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Compound Poisson limits for household epidemics

Part of: Limit theorems

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Peter Neal
Peter Neal*
Affiliation:
University of Manchester
*
∗Postal address: School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Sackville Street, Manchester M60 1QD, UK. Email address: [email protected]
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Abstract

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We consider epidemics in populations that are partitioned into small groups known as households. Whilst infectious, a typical infective makes global and local contact with individuals chosen independently and uniformly from the whole population or their own household, as appropriate. Previously, the classical Poisson approximation for the number of survivors of a severe epidemic has been extended to the household model. However, in the current work we exploit a Sellke-type construction of the epidemic process, which enables the derivation of sufficient conditions for the existence of a compound Poisson limit theorem for the survivors of the epidemic. The results are specialised to the Reed-Frost and general stochastic epidemic models.

Keywords

Epidemic modelhouseholdcompound Poisson convergence

MSC classification

Primary: 92D30: Epidemiology
Secondary: 60F05: Central limit and other weak theorems
Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 42 , Issue 2 , June 2005 , pp. 334 - 345
Copyright
© Applied Probability Trust 2005 

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