Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jkksz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T08:08:56.448Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Population Growth and Land Use Dynamics along Urban–Rural Gradient

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2015

Maksym Polyakov
Affiliation:
Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University
Daowei Zhang
Affiliation:
School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL

Abstract

In this study we apply a spatial conditional logit model to determine factors influencing land cover change in three contiguous counties in West Georgia between 1992 and 2001 using point (pixel) based observations of land characteristics. We found that accessibility to population and population growth affect not only development of rural lands and transition between agricultural and forestry uses, but also influence changes between forest types. The model could be used to project land use–land cover change at watershed or subwatershed level and thus serve as a valuable tool for county and city planners.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2008

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ahn, S., Plantinga, A., and Alig, R.. “Predicting Future Forestland Area: A Comparison of Econometrie Approaches.Forest Science 46,3(2000):363376.Google Scholar
Alig, R.J., and Healy, R.G.. “Urban and Built-up Land Area Changes in the United States: An Empirical Investigation of Determinants.Land Economics 63,3(1987):215226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alonso, W. Location and Land Use. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1964.Google Scholar
Bockstael, N.E.Modeling Economics and Ecology: The Importance of a Spatial Perspective.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78,5(1996):11681180.Google Scholar
Bogue, D.J.The Spread of Cities.American Economic Review 46,2(1956):284292.Google Scholar
Carrión-Flores, C., and Irwin, E.G.. “Determinants of Residential Land Use Conversion and Sprawl at the Rural-Urban Fringe.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86,4(2004):889904.Google Scholar
Chomitz, K.M., and Gray, D.A.. “Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize.World Bank Economic Review 10,3(1996):487512.Google Scholar
ESRI Data & Maps [CD-ROM]. Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute, 1999.Google Scholar
ESRI Data & Maps [CD-ROM]. Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute, 2005.Google Scholar
Greene, W. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2000.Google Scholar
GSDI. Georgia Spatial Data Clearinghouse. 2006. Internet site: https://gisl.state.ga.us/ (Accessed October 14, 2006).Google Scholar
Hardie, I.W., and Parks, P.J.. “Land Use with Heterogeneous Land Quality: An Application of an Area-Base Model.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79,2(1997):299310.Google Scholar
Hauser, J.R.Testing the Accuracy, Usefulness, and Significance of Probabilistic Choice Models: An Information-Theoretic Approach.Operations Research 26,3(1978):406421.Google Scholar
Hoover, E.M. An Introduction to Regional Economics. New York: Knopf, 1971.Google Scholar
Irwin, E.G., and Bockstael, N.E.. “Interacting Agents, Spatial Externalities, and the Endogenous Evolution of Residential Land Use Patterns.Journal of Economic Geography 2,l(2002):3154.Google Scholar
Kline, J.D., Azuma, D.L., and Moses, A.. “Modeling the Spatially Dynamic Distribution of Humans in the Oregon (USA) Coast Range.Landscape Ecology 18,4(2003):347361.Google Scholar
Kline, J.D., Moses, A., and Alig, R.J.. “Integrating Urbanization into Landscape-Level Ecological Assessments.Ecosystems 4,1(2001):318.Google Scholar
Ledyard, J., and Moses, L.N.. “Dynamics and Land Use: The Case of Forestry.” Public and Urban Economics, Essays in Honor of William S. Vickrey. Grieson, R.E., ed., pp. 141–57. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1976.Google Scholar
Lewis, D.J., and Plantinga, A.J.. “Policies for Habitat Fragmentation: Combining Econometrics with GIS-Based Landscape Simulations.Land Economics 83,2(2007):109127.Google Scholar
Lockaby, B.G., Zhang, D., McDaniel, J., Tian, H., and Pan, S.. “Interdisciplinary Research at the Urban-Rural Interface: The WestGa project.Urban Ecosystems 8,1(2005):721.Google Scholar
Lubowski, R.N., Plantinga, A.J., and Stavins, R.N.. “Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 51,2(2006):135152.Google Scholar
Majumdar, I., Polyakov, M., and Teeter, L.. “Land Use Change Determinants in Alabama.” Emerging Issues along Urban/Rural Interfaces: Linking Science and Society. Conference Proceedings (2005):6770.Google Scholar
McFadden, D.Conditional Logit Analysis of Quantitative Choice Models.” Frontiers of Econometrics, Zarembka, P. ed. New York: Academic Press, 1973.Google Scholar
Miller, D.J., and Plantinga, A.J.. “Modeling Land Use Decisions with Aggregate Data.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81(1999):180194.Google Scholar
Mohammadian, A., and Kanaroglou, P.. “Applications of Spatial Multinomial Logit Model to Transportation Planning.” Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research. Switzerland, Aug. 2003.Google Scholar
Munn, I.A., Barlow, S.A., Evans, D.L., and Cleaves, D.. “Urbanization's Impact on Timber Harvesting in the South Central United States.Journal of Environmental Management 64,1(2002):6576.Google Scholar
Nagubadi, R.V., and Zhang, D.. “Timberland Use by Ownership and Forest Type in Alabama and Georgia.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 37,1(2005):173186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelson, G., Pinto, A. De, Harris, V., and Stone, S.. 2005. “Land Use and Road Improvements: A Spatial Perspective.International Regional Science Review 27,3(2005):297325.Google Scholar
Parks, P.J., Barbier, E.B., and Burgess, J.C.. “The Economics of Tropical Forest Land Use in Temperate and Tropical Areas.Environmental and Resource Economics 11,3–4(1998):473487.Google Scholar
Parks, P.J., and Murray, B.C.. “Land Attributes and Land Allocation: Nonindustrial Forest Use in the Pacific Northwest.Forest Science 40,3(1994):558575.Google Scholar
Polyakov, M., Majumdar, I., and Teeter, L.. “Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Anthropogenic Effects on Local Diversity of Forest Trees.Forest Ecology and Management 255,5-6(2008):13791387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Polyakov, M., and Zhang, D.. “Property Tax Policy and Land-Use Change.Land Economics 8,3(2008):396408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ricardo, D., orig. 1817. Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Rpt. Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, 1963.Google Scholar
SAS Institute, Inc. SASIETS User's Guide, Version 9.1. Cary, NC, 2004.Google Scholar
Shi, Y.J., Phipps, T.T., and Coyler, D.. “Agricultural Land Values under Urbanizing Influences.Land Economics 73(1997):90100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Song, S.Some Tests of Alternative Accessibility Measures: A Population Density Approach.Land Economics 72,4(1996):474482.Google Scholar
Stavins, R.N., and Jaffe, A.B.. “Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands.American Economic Review 80(1990):337352.Google Scholar
Train, K.E. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003.Google Scholar
Turner, M.G., Wear, D.N., and Flamm, R.O.. “Land Ownership and Land-Cover Change in the Southern Appalachian Highlands and the Olympic Peninsula.Ecological Applications 6(1996):11501172.Google Scholar
U.S. Census Bureau. “TIGER/Line.” Internet site: http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tiger/ (Accessed October 20, 2006).Google Scholar
von Thünen, J.H. Isolated State; an English edition of Der isolierte Staat. Oxford, New York: Pergamon Press, 1966.Google Scholar
Wear, D.N., and Bolstad, P.. “Land Use Changes in Southern Appalachian Landscapes: Spatial Analysis and Forecast Evaluation.” Ecosystems 1,6(1998):575594.Google Scholar
Wear, D.N., Liu, R., Foreman, J.M., and Michael, R.M.. “The Effects of Population Growth on Timber Management and Inventories in Virginia.Forest Ecology and Management 118(1999):107115.Google Scholar
Zhang, D., and Nagubadi, R.V.. “Timberland Use in the Southern United States.Forest Policy and Economics 7,3(2005):721731.CrossRefGoogle Scholar