Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T19:14:54.068Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting Irrigation Water Demand: A Case Study on the Flint River Basin in Georgia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Swagata “Ban” Banerjee ,
Irfan Y. Tareen ,
Lewell F. Gunter ,
Jimmy Bramblett  and
Michael E. Wetzstein
Swagata “Ban” Banerjee
Affiliation:
Delta Research and Extension Center, Mississippi State University
Irfan Y. Tareen
Affiliation:
Visa, San Francisco, CA
Lewell F. Gunter
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA
Jimmy Bramblett
Affiliation:
Natural Resources Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Athens, GA
Michael E. Wetzstein
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Southeast drought conditions have accentuated the demand for irrigation in the face of restricted water supply. For allocating this supply, Georgia held an auction for withdrawing irrigated acreage. This auction withdrew 33,000 acres from irrigation, resulting in a physical estimate of a 399 acre-feet daily increase in water flow. The actual reduction is driven by crop distributional changes on the basis of economic substitution and expansion effects. In contrast to the physical estimates, an econometric model that considers these effects is developed. The differences between the physical and econometric models result in an increase in the estimate of water savings of around 19% to 24%.

Keywords

acreage responsecrop distributionirrigated acreageirrigationslippagewater demandwater savingQ12Q25
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 39 , Issue 3 , December 2007 , pp. 641 - 655
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barten, A.P., and Vanloot, C.. “Price Dynamics in Agriculture: An Exercise in Historical Econometrics.” Econometric Modelling 13(1996):315-31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bettendorf, L., and Blomme, J.. “An Empirical Study of the Distribution of Crops in Agricultural Land in Belgium: 1900-1939.” Hisorical Social Research 19(1994):53–63.Google Scholar
Bewley, R., Young, T., and Colman, D.. “A Systems Approach to Modelling Supply Equations in Agriculture.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 38(1987):151-66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Binkley, J.K., and McKinzie, L.. “Improving Acreage Response Analysis with Multiple Equations.” North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics 6(1984):91–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bohrnstedt, G.W., and Goldberger, A.S.. “On the Exact Covariance of Products of Random Variables.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 64(1969):143-92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burt, C.M., Mutziger, A.J., Allen, R.G., and Howell, T.A.. “Evaporation Research: Review and Interpretation.” Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 131(2005):37–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chavas, J.P., and Holt, M.T.. “Acreage Decision Under Risk: The Case of Corn and Soybeans.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(1990):529-38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chavas, J.P., Pope, R.D., and Kao, R.S.. “An Analysis of the Role of Futures Prices, Cash Prices, and Government Programs in Acreage Response.” Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 8(July 1983):27–33.Google Scholar
Chembezi, D.M., and Womack, A.W.. “Regional Acreage Response for U.S. Corn and Wheat: The Effects of Government Programs.” Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 24(1992):187-98.Google Scholar
Choi, J.S., and Helmberger, P.G.. “Acreage Response, Expected Price Functions, and Endogenous Price Expectations.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 18(July 1993):37–46.Google Scholar
Colman, D. “Prairie Grain and Oilseed Acreage Response.” Working paper no. 7. Ottawa, Canada: Policy, Planning and Economics Branch, Agriculture Canada, 1979.Google Scholar
Coyle, B.T. “On Modeling Systems of Crop Acreage Demands.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 18(1993):57–69.Google Scholar
Dodd, B.Permit Transfers Hold Water for Georgia. Atlanta: Georgia Public Policy Foundation, January 2004.Google Scholar
Duffy, P.A., Richardson, J.W., and Wohlgenant, M.K.. “Regional Cotton Acreage Response.” Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 19(1987):99–108.Google Scholar
Duffy, P.A., Shalshali, K., and Kinnucan, H.W.. “Acreage Response Under Farm Programs for Major Southeastern Field Crops.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 26(1994):367-78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eales, J.S., Engel, B.K., Hauser, R.J., and Thompson, S.R.. “Grain Price Expectations of Illinois Farmers and Grain Merchandisers.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(1990):701-08.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flint River Drought Protection Act. House Resolution 17, Georgia General Assembly, 2001.Google Scholar
Gardner, B.L. “Futures Prices in Supply Analysis.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 58(1976):81–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Georgia Environmental Protection Division. Atlanta, GA: Geological Survey Branch, August 2001.Google Scholar
Holt, M.T. “A Linear Approximate Acreage Allocation Model.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 24(1999):383-97.Google Scholar
Houck, J.P., and Ryan, M.E.. “Supply Analysis of Corn in the United States: The Impact of Changing Government Programs.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 54(1972):184-91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Just, R.E. “The Investigation of the Importance of Risk in Farmers’ Decision.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 56(1974):14–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kraker, E., and Paddock, B.. “A Systems Approach to Estimating Prairie Crop Acreage.” Ottawa, Canada: Agriculture Canada Marketing and Economics Branch Working paper 15, 1985.Google Scholar
Krause, M.A., Lee, J.H., and Koo, W.W.. “Program and Nonprogram Wheat Acreage Responses to Price and Price Risk.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 20(1995):96–107.Google Scholar
Lin, W. “Measuring Aggregate Supply Response Under Instability.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 59(1977):903-07.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Massow, M., and Weersink, A.. “Acreage Response to Government Stabilization Programs in Ontario.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 41(1993):13–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McIntosh, C.S., and Shideed, K.H.. “The Effects of Government Programs on Acreage Response Over Time: The Case of Corn Production in Iowa.” Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 41(1989):38–14.Google Scholar
Morzuch, B.J., Weaver, R.D., and Helmberger, P.G.. “Wheat Acreage Supply Response under Changing Farm Program.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(1980):29–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutziger, A.J., Burt, C.M., Howes, D.J., and Allen, R.G.. “Comparison of Measured and FAO-56 Modeled Evaporation from Bare Soil.” Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 131(2005):59–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nerlove, M.The Dynamics of Supply: Estimation of Farmer’s Response to Price. Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins Press, 1958.Google Scholar
Nieuwoud, W.L., Womack, A.W., and Johnson, S.R.. “Measurement of Importance of Risk on Supply Response of Corn and Soybeans.” North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics 10(1988):281-92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pope, R.D., and Just, R.E.. “On Testing the Structure of Risk Preferences in Agricultural Supply Analysis.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73(1991):743-48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prophet Financial Systems, Inc. “Historical Futures Data 1959-Present.” CD-ROM, 1999.Google Scholar
Shideed, K.H., White, F.C., and Brannen, S.J.. “The Responsiveness of U.S. Corn and Soybean Acreage to Conditional Price Expectations: An Application to the 1985 Farm Bill.” Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 19(1987):153-67.Google Scholar
Shumway, C.R. “Supply, Demand, and Technology in a Multiproduct Industry: Texas Field Crops.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 65(1983):748-60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Traill, B. “Risk Variables in Econometric Supply Models.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 29(1978):53–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture-National Agricultural Statistics Service. NASS—Data and Statistics. Internet site: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Data_and_Statistics/index.asp (Accessed August 8, 2007).Google Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service. “ACT/ACF River Basins Comprehensive Study: Agricultural Water Demand.” Auburn, AL: USDA-NRCS, 1995.Google Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture-Soil Conservation Service. “Irrigation Water Requirements.” City: Soil Conservation Service Engineering Division Technical Release 21, April 1967.Google Scholar
University of Georgia-Cooperative Extension Service. “Georgia Irrigation Survey.” Tifton, Georgia: Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1999.Google Scholar