Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T04:56:13.009Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

CHILDHOOD MORTALITY, CHILDHOOD MORBIDITY, AND SUBSEQUENT FERTILITY DECISIONS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 May 2017

Marwân-al-Qays Bousmah
Marwân-al-Qays Bousmah*
Affiliation:
Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS and EHESS
*
Address correspondence to: Marwân-al-Qays Bousmah, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, 2 rue de la Charité, 13002 Marseille, France; e-mail: [email protected].
Get access

Abstract:

The effects of childhood mortality and morbidity on the fertility decision-making process are analyzed using longitudinal micro data from a Senegalese rural community, for the period 1984–2011. I attempt to identify the effect of individual child mortality, and also that of community child mortality and morbidity, on subsequent fertility choices. The results provide consistent support for both the child-replacement hypothesis and the precautionary demand for children. I find that community child mortality and morbidity attributable to malaria, which capture changes in the epidemiological context, exert a joint influence on fertility behaviors. Community-level malaria incidence among children has a positive effect on subsequent fertility choices, and this positive effect is stronger the more the disease is fatal to children who are infected. This study highlights the role of morbidity, acting through the relative risk of dying from the disease, on the slow fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords

fertilitychild mortalitychild morbiditymalariasub-Saharan Africareplacement and insurance effectsC23I15J13
Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 83 , Issue 2 , June 2017 , pp. 211 - 244
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I am indebted to three anonymous referees and to the editor for their valuable comments and suggestions, which greatly helped improve the paper. I am also grateful to Mohammad Abu-Zaineh, Raouf Boucekkine, Valérie Delaunay, Anne Lovell, Aline Munier, Daria Onori, Luis Sagaon Teyssier, Bruno Ventelou, and Maame Esi Woode for their help in various stages of this work. I am solely responsible for any remaining errors. This work has been carried out thanks to the support of the A*MIDEX project (no. ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02) funded by the “Investissements d’Avenir” French Government program, managed by the French National Research Agency (ANR).

References

REFERENCES

Akay, Alpaslan (2012) Finite-sample comparison of alternative methods for estimating dynamic panel data models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 27 (7), 1189–1204.Google Scholar
Aksan, Anna-Maria (2014) Effects of childhood mortality and morbidity on the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review 40 (2), 311–329.Google Scholar
Aksan, Anna-Maria and Chakraborty, Shankha (2013) Childhood disease and the precautionary demand for children. Journal of Population Economics 26 (3), 1–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aksan, Anna-Maria and Chakraborty, Shankha (2014) Mortality versus morbidity in the demographic transition. European Economic Review 70, 470–492.Google Scholar
Alkire, Sabina and Santos, Maria Emma (2010) Acute Multidimensional Poverty: A New Index for Developing Countries. Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative working paper 38.Google Scholar
Al-Qudsi, Sulayman (1998) The demand for children in Arab countries: Evidence from panel and count data models. Journal of Population Economics 11 (3), 435–452.Google Scholar
Angeles, Luis (2010) Demographic transitions: Analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility. Journal of Population Economics 23 (1), 99–120.Google Scholar
Baiden, Frank, Bawah, Ayaga, Biai, Sidu, Binka, Fred, Boerma, Ties, Byass, Peter, Chandramohan, Daniel, Chatterji, Somnath, Engmann, Cyril, Greet, Dieltiens, Jakob, Robert, Kahn, Kathleen, Kunii, Osamu, Lopez, Alan D., Murray, Christopher J. L., Nahlen, Bernard, Rao, Chalapati, Sankoh, Osman, Setel, Philip W., Shibuya, Kenji, Soleman, Nadia, Wright, Linda, and Yang, Gonghuan (2007) Setting international standards for verbal autopsy. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 85 (8), 570–571.Google Scholar
Balakrishnan, T. R. (1978) Effects of child mortality on subsequent fertility of women in some rural and semi-urban areas of certain Latin American countries. Population Studies 32 (1), 135–145.Google Scholar
Bhalotra, Sonia and van Soest, Arthur (2008) Birth-spacing, fertility and neonatal mortality in India: Dynamics, frailty, and fecundity. Journal of Econometrics 143 (2), 274–290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bongaarts, John and Casterline, John (2013) Fertility transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa different? Population and Development Review 38 (s1), 153–168.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bongaarts, John, Frank, Odile, and Lesthaeghe, Ron (1984) The proximate determinants of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review 10 (3), 511–537.Google Scholar
Boucekkine, Raouf, Desbordes, Rodolphe, and Latzer, Hélène (2009) How do epidemics induce behavioral changes? Journal of Economic Growth 14 (3), 233–264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bousmah, Marwân-al-Qays (2017) The effect of child mortality on fertility behaviors is non-linear: New evidence from Senegal. Review of Economics of the Household 15 (1), 93–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Lee, Ronald D. (1983) Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries: A Summary of Knowledge. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Cervellati, Matteo, Esposito, Elena, and Sunde, Uwe (2017) Long-term exposure to malaria and development: Disaggregate evidence for contemporaneous Africa. Journal of Demographic Economics 83 (1), 129–148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delaunay, Valerie, Douillot, Laetitia, Diallo, Aldiouma, Dione, Djibril, Trape, Jean-François, Medianikov, Oleg, Raoult, Didier, and Sokhna, Cheikh (2013) Profile: The Niakhar health and demographic surveillance system. International Journal of Epidemiology 42 (4), 1002–1011.Google Scholar
Delaunay, Valérie, Etard, Jean-François, Préziosi, Marie-Pierre, Marra, Adama, and Simondon, François (2001) Decline of infant and child mortality rates in rural Senegal over a 37-year period (1963–1999). International Journal of Epidemiology 30 (6), 1286–1293.Google Scholar
Delaunay, Valérie, Marra, Adama, Levi, Pierre, and Etard, Jean-François (2002) Niakhar DSS, Senegal. In INDEPTH Network (ed.), Population and health in developing countries, Vol. 1: Population, health and survival at INDEPTH sites, pp. 279–285. Ottawa: International Development Research Centre.Google Scholar
Doepke, Matthias (2005) Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?. Journal of Population Economics 18 (2), 337–366.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Zvi, Mira, Pedro, and Wolpin, Kenneth I. (1999) A quantitative analysis of Swedish fertility dynamics: 1751–1990. Review of Economic Dynamics 2 (1), 137–165.Google Scholar
Etard, Jean-François, Le Hesran, Jean-Yves, Diallo, Aldiouma, Diallo, Jean-Pierre, Ndiaye, Jean-Louis, and Delaunay, Valérie (2004) Childhood mortality and probable causes of death using verbal autopsy in Niakhar, Senegal, 1989–2000. International Journal of Epidemiology 33 (6), 1286–1292.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galor, Oded (2005) From stagnation to growth: unified growth theory. In , Philippe Aghion, and , Steven N. Durlauf, (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, pp. 171–294. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Grummer-Strawn, Laurence M., Stupp, Paul W., and Mei, Zuguo (1998) Effect of a child's death on birth spacing: A cross-national analysis. In Montgomery, Mark R. and Cohen, Barney (eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, pp. 39–73. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.Google Scholar
Handa, Sudhanshu (2000) The impact of education, income, and mortality on fertility in Jamaica. World Development 28 (1), 173–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, James J. (1981). The incidental parameters problem and the problem of initial conditions in estimating a discrete time-discrete data stochastic process. In Manski, Charles F. and McFadden, Daniel (eds.), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, pp. 179–195. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Hossain, Mian Bazle, Phillips, James F., and LeGrand, Thomas K. (2007) The impact of childhood mortality on fertility in six rural thanas of Bangladesh. Demography 44 (4), 771–784.Google Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2003) A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment. Journal of Development Economics 70 (1), 103–118.Google Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2008) The uncertain lifetime and the timing of human capital investment. Journal of Population Economics 21 (3), 557–572.Google Scholar
Kiszewski, Anthony E., Mellinger, Andrew, Spielman, Andrew, Malaney, Pia, Sachs, Sonia Ehrlich, and Sachs, Jeffrey D. (2004) A global index representing the stability of malaria transmission. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 70 (5), 486–498.Google Scholar
Kiszewski, Anthony E. and Teklehaimanot, Awash (2004) A review of the clinical and epidemiologic burdens of epidemic malaria. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 71 (s2), 128–135.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lindstrom, David P. and Kiros, Gebre-Egziabher (2007) The impact of infant and child death on subsequent fertility in Ethiopia. Population Research and Policy Review 26 (1), 31–49.Google Scholar
Lloyd, Cynthia B. and Ivanov, Serguey (1988) The effects of improved child survival on family planning practice and fertility. Studies in Family Planning 19 (3), 141–161.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mason, Karen Oppenheim (1997) Explaining fertility transitions. Demography 34 (4), 443–454.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
McCord, Gordon C., Conley, Dalton, and Sachs, Jeffrey D. (2010). Improving Empirical Estimation of Demographic Drivers: Fertility, Child Mortality & Malaria Ecology. Social Science Research Network Working paper, July 23, 2010.Google Scholar
Mira, Pedro (2007) Uncertain infant mortality, learning, and life-cycle fertility. International Economic Review 48 (3), 809–846.Google Scholar
Mondain, Nathalie, LeGrand, Thomas K., and Delaunay, Valérie (2004) L’évolution de la polygamie en milieu rural sénégalais: Institution en crise ou en mutation? Cahiers Québécois de Démographie 33 (2), 273–308.Google Scholar
Montgomery, Mark R. (1998) Learning and lags in mortality perceptions. In Montgomery, Mark R. and Cohen, Barney (eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, pp. 112–137. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.Google Scholar
Montgomery, Mark R. and Cohen, Barney (1998) From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.Google Scholar
Munier, Aline, Diallo, Aldiouma, Cot, Michel, Ndiaye, Ousmane, Arduin, Pascal, and Chippaux, Jean-Philippe (2009a) Anti-malarial prescriptions in three health care facilities after the emergence of chloroquine resistance in Niakhar, Senegal (1992–2004). Malaria Journal 8, 83.Google Scholar
Munier, Aline, Diallo, Aldiouma, Marra, Adama, Cot, Michel, Arduin, Pascal, Ndiaye, Ousmane, Mboup, Balla Mbacké, Gning, Barnabé, and Chippaux, Jean-Philippe (2009b) Evolution of malaria mortality and morbidity after the emergence of chloroquine resistance in Niakhar, Senegal. Malaria Journal 8, 270.Google Scholar
Ndiaye, Cheikh A. T., Delaunay, Valérie, and Adjamagbo, Agnès (2003) Connaissance et utilisation des méthodes contraceptives en milieu rural Sereer au Sénégal. Cahiers d'Etudes et de Recherches Francophones/Santé 13 (1), 31–37.Google Scholar
Ndiaye, Ousmane, Le Hesran, Jean-Yves, Etard, Jean-François, Diallo, Aldiouma, Simondon, François, Ward, Michael Neil, and Robert, Vincent (2001) Variations climatiques et mortalité attribuée au paludisme dans la zone de Niakhar, Sénégal, de 1984 à 1996. Cahiers d'Etudes et de Recherches Francophones/Santé 11 (1), 25–33.Google Scholar
Nguyen-Dinh, Huan (1997) A socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of fertility: The case of Vietnam. Journal of Population Economics 10 (3), 251–271.Google Scholar
Olsen, Randall J. (1980). Estimating the effect of child mortality on the number of births. Demography 17 (4), 429–443.Google Scholar
Olsen, Randall J. and Wolpin, Kenneth I. (1983) The impact of exogenous child mortality on fertility: A waiting time regression with dynamic regressors. Econometrica 51 (3), 731–49.Google Scholar
Robert, Vincent, Dieng, Hamady, Lochouarn, Laurence, Traore, Sekou Fantamady, Trape, Jean-François, Simondon, François, and Fontenille, Didier (1998) La transmission du paludisme dans la zone de Niakhar, Sénégal. Tropical Medicine & International Health 3 (8), 667–677.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, Mark R. and Schultz, T. Paul (1983) Consumer demand and household production: The relationship between fertility and child mortality. American Economic Review 73 (2), 38–42.Google Scholar
Sachs, Jeffrey D. and Malaney, Pia (2002) The economic and social burden of malaria. Nature 415 (6872), 680–685.Google Scholar
Sah, Raaj K. (1991). The effects of child mortality changes on fertility choice and parental welfare. Journal of Political Economy 99 (3), 582–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schellekens, Jona and van Poppel, Frans (2012) Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: Child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860–1939. Demography 49 (3), 965–988.Google Scholar
Schultz, T. Paul (1997) Demand for children in low income countries. In Rosenzweig, Mark R. and Stark, Oded (eds.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, vol. 1, pp. 349–430. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Taylor, Carl E., Newman, Jeanne S., and Kelly, Narindar U. (1976) The child survival hypothesis. Population Studies 30 (2), 263–278.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Weil, David N. (2017) Gyrations in African mortality and their effect on economic growth. Journal of Demographic Economics 83 (1), 103–110.Google Scholar
Wolpin, Kenneth I. (1984) An estimable dynamic stochastic model of fertility and child mortality. Journal of Political Economy 92 (5), 852–74.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2005) Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of Applied Econometrics 20 (1), 39–54.Google Scholar