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Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 October 2012

J. EITZINGER ,
S. THALER ,
E. SCHMID ,
F. STRAUSS ,
R. FERRISE ,
M. MORIONDO ,
M. BINDI ,
T. PALOSUO ,
R. RÖTTER  and
K. C. KERSEBAUM
...Show all authors
J. EITZINGER*
Affiliation:
Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Street 82, A-1190 Vienna, Austria CzechGlobe – Center for Global Climate Change Impacts Studies, Bělidla 986, 4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
S. THALER
Affiliation:
Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Street 82, A-1190 Vienna, Austria
E. SCHMID
Affiliation:
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Feistmantelstr. 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
F. STRAUSS
Affiliation:
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Feistmantelstr. 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
R. FERRISE
Affiliation:
Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18 50144 Florence, Italy
M. MORIONDO
Affiliation:
CNR-IBIMET, Via G. Caproni 8 50145 Florence, Italy
M. BINDI
Affiliation:
Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18 50144 Florence, Italy
T. PALOSUO
Affiliation:
Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Lönnrotinkatu 5, FI-50100 Mikkeli, Finland
R. RÖTTER
Affiliation:
Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Lönnrotinkatu 5, FI-50100 Mikkeli, Finland
K. C. KERSEBAUM
Affiliation:
Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Center for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Muencheberg, Germany
J. E. OLESEN
Affiliation:
Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Foulum, Denmark
R. H. PATIL
Affiliation:
Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Foulum, Denmark
L. ŞAYLAN
Affiliation:
Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
B. ÇALDAĞ
Affiliation:
Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
O. ÇAYLAK
Affiliation:
Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: [email protected]
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Summary

The objective of the present study was to compare the performance of seven different, widely applied crop models in predicting heat and drought stress effects. The study was part of a recent suite of model inter-comparisons initiated at European level and constitutes a component that has been lacking in the analysis of sources of uncertainties in crop models used to study the impacts of climate change. There was a specific focus on the sensitivity of models for winter wheat and maize to extreme weather conditions (heat and drought) during the short but critical period of 2 weeks after the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing or minimum tillage. Since no comprehensive field experimental data sets were available, a relative comparison of simulated grain yields and soil moisture contents under defined weather scenarios with modified temperatures and precipitation was performed for a 2-week period after flowering. The results may help to reduce the uncertainty of simulated crop yields to extreme weather conditions through better understanding of the models’ behaviour. Although the crop models considered (DSSAT, EPIC, WOFOST, AQUACROP, FASSET, HERMES and CROPSYST) mostly showed similar trends in simulated grain yields for the different weather scenarios, it was obvious that heat and drought stress caused by changes in temperature and/or precipitation for a short period of 2 weeks resulted in different grain yields simulated by different models. The present study also revealed that the models responded differently to changes in soil tillage practices, which affected soil water storage capacity.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Papers
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 151 , Issue 6 , December 2013 , pp. 813 - 835
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012 

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