Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-hc48f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T19:19:53.742Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Military Support of Citizens' Challenge in the Asian Industrialized Countries

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2016

Abstract

When do militaries in the newly industrialized countries of East and Southeast Asia support their governments, when do they support citizens' challenge of government, and when do they launch coups? We propose and test a theory of military behavior using data from across East and Southeast Asia between the 1970s and 2008. The results corroborate the model's predictions to make four contributions: First, the model provides a framework of military behavior for countries to expand study beyond coups or the absence thereof. Second, the findings bring to focus the influence of citizens on the military's behavior, an aspect largely overlooked in scholarship of the region. Third, the necessary conditions—weak economy and galvanized citizens' challenge—that affect the military's behavior vis-à -vis citizens and the government highlight the strategic interaction treatment. Fourth, this study broadens systematic treatment to enrich empirics and theory-building for the political economies of these countries.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 by the East Asia Institute 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alagappa, Muthiah, ed. 2001. Coercion and Governance: The Declining Political Role of the Military in Asia. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Ames, Barry. 1987. Political Survival: Politicians and Public Policy in Latin America. Edited by Barry, Robert Bates Brian and Popkin, Samuel. California Series on Social Choice and Political Economy. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ball, Nicole. 1981. The Military in the Development Process: A Guide to Issue. Claremont, CA: Regina Books.Google Scholar
Beeson, Mark. 2008. “Civil-Military Relations in Indonesia and the Philippines: Will the Thai Coup Prove Contagious?” Armed Forces and Society 34, 3: 474490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott. 1999. “Parametric Models, Duration Dependence, and Time-Varying Data Revisited.” American Journal of Political Science 43, 2: 256270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bunce, Valerie. 2003. “Rethinking Recent Democratization: Lessons from the Postcommunist Experience.” World Politics 55, 2: 167192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casper, Gretchen, and Tufis, Claudiu. 2003. “Correlation Versus Interchangeability: The Limited Robustness of Empirical Findings on Democracy Using Highly Correlated Data Sets.” Political Analysis 11, 2: 196203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Center for Systemic Peace. 2010. “Coups d'Etat, 1946-2010.” http://www.systemicpeace.org (accessed August 11, 2014).Google Scholar
Chan, Steve. 2003. “Extended Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Learning from Rationalist Explanations in International Relations.” World Affairs 166, 2: 109125.Google Scholar
Chandra, Siddharth, and Kammen, Douglas Anton. 2002. “Generating Reforms and Reforming Generations: Military Politics in Indonesia's Democratic Transition and Consolidation.” World Politics 55, 1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clifford, Mark L. 1998. Troubled Tiger: Businessmen, Bureaucrats, and Generals in South Korea. Rev. ed. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul. 2010. “The Political Economy of Natural Resources.” Social Research 77, 4: 11051132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Colomer, Josep M. 1991. “Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way.” American Political Science Review 85, 4: 12831302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppedge, Michael. 2002. “Democracy and Dimensions: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen.” Comparative Political Studies 35, 1: 3539.Google Scholar
Cottey, Andrew, Edmunds, Timothy, and Forster, Anthony. 2002. “The Second Generation Problematic: Rethinking Democracy and Civil-Military Relations.” Armed Forces and Society 29, 1: 3156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Danopoulos, Constantine, and Chopani, Adem. 1997. “Departying and Democratizing Civil-Military Relations in Albania.” In To Sheathe the Sword: Civil Military Relations in the Quest for Democracy, ed. Lovell, John and Albright, David. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Deng, Fang. 1997. “Information Gaps and Unintended Outcomes of Social Movements: The 1989 Chinese Student Movement.” American Journal of Sociology 102, 4: 10851112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Desch, Michael C. 1999. Civilian Control of the Military: The Changing Security Environment. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M. 2001. “A Developmental Model of Heterogeneous Economic Voting in New Democracies.” American Political Science Review 95, 4: 895910.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feaver, Peter. 1999. “Civil-Military Relations.” Annual Review of Political Science 2: 211241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Federation of American Scientists. 2006. “World Intelligence and Security Agencies.” http://www.fas.org/irp/world (accessed October 31, 2010).Google Scholar
Fitch, J. Samuel. 1998. The Armed Forces and Democracy in Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Fowler, James. 1999. “The United States and South Korean Democratization.” Political Science Quarterly 114, 2: 265288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedom, House. 1975-2010. Freedom in the World. Washington, DC: Freedom House.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer. 2008. “Dictatorial Institutions and Their Impact on Economic Growth.” European Journal of Sociology 49, 1: 330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ghosn, Faten, Palmer, Glenn, and Bremer, Stuart. 2004. “The MID3 Data Set, 1993-2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21: 133154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Großer, Günter and Weinert, Günter. 1986. “World Economy: Restrained Expansion in 1986.” Intereconomics January/Feburary 1986: 5356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guo, Gang. 2009. “China's Local Political Budget Cycles.” American Journal of Political Science 53, 3: 621632.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haggard, Stephan. 1990. Pathways from the Periphery: The Politics of Growth in the Newly Industrializing Countries. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan. 1999. “Governance and Growth: Lessons from the Asian Economic Crisis.” Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 13, 2: 3042.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haggard, Stephan. 2004. “Institutions and Growth in East Asia.” Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID) 38, 4: 5381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, and Kaufman, Robert R. 1997. “The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions.” Comparative Politics 29, 3: 263283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hahm, Sung Deuk, and Kim, Kwang Woong. 1999. “Institutional Reforms and Democratization in Korea: The Case of the Kim Young Sam Administration, 1993-1998.” Governance 12, 4: 479494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Han, Sung-Joo. 1988. “South Korea in 1987: The Politics of Democratization.” Asian Survey 28, 1: 5261.Google Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 1998. “The Political Relevance of Political Trust.” American Political Science Review 92, 4: 791808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hunter, Wendy. 1998. “Negotiating Civil-Military Relations in Post-Authoritarian Argentina and Chile.” International Studies Quarterly 42, 2: 295317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, Samuel. 1957. The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Jackman, Robert W., and Miller, Ross A. 1996. “A Renaissance of Political Culture?” American Journal of Political Science 40, 3: 632659.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jensen, Nathan, and Wantchekon, Leonard. 2004. “Resource Wealth and Political Regimes in Africa.” Comparative Political Studies 37, 7: 816841.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeon, Jei Guk. 1994. “The Political Economy of Crisis Management in the Third World: A Comparative Study of South Korea and Taiwan (1970s).” Pacific Affairs 67, 4: 565585.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahane, Leo. 2009. “It's the Economy, and Then Some: Modeling the Presidential Vote with State Panel Data.” Public Choice 139, 3/4: 343356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert. 1992. “Political Regime Change: Structure and Process-Driven Explanations?” American Political Science Review 86, 4: 10281034.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korea Annual. 1980-2004. Korea: Yonhap News Agency.Google Scholar
Kwon, Hyeok Yong. 2005. “Targeting Public Spending in a New Democracy: Evidence from South Korea.” British Journal of Political Science 35, 2: 321341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawson, Stephanie. 1993. “Conceptual Issues in the Comparative Study of Regime Change and Democratization.” Comparative Political Studies 25, 2: 183205.Google Scholar
Lee, Chong-Sik. 1980. “South Korea 1979: Confrontation, Assassination, and Transition.” Asian Survey 20, 1: 6376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Eliza W. Y., and Shamsul Haque, M. 2006. “The New Public Management Reform and Governance in Asian NICs: A Comparison of Hong Kong and Singapore.” Governance 19, 4: 605626.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Hahn-Been. 1981. “The Prospects for Democracy in Korea.” Asian Affairs 8, 5: 281286.Google Scholar
Lee, Terence. 2009. “The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia.” Comparative Political Studies 42, 5: 640669.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, Monty. 2013. Polity IV Project: Dataset Users' Manual. Edited by Monty Marshall, Ted Robert Gurr, and Keith Jaggers. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty and Marshall, Donna, 2011. Coup d'Etat Events, 1946-2010 Codebook. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace.Google Scholar
Mason, T. David, and Clements, Jonathan. 2002. “Tiananmen Square Thirteen Years After: The Prospects for Civil Unrest in China.” Asian Affairs 29, 3: 159188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mattes, Robert, and Bratton, Michael. 2007. “Learning About Democracy in Africa: Awareness, Performance, and Experience.” American Journal of Political Science 51, 1: 192217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKibbin, Warwick. 1989. “The World Economy from 1979 to 1988: Results from the MSG2 Model.” In Global Linkages: Macroeconomic Interdependence and Cooperation in the World Economy, ed. McKibbin, Warwick and Sachs, Jeffrey. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Mishler, William, and Rose, Richard. 1997. “Trust, Distrust and Skepticism: Popular Evaluations of Civil and Political Institutions in Post-Communist Societies.” Journal of Politics 59, 2: 418451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moon, Myung-Jae, and Ingraham, Patricia. 1998. “Shaping Administrative Reform and Governance: An Examination of the Political Nexus Triads in Three Asian Countries.” Governance 11, 1: 77100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, Will H. 1995. “Rational Rebels: Overcoming the Free-Rider Problem.” Political Research Quarterly 48, 2: 417454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrison, Kevin. 2007. “Natural Resources, Aid, and Democratization: A Best-Case Scenario.” Public Choice 131: 365386.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nepstad, Sharon. 2013. “Mutiny and Nonviolence in the Arab Spring: Exploring Military Defections and Loyalty in Egypt, Bahrain, and Syria.” Journal of Peace Research 50, 3: 337349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nordlinger, Eric. 1977. Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Oh, John Kie-Chang. 1999. Korean Politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richardson, Ray, and Kim, Byung Whan. 1986. “Adjustments to Policy Changes: The Case of Korea, 1960-1985.” Development Research Department Discussion Paper, World Bank.Google Scholar
Savada, Andrea, and Shaw, William, ed. 1992. South Korea: A Country Study. Washington, DC: Federal Research Division.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2002. “Elections Without Democracy: The Menu of Manipulation.” Journal of Democracy 13, 2: 3650.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stepan, Alfred. 1988. Rethinking Military Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stepan, Alfred, ed. 1973. Authoritarian Brazil: Origins, Policies and Future. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Suh, Dae-Sook. 1983. “South Korea in 1982: A Centennial Year.” Asian Survey 23, 1: 94101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Treisman, Daniel, and Gimpelson, Vladimir. 2001. “Political Business Cycles and Russian Elections, or the Manipulations of ‘Chudar.’” British Journal of Political Science 31, 2: 225246.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United States Government Statement. June 19, 1989. “United States Government Statement on the Events in Kwangju, Republic of Korea, in May 1980.” http://seoul.usembassy.gov/backgrounder.html.Google Scholar
van Belle, Douglas A. 1996. “Leadership and Collective Action: The Case of Revolution.” International Studies Quarterly 40, 1: 107132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vemby, Kare. 2007. “Strikes Are More Common in Countries with Majoritarian Electoral Systems.” Public Choice 132, 1/2: 6584.Google Scholar
Weeks, Gregory. 2003. The Military and Politics in Postauthoritarian Chile. Tuscaloosa: University of Alabama Press.Google Scholar
Yap, O. Fiona. 2003. “Non-Electoral Responsiveness Mechanisms: Evidence from the Asian Less Democratic Newly Industrializing Countries.” British Journal of Political Science 33, 3: 491514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yap, O. Fiona. 2005. “Bargaining in the Less-Democratic NICs: Model and Evidence from South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 17, 3: 283289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yap, O. Fiona. 2011. “Informal Accountability, Credible Actions, and Democratization in Taiwan.” Constitutional Political Economy 22, 2: 103121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yap, O. Fiona. 2013. “Economic Performance and Democratic Support in Asia's Emergent Democracies.” Comparative Political Studies 46, 4: 48512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zafirovski, Milan Z. 1999. “Public Choice Theory for Political Sociology.” International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society 12, 3: 465502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zanger, Sabine. 2000. “A Global Analysis of the Effect of Political Regime Changes on Life Integrity Violations, 1977-93.” Journal of Peace Research 37, 2: 231233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar