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Ensemble-based analysis of regional climate change effects on the cabbage stem weevil (Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus (Mrsh.)) in winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 June 2011

J. JUNK ,
M. EICKERMANN ,
K. GÖRGEN ,
M. BEYER  and
L. HOFFMANN
J. JUNK*
Affiliation:
Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann, Département Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg
M. EICKERMANN
Affiliation:
Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann, Département Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg
K. GÖRGEN
Affiliation:
Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann, Département Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg
M. BEYER
Affiliation:
Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann, Département Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg
L. HOFFMANN
Affiliation:
Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann, Département Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: [email protected]
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Summary

The impact of projected regional climate change on the migration of cabbage stem weevil (Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus) to oilseed rape crops in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg is evaluated for past and future time spans. Several threshold-based statistical models for the emergence and the main migration of C. pallidactylus were chosen from the literature and combined with selected regional climate change projections of the EU ENSEMBLES project. Additionally, a simple degree-day based model was used to assess the plant development under expected climate change conditions. An earlier onset as well as a prolongation of the possible emergence times and the main migration periods was detected. The onset of stem elongation of oilseed rape was predicted to occur 3·0 days earlier per decade, while emergence of C. pallidactylus was expected to occur between 3·0 and 3·3 days earlier per decade. The main migration period of the weevil to the field may start 2·0 days earlier per decade under future climate conditions. Additionally, the time span of possible migration is prolonged for about 30 days under projected future climate conditions.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 150 , Issue 2 , April 2012 , pp. 191 - 202
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

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