Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-lj6df Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-08T03:30:21.524Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Dynamic Interrelationships between the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance and the Macroeconomy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Jungho Baek
Affiliation:
Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND
Won W. Koo
Affiliation:
Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND

Abstract

The effects of the exchange rate and the income and money supply of the United States and its major trading partners on the U.S. agricultural trade balance are examined using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results suggest that the exchange rate is the key determinant of the short- and long-run behavior of the trade balance. It is also found that the income and money supply in both the United States and the trading partners have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural trade in both the short and long run.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alexander, S.S.Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance?International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 2(1952):263-78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.Devaluation and the J-curve: Some Evidence from LDCs.” Review of Economics and Statistics 67(August 1985):500-04.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and Ratha, A.. “Dynamics of the U.S. Trade with Developing Countries.” Journal of Developing Areas 37(Spring 2004):111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Batten, D.S., and Belongia, M.T.. “Monetary Policy, Real Exchange Rates, and U.S. Agricultural Exports?American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68(May 1986):422-27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bessler, D.A., and Babula, R.A.. “Forecasting Wheat Exports: Do Exchange Rates Matter?Journal of Business, Economics and Statistics 5(1987):397406.Google Scholar
Bradshaw, R.( and Orden, D.. “Granger Causality from the Exchange Rate to Agricultural Prices and Export Sales.Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 15(July 1990):100-10.Google Scholar
Chambers, R.G.Interrelationships between Monetary Instruments and Agricultural Commodity Trade.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 63(December 1981):934-41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chambers, R.G.Agricultural and Financial Market Interdependence in the Short-Run.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66(February 1984):1224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chambers, R.G., and Just, R.E.. “Effects of Exchange Rate Changes of U.S. Agriculture: A Dynamic Analysis.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 63(February 1981):3346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A.. “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(1979):427-31.Google Scholar
Dornbusch, R.Exchange Rates and Fiscal Policy in a Popular Model of International Trade.American Economic Review 65(1975):859-71.Google Scholar
Doroodian, K., Jung, C., and Boyd, R.. “The J-curve Effect and U.S. Agricultural and Industrial Trade.Applied Economics 31(1999):687-95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J., and Stock, J.H.. “Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root.Econometrica 64(1996):813-36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engle, R., and Granger, C.W.J.. “Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing.Econometrica 55(1987):251-76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frenkel, J.A., and Johnson, H.G.. “The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments.” The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments, Frenkel, J.A. and Johnson, H.G. eds. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1977.Google Scholar
Gardner, B.On the Power of Macroeconomic Linkages to Explain Events in U.S. Agriculture.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 63(December 1981):872-78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics. Washington, DC, various years.Google Scholar
Johansen, S.Likelihood-Based Inference in Coin-tegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, H.G.The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Theory.Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 7(March 1972):1551-71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., and Shin, Y.. “Testing the Null of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root.Journal of Econometrics 54(1992):159-78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mattson, J.W., and Koo, W.. “Characteristics of the Declining U.S. Agricultural Trade Surplus.” Agribusiness and Applied Economics Report No. 572. Fargo, ND: Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, 2005.Google Scholar
Miles, M.A.The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results.Journal of Political Economy 87(1979):600-20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mundell, R.A.International Economics. New York: Macmillan, 1968.Google Scholar
Orden, D.Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Trade.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 34(August 2002):303-12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesaran, M.H., and Shin, Y.. “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis.” Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Strom, S. ed. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1999.Google Scholar
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J.. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(2001):289326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, A.K., and Yellen, J.L.. “Is There a J-Curve?Journal of Monetary Economics 24(1989):5368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (USDA/ERS). Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set. Internet site: www.ers.usda.gov/Data/ExchangeRates/ (Accessed January 10, 2006).Google Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture, U.S. Trade Internet System, Internet site: www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade/ (Accessed January 12, 2006).Google Scholar
Whitman, M.V.Global Monetarism and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 3(1975):491555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar