Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T08:45:25.020Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

POPULATION GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT, AND LIVELIHOODS: THE TRIPLE CHALLENGE

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 February 2017

John Cleland
John Cleland*
Affiliation:
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
*
Address correspondence to: Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT (email: [email protected]).
Get access

Abstract

Over the next 35 years, the total population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase by 118%, with a greater rise of of 156% of people in the prime working ages. To cope with population growth and exploit the slowly unfolding, favorable change in age structure, countries face a triple challenge. Agricultural productivity has to improve. Prospects are good, though climate change remains a threat. Manufacturing jobs need to be created on a far larger scale than hitherto. Success is uncertain because much depends on foreign investors and the actions of competing low-wage countries in Asia. The third challenge concerns the non-agricultural informal sector, which, even under optimistic assumptions about manufacturing, will continue to provide livelihoods for a large segment of the population. Entrepreneurship needs to be encouraged so that an increasing proportion of family enterprises evolve into larger businesses. There is no blueprint to achieve this evolution and much will depend on the hard work and ingenuity of individuals.

Keywords

Africapopulation growthemploymentlivelihoods
Type
Essays
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 83 , Issue 1: Short Essays on African Demography and Economic Development , March 2017 , pp. 51 - 61
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Balchin, N., Gelb, S., Kennan, J., Martin, H., William te Velde, D. and Williams, C. (2016) Developing Export-based Manufacturing in sub-Saharan Africa. London: Overseas Development Institute.Google Scholar
Byamugisha, F. F. K. (2013) Securing Africa's Land for Shared Prosperity: A Program to scale up Reforms and Investments. Washington DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Ceglowski, J., Golub, S. S., Mbaye, A. A. and Prasad, V. (2015) Can Africa Compete with China in Manufacturing? The Role of Relative Labor Costs. Cape Town: University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit Working Paper 201504.Google Scholar
Chen, G., Geiger, M. and Fu, M. (2015) Manufacturing FDI in sub-Saharan Africa: Trends, Determinants, and Impact. Washington DC: World Bank Group.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul and Dercon, Stefan (2014) African agriculture in 50 years: Smallholders in a rapidly changing world? World Development 63, 92–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dinh, H. T., Palmade, V., Chandra, V. and Cossar, F. (2012) Light Manufacturing in Africa: Targeted Policies to Enhance Private Investment and Create Jobs. Washington DC: World Bank, Africa Development Forum Series.Google Scholar
Eastwood, Robert and Lipton, Michael (2011) Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be? Population Studies 65 (1), 9–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filmer, D. and Fox, L. (2014) Youth Employment in sub-Saharan Africa. Washington DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Fox, L. and Pimhidzai, O. (2011) Is Informality Welfare-enhancing Structural Transformation? Evidence from Uganda. Washington DC: World Bank Africa Region, Policy Research Working Paper 5866.Google Scholar
Fox, L., Haines, C., Munoz, J. H. and Thomas, A. (2013) Africa's Got Work to do: Employment Prospects in the New Century. Washington DC: IMF Working Paper 13/201.Google Scholar
Gupta, Sanjeev, Pattillo, Catherine A. and Wagh, Smita (2009) Effect of remittances on poverty and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development 37 (1), 104–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hungi, N., Makua, D., Ross, K., Saito, M., Dolata, S., van Cappelle, F., Paviot, L. and Vellien, J. (2010) SACMEQ III Project Results: Pupil Achievement levels in Reading and Mathematics. Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality (SACMEQ) Working Document No 1.Google Scholar
ILO (2012) Africa's Response to the Youth Unemployment Crisis. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
IMF (2015) Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating Headwinds. Washington DC: IMF.Google Scholar
IMF (2016) Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa: Time for a Policy Reset. Washington DC: IMF.Google Scholar
Jayne, T. S., Mason, N., Myers, R., Mason, N., Myers, R., Ferris, J., Mather, D., Beaver, M., Lenski, N., Chapoto, A. and Boughton, D. (2010) Patterns and Trends in Food Staples Markets in Eastern and Southern Africa: Towards Identification of Priority Investments and Strategies for Developing markets and Promoting Smallholder Productivity Growth. East Lancing, MI: Michegan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Working Paper No 104.Google Scholar
Leke, A., Lund, S., Roxburgh, C. and van Wamelen, A. (2010) What's Driving Africa's Growth? Washington DC: McKinsey & Co.Google Scholar
Lipton, M. (2005) The Family Farm in a Globalizing World: The Role of Crop Science in Alleviating Poverty. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, Discussion Paper No 40.Google Scholar
Ogundari, Kolawole (2014) The paradigm of agricultural efficiency and its implications on food security in Africa: What does meta-analysis reveal? World Development 64, 690–702.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
UNCTAD (2014) Economic Development in Africa: Catalysing Investment for Transformative Growth in Africa. Vienna: UNCTAD.Google Scholar
UNIDO (2013) Industrial Development Report 2013: Sustaining Employment Growth: The Role of Manufacturing and Structural Change. Vienna: UNIDO.Google Scholar
World Bank (2012) World Development Report 2013: Jobs. Washington DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2015) Ethiopia: Poverty Assessment 2104. Washington DC: World Bank Africa Region, Report No AU6744.Google Scholar
World Bank Group (2016) Global Monitoring Report 2015/16: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change. Washington DC: World Bank.Google Scholar