Published online by Cambridge University Press: 31 July 2008
An analysis of Maori fertility shows that a transition from a high to a low level has begun. The crude birth rate has declined by nearly 28% during the period 1961–72; only a small part of this decline can be attributed to changes in the age–sex and marital status composition.
A substantial decline in the fertility of older women has been observed and there are indications of the beginning of a major decline in the fertility of younger women. Since women aged 30–49 still account for 30% of total fertility there is enough potential for a further fertility decline in the later child-bearing years.
Age patterns of fertility decline suggest that inter-marriage between Pakehas and Maoris is not a prime cause of the recent fertility decline. The factors which are thought to be responsible for this change in Maori fertility are rapid urbanization, a low level of infant mortality and an increase in the overall level of education.
A further decline in Maori fertility will depend on the continuation of the tendency in fertility among the younger women.