Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 April 2015
A significant component of risk in agricultural production systems is yield variability. The ability to predict yield and thus reduce risk would have many potential benefits to both individual decision makers and society. For example, in farm planning, quality crop yield forecasts could be crucial in making decisions on optimal crop combinations. At the aggregate level, an example where a yield forecast would have obvious benefits would be cases in which government manages a grain buffer stock.