Forecasting growth and yield of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) with a dynamic simulation model ‘PNUTGRO’ under Punjab conditions

Abstract

The dynamic simulation model ‘PNUTGRO’ was used to predict groundnut growth and yield from 1989 to 1993 at Ludhiana, India. The simulated flowering, pegging and physiological maturity dates, leaf area index (LAI), pod and seed yields and shelling percentage of groundnut were compared with actual observations for the commonly grown cultivar, M-335. The simulated phenologic events showed deviations of only −3 to +3 days for flowering, −3 to +2 days for pegging and −4 to +2 days for physiological maturity of the crop. The model estimated the LAI to be within 95–108% (mean 101·5%) and shelling percentage to be within 93–108% (mean 100·5%) of the actual values. The model predicted the pod yields from 89 to 111% (mean 100%) and seed yield from 90 to 110% (mean 100%) of the observed yields. The results obtained with the model for the five consecutive crop seasons revealed satisfactory predictions of phenology, growth and yield of groundnut and hence the model ‘PNUTGRO’ can be used for prediction of groundnut production in the central plains of the Indian Punjab.