106 Cumulative Cancer Location Incidence and Cancer Progression in an Active Surveillance Cohort

Abstract

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Prostate cancer is the 2nd most common cancer among men. 1/3 of these men have a slow-growing disease that can be managed without intervention. Instead of treatment, they can enter an active surveillance program. The goal of this study is to examine if cumulative cancer location can predict one’s disease progression and be used as a clinical marker. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This is a retrospective cohort study consisting of men with Gleason Grade 1 prostate cancer enrolled in the Active Surveillance Program at Johns Hopkins. The cohort includes men who were enrolled in the program from 2007 to 2015 before prostate biopsies incorporated multiparametric MRI as of the prostate. We will assess if cumulative cancer location (CCLO), a sum of the total number of histological cancer-positive locations on diagnostic and confirmatory biopsy, can predict grade progression, adverse findings on radical prostatectomy findings, or protocol-based discontinuation. Kaplan Meier survival analyses and multivariable Cox regression will be used to determine if stratifying by CCLO can predict these outcomes. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We included 1298 men in this study. The study will analyze variables that will be used in multivariable regression. Some variables of interest include age at diagnosis, PSA, PSA density, race/ethnicity, and number of positive cores. We expect that greater variability of tumor location, a higher CCLO score, will lead to more grade progression, protocol-based discontinuation, shorter time on active surveillance and adverse findings after radical prostatectomy. This hypothesis is based on a 2018 study that determined cancer location as a significant predictor of progression at the time of biopsy. Results will be discussed in full at the conference. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Finding a predictive marker of progression at the time of biopsy is clinically significant and can lead to adjusted patient observation and testing while on active surveillance. This will better stratify men on active surveillance, determine who would benefit from genetic testing, and better counsel patients as to how long they will be on surveillance.