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The outcome of a general spatial epidemic on the line

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

M. J. Faddy
M. J. Faddy*
Affiliation:
University of Birmingham
*
∗ Department of Statistics, University of Birmingham, P.O. Box 363, Birmingham B 15 2TT, U.K.
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Abstract

The general (non-spatial) stochastic epidemic is extended to allow infective individuals to move forward through a system of spatially connected locations · ··, L1, L2, · ·· (on the line) each containing susceptible individuals and the outcome of the epidemic in each of these locations is then considered. In the deterministic case, a (spatial) equilibrium solution and threshold behaviour are discussed. In the stochastic case, a (spatial) quasi-equilibrium behaviour (conditional on sufficient numbers of infectives present) is discussed; numerical results suggest some correspondence between this stochastic quasi-equilibrium and the deterministic equilibrium.

Keywords

SPATIAL EPIDEMIC PROCESSSPATIALLY CONNECTED LOCATIONSOUTCOME OF EPIDEMICDETERMINISTIC EQUILIBRIUM AND THRESHOLDSTOCHASTIC QUASI-EQUILIBRIUMCOMPARISON OF DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC MODELS
Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 20 , Issue 4 , December 1983 , pp. 715 - 727
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1983 

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