Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T08:05:26.318Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Trends in herbage yields over the last century on the Rothamsted Long-term Continuous Hay Experiment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 March 2009

D. S. Jenkinson ,
J. M. Potts ,
J. N. Perry ,
V. Barnett ,
K. Coleman  and
A. E. Johnston
D. S. Jenkinson
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
J. M. Potts
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
J. N. Perry
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
V. Barnett
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
K. Coleman
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
A. E. Johnston
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Yields from five of the plots on the Park Grass Continuous Hay experiment at Rothamsted, started in 1856, were examined to see if any long-term trends could be detected over the last 100 years. Three of the plots examined are unfertilized; two receive inorganic nutrients every year; all are harvested twice a year. In 1959 the harvesting procedure was changed: yields for the periods before and after this change were examined separately and together. On none of the three unfertilized plots was the slope of the regression of total yield (i.e. first and second cutscombined) on time significantly (P < 0·05) different from zero in either the 1891–1958 or 1960–1992 periods. On both the fertilized plots, there were significant declines in yield with time over the 1960–92 period, assuming that the effects of autocorrelation are sufficiently small to be ignored; there were no consistent changes between 1891 and 1958. There were some significant trends on the five plots when the two cuts were considered separately.

A linear regression model was fitted to the data in an attempt to separate the effects of meteorological variables (rainfall and sunshine hours over selected parts of the year) on total yield from possible long-term effects brought about, for example, by the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. On four of the five plots this model accounted for between 12 and 21% of the yield variance in the pre-1959 period and between 45 and 63% after 1960. On the fifth plot, which received the highest level of N, the model accounted for 29% of the variance in the first period but only for 16% in the second period. When a linear trend with time was included in the model, this was not significant on any of the plots over the entire 1891–1992 period, although some significant trends appeared when the two periods were considered separately. The model was also fitted with the atmospheric CO2 concentration in place of the linear trend with time: again there were no consistent trends.

Neither changes in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere over the last century nor increasing inputs of combined N in rainfall or in dry deposition have had any detectable effects on yield in these plots.

Type
Crops and Soils
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 122 , Issue 3 , June 1994 , pp. 365 - 374
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1994

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ashmore, M. R., Bell, J. N. B. & Mimmack, A. (1988). Crop growth along a gradient of ambient air pollution. Environmental Pollution 53, 99–121.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Boden, T. A., Kanciruk, P. & Farrell, M. P. (1990). Trends 90: a Compendium of Data on Global Change. Oak Ridge National Laboratory.Google Scholar
Cashen, R. O. (1947). The influence of rainfall on the yield and botanical composition of permanent grass at Rothamsted. Journal of Agricultural Science 37, 1–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chatfield, C. (1980). The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, 2nd edition. London: Chapman and Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coleman, S. Y., Shiel, R. S. & Evans, D. A. (1987). The effects of weather and nutrition on the yield of hay from Palace Leas meadow hay plots, at Cockle Park Experimental Farm, over the period from 1897 to 1980. Grass and Forage Science 42, 353–358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cure, J. D. & Acock, B. (1986). Crop responses to carbondioxide doubling – a literature survey. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 38, 127–145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gifford, R. M. (1992). Interaction of carbon dioxide with growth-limiting environmental factors in vegetation productivity: implications for the global carbon cycle. Advances in Bioclimatology 1, 24–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goudriaan, J. & de Ruiter, H. E. (1983). Plant-growth in response to CO2 enrichment, at two levels of nitrogen and phosphorus supply. 1. Dry matter, leaf area and development. Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science 31, 157–169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goulding, K. W. T. (1990). Nitrogen deposition to land from the atmosphere. Soil Use and Management 6, 61–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Idso, S. B. (1991). Modeling the seasonal contribution of a CO2 fertilization effect of the terrestrial vegetation to the amplitude increase in CO2 at the Mauna-Loa observatory–Comment. Tellus 43B, 338–341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, R. W. (1977). Assessing the impact of climate change on food production. Climate Change 1, 85–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kimball, B. A. (1983). Carbon dioxide and agricultural yield: an assemblage and analysis of 430 prior observations. Agronomy Journal 75, 779–788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kimball, B. A. & Idso, S. B. (1983). Increasing atmospheric CO2 – effects on crop yield, water-use and management. Agricultural Water Management 7, 55–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawes, J. B. & Gilbert, J. H. (1858). Report of experiments with different manures on permanent meadow land. Part I. Produce of hay per acre. Journal of the Royal Agricultural Society of England, 1st Series 19, 552–573.Google Scholar
Lawes, J. B. & Gilbert, J. H.(1880). Agricultural, botanical and chemical results of experiments on the mixed herbage of permanent meadow, conducted for more than 20 years in succession on the same land. Part I. The agricultural results. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 171, 289–415.Google Scholar
Lawlor, D. W. & Mitchell, R. A. C. (1991). The effects of increasing CO2 on crop photosynthesis and productivity – a review of field studies. Plant, Cell and Environment 14, 807–818.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meyer, S. J., Hubbard, K. G. & Wilhite, D. A. (1991). The relationship of climatic indices and variables to corn (maize) yields: a principal components analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 55, 59–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, N. H. J. (1905). The amounts of nitrogen as ammonia and as nitric acid, and of chlorine in the rainwater collected at Rothamsted. Journal of Agricultural Science 1, 280–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olsen, S. R., Cole, C. V., Watanabe, F. S. & Dean, L. A. (1954). Estimation of available phosphorus in soils by extraction with sodium bicarbonate. United States Department of Agriculture. Circular No. 939.Google Scholar
Payne, R. W. & Members of the Genstat 5 Committee (1987). Genstat Manual. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Rothamsted Experimental Station (1991). Rothamsted Experimental Station Guide to the Classical Experiments. Harpenden: Lawes Agricultural Trust.Google Scholar
Thornley, J. H. M. & Verberne, E. L. J. (1989). A model of nitrogen flows in grassland. Plant, Cell and Environment 12, 863–886.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thornley, J. H. M., Fowler, D. & Cannell, M. G. R. (1991). Terrestrial carbon storage resulting from CO2 and nitrogen fertilization in temperate grasslands. Plant, Cell and Environment 14, 1007–1011.Google Scholar
Thurston, J. M., Williams, E. D. & Johnston, A. E. (1976). Modern developments in an experiment on permanent grassland started in 1856: effects of fertilizers and lime on botanical composition and crop and soil analyses. Annales Agronomiques 27, 1043–1082.Google Scholar
Warren, R. G. & Johnston, A. E. (1964). The Park Grass Experiment. Rothamsted Experimental Station Report for 1963, 240–262.Google Scholar
Williams, E. D. (1978). Botanical Composition of the Park Grass Plots at Rothamsted.Harpenden: Rothamsted Experimental Station.Google Scholar