however, that qualitative interpretation must also be taken into account in making this judgment. Indeed, it is inescapable that qualitative choices will drive the quantitative results. These issues are explored in Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation, ch. 3; a complete explanation of coding procedures is also given in ch. 3 and in the book's appendix.Google Scholar

81. Quantitatively, this relationship is expressed as follows: (# of references to the key comparison other)/(# of references to key comparison other + # of references to wider communities in which we and they play a part). For heuristic purposes, one can think of a score greater than 0.5 as reflecting an “oppositional” identity.Google Scholar

82. Quantitatively, this relationship is expressed as follows: (# of “naked” references to key comparison other)/(# of “naked” references to key comparison other + # of “screened” references to key comparison other). For heuristic purposes, one can think of a score greater than 0.5 as reflecting a “nationalist” national identity.Google Scholar