Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T04:13:19.228Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Regional difference of grain production potential change and its influencing factors: a case-study of Shaanxi Province, China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 March 2019

Li Fei ,
Li Ya  and
Ma Shuang
Li Fei*
Affiliation:
Collage of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi`an 710127, China Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China
Li Ya
Affiliation:
Collage of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi`an 710127, China
Ma Shuang
Affiliation:
Collage of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi`an 710127, China
*
Author for correspondence: Li Fei, E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Grain production potential (GrPP) is the maximum production in 1 year that can be achieved by land use under the limitations of climate conditions and in the absence of pests and diseases and other factors. Regional GrPP can change over time and there is an urgent need to identify the main factors affecting regional differences in such changes. Therefore, changes in GrPP were studied for six geographical units in Shaanxi Province, with summer maize and winter wheat as the main grain crops. Changes of GrPP during 2000–2015 were simulated by the global aro-ecological zone model. Analysis of modelled GrPP driven by observed changes in climate and land use suggest that over this period GrPP increased to the north but declined to the south of the Qinling Mountains. This is driven mainly by past changes in climate, with modelled GrPP more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature in all geographical units except one. Climate change was the main factor affecting GrPP in all geographical units except one; however, model prediction suggests that land use changes had a clear yield-reducing effect in three of the units. It is the conversion from cultivated land to construction land, grassland and woodland that led to the greatest declines in GrPP in these three geographical units. In order to ensure the stable development of regional agriculture and food security, Shaanxi Province should focus on tapping GrPP north of the Qinling Mountains and increasing the conversion rate of GrPP to actual production.

Keywords

Climate changeGlobal agro-ecological zonegrain production potentialland use changeregional difference
Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 157 , Issue 1 , January 2019 , pp. 1 - 11
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anandhi, A, Steiner, JL and Bailey, N (2016) A system's approach to assess the exposure of agricultural production to climate change and variability. Climatic Change 136, 647–659.Google Scholar
Anwar, MR, Liu, DL, Farquharson, R, Macadam, I, Abadi, A, Finlayson, J, Wang, B and Ramilan, T (2015) Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia. Agricultural Systems 132, 133–144.Google Scholar
Bai, H, Tao, F, Xiao, D, Liu, F and Zhang, H (2016) Attribution of yield change for rice-wheat rotation system in China to climate change, cultivars and agronomic management in the past three decades. Climatic Change 135, 539–553.Google Scholar
Bagley, JE, Desai, AR, Dirmeyer, PA and Foley, JA (2012) Effects of land cover change on moisture availability and potential crop yield in the world's breadbaskets. Environmental Research Letters 7, article no. 014009, 1–9. doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014009.Google Scholar
Basso, B, Ritchie, JT, Pierce, FJ, Braga, RP and Jones, JW (2001) Spatial validation of crop models for precision agriculture. Agricultural Systems 68, 97–112.Google Scholar
Batchelor, WD, Basso, B and Paz, JO (2002) Examples of strategies to analyze spatial and temporal yield variability using crop models. European Journal of Agronomy 18, 141–158.Google Scholar
Betts, RA, Golding, N, Gonzalez, P, Gornall, J, Kahana, R, Kay, G, Mitchell, L and Wiltshire, A (2013) Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems, fire, and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model using the Representative Concentration Pathways. Biogeosciences Discussions 10, 6171–6223.Google Scholar
Bindi, M, Palosuo, T, Trnka, M and Semenov, MA (2015) Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. Climate Research 65, 3–5.Google Scholar
Bobojonov, I and Aw-Hassan, A (2014) Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: an integrated modeling approach. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 188, 245–255.Google Scholar
Chakraborty, S and Newton, AC (2011) Climate change, plant diseases and food security: an overview. Plant Pathology 60, 2–14.Google Scholar
Chen, L, Wang, J, Wei, W, Fu, B and Wu, D (2010) Effects of landscape restoration on soil water storage and water use in the Loess Plateau Region, China. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 1291–1298.Google Scholar
Chourghal, N, Lhomme, JP, Huard, F and Aidaoui, A (2016) Climate change in Algeria and its impact on durum wheat. Regional Environmental Change 16, 1623–1634.Google Scholar
Chun, JA, Li, S, Wang, Q, Lee, WS, Lee, EJ, Horstmann, N, Park, H, Veasna, T, Vanndy, L, Pros, K and Vang, S (2016) Assessing rice productivity and adaptation strategies for Southeast Asia under climate change through multi-scale crop modeling. Agricultural Systems 143, 14–21.Google Scholar
Ciais, P, Reichstein, M, Viovy, N, Granier, A, Ogée, J, Allard, V, Aubinet, M, Buchmann, N, Bernhofer, C, Carrara, A, Chevallier, F, De Noblet, N, Friend, AD, Friedlingstein, P, Grünwald, T, Heinesch, B, Keronen, P, Knohl, A, Krinner, G, Loustau, D, Manca, G, Matteucci, G, Miglietta, F, Ourcival, JM, Papale, D, Pilegaard, K, Rambal, S, Seufert, G, Soussana, JF, Sanz, MJ, Schulze, ED, Vesala, T and Valentini, R (2005) Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437, 529–533.Google Scholar
Connolly-Boutin, L and Smit, B (2016) Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. Regional Environmental Change 16, 385–399.Google Scholar
Dawson, TP, Perryman, AH and Osborne, TM (2016) Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security. Climatic Change 134, 429–440.Google Scholar
Feng, X, Fu, B, Piao, S, Wang, S, Ciais, P, Zeng, Z, Lü, Y, Zeng, Y, Li, Y, Jiang, X and Wu, B (2016) Revegetation in China's Loess plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits. Nature Climate Change 6, 1019–1022.Google Scholar
Fischer, G and Sun, L (2001) Model based analysis of future land-use development in China. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85, 163–176.Google Scholar
Fischer, G, Velthuizen, HT, Shah, MM and Nachtergaele, FO (2002) Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century: Methodology and Results. IIASA Research Report RR-02-02. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA.Google Scholar
Fischer, G, Teixeira, E, Hizsnyik, E and van Velthuizen, HT (2008) Land use dynamics and sugarcane production. In Zuurbier, P and van de Vooren, J (eds), Sugarcane Ethanol: Contribution to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment. Wageningen, the Netherlands: Wageningen Academic Publishers, pp. 29–62.Google Scholar
Fu, B, Liu, Y, Lü, Y, He, C, Zeng, Y and Wu, B (2011) Assessing the soil erosion control service of ecosystems change in the Loess Plateau of China. Ecological Complexity 8, 284–293.Google Scholar
Gaál, M, Quiroga, S and Fernandez- Haddad, Z (2014) Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties. Regional Environmental Change 14, 597–610.Google Scholar
Harrison, MT, Cullen, BR and Rawnsley, RP (2016) Modelling the sensitivity of agricultural systems to climate change and extreme climatic events. Agricultural Systems 148, 135–148.Google Scholar
Hutchinson, MF (2001) Anusplin Version 4.2 User Guide. Canberra, Australia: The Australia National University.Google Scholar
IIASA/FAO (2010) GAEZ – Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ v3.0). Laxenburg, Austria and Rome, Italy: IIASA and FAO. Available at http://www.fao.org/nr/gaez/en (Accessed 6 February 2019).Google Scholar
IPCC (2014) AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, in press. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (Accessed 6 February 2019).Google Scholar
Jones, PG and Thornton, PK (2003) The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environmental Change 13, 51–59.Google Scholar
Kassie, BT, van Ittersum, MK, Hengsdijk, H, Asseng, S and Rötter, RP (2014) Climate-induced yield variability and yield gaps of maize (Zea mays L.) in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Field Crops Research 160, 41–53.Google Scholar
Kumar, SN, Aggarwal, PK, Rani, S, Jain, S, Saxena, R and Chauhan, N (2011) Impact of climate change on crop productivity in Western Ghats, coastal and northeastern regions of India. Current Science 101, 332–341.Google Scholar
Lake, IR, Hooper, L, Abdelhamid, A, Bentham, G, Boxall, AB, Draper, A, Fairweather-Tait, S, Hulme, M, Hunter, PR, Nichols, G and Waldron, KW (2012) Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries. Environmental Health Perspectives 120, 1520–1526.Google Scholar
Li, S, Lu, J, Yan, J, Liu, X, Kong, F and Wang, J (2018) Spatiotemporal variability of temperature in northern and southern Qinling Mountains and its influence on climatic boundary. Acta Geographica Sinica 73, 13–24.Google Scholar
Lieffering, M, Newton, PCD, Vibart, R and Li, FY (2016) Exploring climate change impacts and adaptations of extensive pastoral agriculture systems by combining biophysical simulation and farm system models. Agricultural Systems 144, 77–86.Google Scholar
Liu, J, Xu, X, Zhuang, D and Gao, Z (2005) Impacts of LUCC processes on potential land productivity in China in the 1990s. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences 48, 1259–1269.Google Scholar
Liu, Z, Yang, Z, Hubbard, KG and Lin, X (2012) Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China. Global Change Biology 18, 3441–3454.Google Scholar
Liu, L, Xu, X and Chen, X (2015) Assessing the impact of urban expansion on potential crop yield in China during 1990–2010. Food Security 7, 33–43.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB and Asner, GP (2003) Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. Agricultural yields. Science 299, 1032–1032.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB and Gourdji, SM (2012) The influence of climate change on global crop productivity. Plant Physiology 160, 1686–1697.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB, Schlenker, W and Costa-Roberts, J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333, 616–620.Google Scholar
Manandhar, S, Vogt, DS, Perret, SR and Kazama, F (2011) Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers’ perception and practices. Regional Environmental Change 11, 335–348.Google Scholar
Mereu, V, Carboni, G, Gallo, A, Cervigni, R and Spano, D (2015) Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria. Climatic Change 132, 321–336.Google Scholar
Mishra, A, Singh, R, Raghuwanshi, NS, Chatterjee, C and Froebrich, J (2013) Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga Basin. Science of the Total Environment 468–469(Suppl), S132–S138.Google Scholar
Peltonen-Sainio, P, Jauhiainen, L and Lehtonen, H (2016) Land use, yield and quality changes of minor field crops: is there superseded potential to be reinvented in Northern Europe? PLoS ONE 11, e0166403. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0166403.Google Scholar
Priya, S and Shibasaki, R (2001) National spatial crop yield simulation using GIS-based crop production model. Ecological Modelling 136, 113–129.Google Scholar
Qi, A, Zhou, Z and Liu, H (2013) The coupling relationship between urbanization and urban agriculture development in Xi'an city. Geographical Research 32, 2133–2142.Google Scholar
Qin, D (2014) Climate change science and sustainable development. Progress in Geography 33, 874–883.Google Scholar
Quaye, AK, Hall, CAS and Luzadis, VA (2010) Agricultural land use efficiency and food crop production in Ghana. Environment, Development & Sustainability 12, 967–983.Google Scholar
Reidsma, P, Bakker, MM, Kanellopoulos, A, Alam, SJ, Paas, W, Kros, J and de Vries, W (2015) Sustainable agricultural development in a rural area in the Netherlands? Assessing impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level. Agricultural Systems 141, 160–173.Google Scholar
Schmidhuber, J and Tubiello, FN (2007) Global food security under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, 19703–19708.Google Scholar
Seo, SN (2014) Evaluation of the Agro-Ecological Zone methods for the study of climate change with micro farming decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Agronomy 52, 157–165.Google Scholar
Shaanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics (2000–2015) Shaanxi Statistical Yearbooks. Beijing, China: China Statistics Press (in Chinese). Available at http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/Navi/HomePage.aspx?id=N2019010189&name=YUETU&floor=1 (Accessed 20 February 2019).Google Scholar
Shindell, D, Kuylenstierna, JC, Vignati, E, van Dingenen, R, Amann, M, Klimont, ZO, Anenberg, SC, Muller, N, Janssens-Maenhout, G, Raes, F, Schwartz, J, Faluvegi, GO, Pozzoli, LO, Kupiainen, K, Höglund-Isaksson, L, Emberson, L, Streets, DO, Ramanathan, V, Hicks, K, Oanh, NT, Milly, G, Williams, MO, Demkine, V and Fowler, D (2012) Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335, 183–189.Google Scholar
Stöckle, CO, Higgins, S, Nelson, R, Abatzoglou, J, Huggins, D, Pan, W, Karimi, T, Antle, J, Eigenbrode, SD and Brooks, E (2018) Evaluating opportunities for an increased role of winter crops as adaptation to climate change in dryland cropping systems of the U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 146, 247–261.Google Scholar
Sui, Y, Lang, X and Jiang, D (2015) Temperature and precipitation signals over China with a 2 °C global warming. Climate Research 64, 227–242.Google Scholar
Supit, I, van Diepen, CA, de Wit, AJW, Kabat, P, Baruth, B and Ludwig, F (2010) Recent changes in the climatic yield potential of various crops in Europe. Agricultural Systems 103, 683–694.Google Scholar
Tatsumi, K, Yamashiki, Y, da Silva, RV, Takara, K, Matsuoka, Y, Takahashi, K, Maruyama, K and Kawahara, N (2011) Estimation of potential changes in cereals production under climate change scenarios. Hydrological Processes 25, 2715–2725.Google Scholar
Thamo, T, Addai, D, Pannell, D, Robertson, MJ, Thomas, DT and Young, JM (2017) Climate change impacts and farm-level adaptation: economic analysis of a mixed cropping livestock system. Agricultural Systems 150, 99–108.Google Scholar
Tingem, M, Rivington, M, Bellocchi, G, Azam-Ali, S and Colls, J (2008) Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon. Climate Research 36, 65–77.Google Scholar
Tian, Z, Zhong, H, Sun, L, Fischer, G, van Velthuizen, H and Liang, Z (2014) Improving performance of Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) modeling by cross-scale model coupling: an application to japonica rice production in Northeast China. Ecological Modelling 290, 155–164.Google Scholar
Tirado, MC, Clarke, R, Jaykus, LA, McQuatters-Gollop, A and Frank, JM (2010) Climate change and food safety: a review. Food Research International 43, 1745–1765.Google Scholar
Thornton, PK, Jones, PG, Alagarswamy, G, Andresen, J and Herrero, M (2010) Adapting to climate change: agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa. Agricultural Systems 103, 73–82.Google Scholar
Touch, V, Martin, RJ, Scott, JF, Cowie, A and Liu, L (2016) Climate change adaptation options in rainfed upland cropping systems in the wet tropics: a case study of smallholder farms in North-West Cambodia. Journal of Environmental Management 182, 238–246.Google Scholar
van Ittersum, MKV, Leffelaar, PA, van Keulen, H, Kropff, MJ, Bastiaans, L and Goudriaan, J (2003) On approaches and applications of the Wageningen crop models. European Journal of Agronomy 18, 201–234.Google Scholar
Van Wart, J, van Bussel, LGJ, Wolf, J, Licker, R, Grassini, P, Nelson, AO, Boogaard, H, Gerber, J, Mueller, ND, Claessens, LO, van Ittersum, MKO and Cassman, KG (2013) Use of agro-climatic zones to upscale simulated crop yield potential. Field Crops Research 143, 44–55.Google Scholar
Wang, J, Wang, E, Yang, X, Zhang, F and Yin, H (2012) Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation. Climatic Change 113, 825–840.Google Scholar
Wheeler, T and von Braun, J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341, 508–513.Google Scholar
Xie, X, Zhou, J, Zhang, H, Ge, J, Lang, H and Zhang, H (2006) LUCC analysis of Xi'an Region based on landscape ecology and Markov Model. Resources Science 28, 175–181.Google Scholar
Xu, X, Wang, L, Cai, H, Wang, L, Liu, L and Wang, H (2017) The influences of spatiotemporal change of cultivated land on food crop production potential in China. Food Security 9, 485–495.Google Scholar
Yang, C, Shen, W and Li, H (2015) Response of grain yield in Tibet to climate and cultivated land change during 1985–2010. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering 31, 261–269.Google Scholar
Yuan, B, Guo, JP, Ye, MZ and Zhao, JF (2012) Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under climate change. Chinese Science Bulletin 57, 3497–3508.Google Scholar
Yun, JI (2003) Predicting regional rice production in South Korea using spatial data and crop-growth modeling. Agricultural Systems 77, 23–38.Google Scholar
Zhang, JK, Zhang, FR, Zhang, D, He, DX, Zhang, L, Wu, C and Kong, X (2009) The grain potential of cultivated lands in Mainland China in 2004. Land Use Policy 26, 68–76.Google Scholar
Zhong, X, Liu, L, Xu, X and You, S (2012) Characteristics of spatial-temporal variation of maize climate productivity during last 30 years in China. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering 28, 94–101.Google Scholar
Zhang, HL, Zhao, X, Yin, XG, Liu, SL, Xue, JF, Wang, M, Pu, C, Lal, R and Chen, F (2015) Challenges and adaptations of farming to climate change in the North China Plain. Climatic Change 129, 213–224.Google Scholar
Zhang, X, Li, X, Xu, X and Zhang, L (2017) Ensemble projection of climate change scenarios of China in the 21st century based on the preferred climate models. Acta Geographica Sinica 72, 1555–1568.Google Scholar