It is difficult to describe the extent of my pleasure both in being here today and in having the honor of serving as your president this year. This occasion is particularly meaningful to me since I follow in the footsteps of two of my professors in this forum, Sandra S. Batie and Oral Capps, Jr., who have had a great deal of influence on my professional development.

The 1984 meetings of the Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA) in Nashville, Tennessee, marked my first exposure to the meetings of this Association. One of my more vivid memories of that occasion was a dinner at the Opryland Hotel where Joseph Havlicek, Jr., enlightened us with his comments on the state of this Association and its future prospects, along with an in-depth reminiscence of the Association's history.

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998–2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986–96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.

This paper investigates the farm-level impacts of the 1996 farm bill on the South. Focus group perceptions of risk sources, observed acreage changes, and the farm-level impact of increased price risk are evaluated. Focus group respondents ranked price and yield as the two most important sources of risk, and diversification was ranked highly as a risk-management tool. Limited data suggest that acreage shifts among crops are occurring in the South, presumably aided by the 1996 farm bill. Higher probabilities of cash flow deficits are estimated for cotton and rice relative to feedgrain, wheat, and oilseed operations.

The 1996 Farm Act and the 1994 Crop Insurance Reform Act are recent examples of policy changes that have increased risks for U.S. farmers. New products are emerging to help farmers manage risks. This article examines some of the policy changes, farmer responses, and new risk-sharing products. The focus turns to the new revenue insurance products and their potential in the South. While there are reasons to believe revenue insurance should be attractive in the South, any revenue products that use existing crop insurance rates will face difficulties since poor actuarial performance in the South has resulted in relatively high rates.

Ray et al. have examined the national agricultural sector impacts of the 1996 FAIR Act using a stochastic simulation model based on the Policy Analysis System (POLYSYS). The model outcomes are predictions of various economic measures, including the coefficient of variation of net returns for corn, wheat, soy-beans, and cotton. Then Knutson et al. use the results of the Ray et al. simulations to predict the distribution of net farm income over the next 10 years for several types of representative southern farms. Any attempt to measure the changes in riskiness in southern agriculture is commendable—even heroic—and I applaud these efforts, both the national modeling effort by Ray et al. and the application to southern representative farms by Knutson et al. This task has a lot in common, I think, with trying to “tease out” the temperature changes associated with the greenhouse effect. The number of factors and mechanisms at work is mind-boggling. It's tough enough to try to get a handle on what might happen to the first moment of net farm income over the next 10 years, let alone the second.

Microbial pathogens and pesticide residues in food pose a financial burden to society which can be reduced by incurring costs to reduce these food safety risks. We explore three valuation techniques that place a monetary value on food safety risk reductions, and we present a case study for each: a contingent valuation survey on pesticide residues, an experimental auction market for a chicken sandwich with reduced risk of Salmonella, and a cost-of-illness analysis for seven foodborne pathogens. Estimates from these techniques can be used in cost/benefit analyses for policies that reduce food safety risks.

Recently enacted food safety regulations require processors to meet product standards for microbial contamination in meat products. An analysis of the cost-effectiveness of several technological interventions for microbial control in beef and pork processing shows that marginal improvements in food safety can be obtained, but at increasing costs. The additional food safety intervention costs represent about 1% of total processing costs for beef and pork. Some interventions and combinations are more cost-effective than others.

This paper traces the economic impact of the costs of foodborne illness on the U.S. economy using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework. Previous estimates of the costs of seven foodborne pathogens are disaggregated by type, and distributed across the population using data from the National Health Interview Survey. Initial income losses resulting from premature death cause a decrease in economic activity. Medical costs, in contrast, result in economic growth, though this growth does not outweigh the total costs of premature death. A SAM accounting of how the costs of illness are diffused through the economy provides useful information for policy makers.

China's agricultural trade expanded rapidly following economic reforms and the open-door policy adopted in the late 1970s. The composition of agricultural trade with China follows its labor-abundant and land-scarce resource endowment with imports of bulk and processed intermediates and exports of consumer-ready and processed goods. Constraints on U.S.China agricultural trade include tariffs, state trading, food security policies, and other nontariff barriers. Growth potential is based on China's fundamental demand forces including the world's largest population, a high real-income growth rate, an emerging urban middle class, and further trade reforms to be implemented through accession to the World Trade Organization.

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China's import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China's demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China's import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.

A two-stage budgeting LES-LA/AIDS system is used to estimate rural household demand in China with special emphasis on changes in demand for fruit and vegetable commodities across different income groups. The own-price elasticity for food was found to be more elastic than that for clothing, housing, durable goods, and other items. Within the food group, price elasticities range from –1.042 to –0.019. Grain, with an expenditure elasticity of almost unity, is an important staple food for the average rural household. Vegetables are important nonstaple foods relative to fruits. Lower value vegetables are the most price elastic in the vegetable group. Fruits are more price elastic than vegetables, with grapes being the most price elastic. Different income groups share a common demand function.

A computer system for implementing electronic markets on networks of personal computers is described. The program allows a researcher or teacher to design market simulations to meet a variety of goals, and records a complete set of market activities for analysis. Illustrations of example markets are provided, and the classroom application of market simulations in teaching agricultural economics is discussed.

Winter legumes can substitute for applied nitrogen fertilization of corn. Stochastic dominance was used to order net revenues from legume and applied nitrogen alternatives. Stochastic dominance orderings indicate that systems combining vetch with low applied nitrogen fertilization (50 and 100 pounds/acre, respectively) were risk inefficient. By contrast, vetch and 150 pounds/acre applied nitrogen maximized expected net revenue and was risk efficient for a wide range of risk-averse and risk-seeking behavior. Farmers with these risk attitudes may not reduce applied nitrogen if they switch to a vetch cover. Extremely risk-averse or risk-seeking farmers would not prefer winter legumes.

The introduction of vertical coordination in the hog industry has provided producers with new business arrangements for raising hogs. While some researchers have elicited utility functions for hog producers on the basis of income risk, none have addressed autonomy, a factor which appears to be important in business arrangement selection for independent family hog operations. In this study, a method is developed for eliciting a multi-attribute function with attributes of income and autonomy. Utility functions are elicited for a group of Minnesota farrow-to-finish hog producers. For these producers, autonomy dominated risk as the most important attribute in business arrangement selection.