Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 September 2016
In assessing the prospective utility or value of a research program there are three important considerations: (1) potential impact the research will have on the scientific field involved, (2) probable benefits to industry or the public sector and (3) probability of success of projects in achieving these goals. Various studies have been made that emphasize the first and second objectives, i.e., trying to determine both scientific merit and economic value or return on investment in research projects and programs. This paper will be concerned with the latter objective; estimating the probable success of projects which were part of an organized agricultural research program conducted by USDA over a 25 year period.