Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T05:32:31.237Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Challenges and Opportunities Provided by Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Harvey S.J. Hill
Affiliation:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs, Regional Assessments Program, Silver Springs, MD
James W. Mjelde
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Abstract

Use of seasonal climate forecasts is a rapidly evolving area. Effective research and application of climate forecasts require close cooperation between scientists in diverse disciplines and decision makers. Successful collaboration requires all players to at least partially understand each other's perspectives. Issues associated with seasonal forecasts, through a selected review of both physical and social sciences literature, is presented. Our hope is that the review will improve research in this area by stimulating further collaborations.

Type
Invited by the Editor
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, R.M., Houston, L.L., McCarl, B.A., Tiscareno, M., Matus, J., and Weiher, R.. “The Benefits and Costs of an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Early Warning System in Mexican Agriculture.” Draft Report to U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the InterAmerican Development Bank, August 2001.Google Scholar
Adams, R.M., Bryant, K.J., McCarl, B.A., Legler, D.M., O'Brien, J., Solow, A., and Weiher, R.. “Value of Improved Long-Range Weather Information.” Contemporary Economic Policy 13(July 1995):1019.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agrawala, S., and Broad, K.. “Technology Transfer Perspectives on Climate Forecast Applications.” Knowledge and Society 13(2001):4569.Google Scholar
Agrawala, S., Broad, K., and Guston, D.H.. “Integrating Climate Forecasts and Societal Decision Making: Challenges to an Emergent Boundary Organization.” Science, Technology, and Human Values 26(Autumn 2001):454-77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Babcock, B.The Value of Weather Information in Market Equilibrium.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(November 1990):6372.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baethgen, W.Applying Climate Forecasts in the Agricultural Sector: The Experience of South East South America.” Paper presented at the International Research Institute for Improved Climate Forecasts International Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture, and Development, Palisades, NY, April 26-29, 2000.Google Scholar
Baquet, A.E., Halter, A.N., and Conklin, F.S.. “The Value of Frost Forecasting: A Bayesian Appraisal.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 58(August 1976):511-20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barlow, M., Nigam, S., and Berbery, E.H.. “ENSO, Decadal Variability, and U.S. Summertime Precipitation, Drought, and Steam Flow.” Journal of Climate 14(May 2001):2105-28.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bates, C.B., Charles, S.P., and Hughes, J.P.. “Developing Seasonal Climate Forecasts by Stochastic Downscaling of GCM Simulations.” Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems The Australian Experience. Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., and Mitchell, C., eds. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic, 2000.Google Scholar
Berlage, H.P.Fluctuations of the General Atmospheric Circulation of More Than One Year, Their Nature and Prognostic Value.” Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Yearbook 69(1957):151-59.Google Scholar
Berte, Y., and Ward, M.N.. “Experimental Forecast of Seasonal Rainfall and Crop Index for July-September 1997 in Cote DTvoire.” NOAA Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin 6(September 1997):2729.Google Scholar
Biondi, F., Lange, C.B., Hughes, M.K., and Berger, W.H.. “Inter-Decadal Signals During the Last Millennium (AD 1117-1992) in the Varve Record of Santa Barbara Basin, California.” Geophysical Research Letters 24(January 15 1997):193-96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bjerknes, J.A Possible Response of Hadley Circulation to Equatorial Anomalies of Ocean Temperature.” Tellus 18,4(1966):820-29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bjerknes, J.Atmospheric Teleconnections from the Equatorial Pacific.” Monthly Weather Review 97(March 1969):163-72.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bjerknes, V.The Problem of Weather Forecasting Considered from the Point of View of Mathematics and Mechanics.” Meteorologische Zeit-schrift 21(1904):17.Google Scholar
Bonsai, B.R., Chakravarti, A.K., and Lawford, R.G.. “Teleconnections Between North Pacific SST Anomalies and Growing Season Extended Dry Spells on the Canadian Prairies.” International Journal of Climatology 13(December 1993):865-78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowman, P.J., McKeon, G.M., and White, D.H.. “An Evaluation of the Impact of Long-Range Climate Forecasting on the Physical and Financial Performance of Wool-Producing Enterprises in Victoria.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 46,4(1995):687702.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Broad, K., and Agrawala, S.. “The Ethiopia Food Crisis-Uses and Limits of Climate Forecasts.” Science 289(September 2000):1693-94.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brown, B.G., Katz, R.W., and Murphy, R.M.. “On the Economic Value of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts: The Fallowing/Planting Problem.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 67(July 1986):833-41.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buizer, J.L., Foster, J., and Lund, D.. “Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81 (September 2000):2121-39.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buizza, R.Accuracy and Potential Economic Value of Categorical and Probabilistic Forecasts of Discrete Events.” Monthly Weather Review 129(September 2001):2329-45.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burroughs, W.J.Weather Cycles.” Weather 49(June 1994):202-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Busalacchi, A.J., and O'Brien, J.J.. “The Seasonal Variability in a Model of the Tropical Pacific.” Journal of Physical Oceanography 10(December 1980):1929-51.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byerlee, D.R., and Anderson, J.R.. “The Value of Predictors of Uncontrolled Factors in Response Functions.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 13(December 1969):118-27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byerlee, D.R., and Anderson, J.R.. “Risk Utility and the Value of Information in Farmers Decision Making.” Review Marketing and Agricultural Economics 50(December 1982):231-46.Google Scholar
Callahan, B., Miles, E., and Fluharty, D.. “Policy Implications of Climate Forecasts for Water Resources Management in the Pacific Northwest.” Policy Science 32(September 1999):269-93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canadian Institute for Climate Studies. University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada. Internet site: http://www.cics.uvic.ca/index.cgi (Accessed January 2002).Google Scholar
Cane, M.A.Putting the Pieces Back Together: What are the Problems We Need to ‘Tackle’ in the Next Five Years?” Paper presented at the Systems Approach to ENSO, ENSO Colloquium, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, July 20-August 1, 1997.Google Scholar
Cane, M.A., and Zebiak, S.E.. “A Theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation.” Science 228(May 1985):1085-87.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cane, M.A., and Zebiak, S.E.. “Prediction of El Niño Events Using a Physical Model.” Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability. Cattle, H., ed. London, U.K.: Royal Meteorological Society Press, 1987.Google Scholar
Cane, M.A., Eshel, G., and Buckland, R.W.. “Forecasting Zimbabwean Maize Using Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.” Nature 370(July 1994):204-5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chambers, R.G.Applied Production Analysis. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1988.Google Scholar
Chang, P., Penland, C., Ji, L., Li, H., and Matrosova, L.. “Prediction of Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature.” Geophysical Research Letters 25(April 15, 1998):1193-96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Changnon, D., Creech, T., Marsili, N., Murrell, W., and Saxinger, M.. “Interactions with a Weather-Sensitive Decision Maker: A Case Study Incorporating ENSO Information into a Strategy for Purchasing Natural Gas.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(June 1999):1117-26.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Changnon, D., Ritsche, M., Elyea, K., Shelton, S., and Schramm, K.. “Integrating Climate Forecasts and Natural Gas Supply Information into a Natural Gas Purchasing Decision.” Meteorological Applications 7(September 2000):211-16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Changnon, S.A.Assessment of Uses and Values of the New Climate Forecasts.” Paper presented to the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, March 1997.Google Scholar
Changnon, S.A., and Kunkel, K.E.. “Rapidly Expanding Uses of Climate Data and Information in Agriculture and Water Resources: Causes and Characteristics of New Applications.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(May 1999):821-30.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Changnon, S.A., Changnon, J.M., and Changnon, D.. “Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76(May 1995):711-20.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Charney, J.G., and Shukla, J.. “Predictability of Monsoons.” Proceedings of the Joint IUTAM/IUGG International Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics, New Delhi, India, December 1977. Ligththill, J. and Pierce, R.P., eds. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Charney, J.G., Fleagle, R.G., Riehl, H., Lally, V.E., and Wark, D.Q.. “The Feasibility of a Global Observation and Analysis Experiment.” Bulletin of the American Phyical Society (March 1966):200-20.Google Scholar
Chavas, J.P., and Pope, R.D.. “Information: Its Measurement and Valuation.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66(December 1984):705-10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, C.C., and McCarl, B.A.. “The Value of ENSO Information to Agriculture: Consideration of Event Strength and Trade.” Journal of Agricultural Resource Economics 25 (December 2000):368-85.Google Scholar
Chen, C.C., McCarl, B.A., and Adams, R.M.. “Economic Implications of Potential ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts.” Climatic Change 49(April 2001):147-59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, C.C., McCarl, B.A., and Hill, H.S.J.. “The Value of ENSO Information Under Alternative ENSO Phase Definitions.” Forthcoming in Climatic Change, 2002.Google Scholar
Chiew, F.H.S., Piechota, T.C., Dracup, J.A., and McMahon, T.A.. “El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Australia Rainfall, Streamflow and Drought: Links and Potential for Forecasting.” Journal of Hydrology 204(January 1998):139-49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Costello, C.J., Adams, R.M., and Polasky, S.. “The Value of El Niño Forecasts in the Management of Salmon: A Stochastic Dynamic Assessment.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80(November 1998):765-77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crowley, T.J., Nowlin, W.D. Jr., McCarl, B.A., and Mjelde, J.W.. “Benefits of Improved Climate Prediction.” Technical Report No. 2, Center for Climate Studies, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, November 1995.Google Scholar
Derr, V.E., and Slutz, R.J.. “Prediction of El Niño Events in the Pacific by Means of Neural Networks.” AI Applications: Natural Resources, Agriculture, and Environmental Science 8(July 1994):5163.Google Scholar
Easterling, W.E.Subscribers to the NOAA Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 67 (April 1986):402-8.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Easterling, W.E., and Mjelde, J.W.. “The Importance of Seasonal Climate Prediction Lead Time in Agricultural Decision Making.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 40(June 1987):3750.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enfield, D.B.Relationships of Inter-American Rainfall to Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST Variability.” Geophysical Research Letters 23(November 1996):3505-8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enfield, D.B., Mestas-Nuñez, A.M., and Trimble, P.J.. “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Its Relationship to Rainfall and River Flows in the Continental U.S.” Geophysical Research Letters 28(May 2001):2077-80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferreyra, R.A., Podestá, G.P., Messina, C.D., Letson, D., Dardanelli, J., Guevara, E., and Meira, S.. “A Linked-Modeling Framework to Estimate Maize Production Risk Associated with ENSO-Related Climate Variability in Argentina.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 107(April 2001):177-92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fleer, H.E.Teleconnections of Rainfall Anomalies in the Tropics.” Monsoon Dynamics. Light-foot, J. and Pearce, R.P., eds. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Friis-Christensen, E., and Lassen, K.. “Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate.” Science 254(November 1991):652-53.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Garnett, R., Khandekar, E., Madhav, L., and Babb, J.C.. “On the Utility of ENSO and PNA Indices for Long-Lead Forecasting of Summer Weather Over the Crop Growing Regions of the Canadian Prairies.” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 60(January 1997):37-45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Georgakakos, A.P., Yao, H.M., Mullusky, M.G., and Georgakakos, K.P.. “Impacts of Climate Variability on the Operational Forecast and Management of the Upper Des Moines River Basin.” Water Resources Research 34(ApriI 1998):799821.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gershunov, A., and Barnett, T.P.. “Interdecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnections.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79(December 1998):2715-26.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glantz, M.H., ed. The Politics of Natural Disaster: The Case of the Sahel Drought. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1976.Google Scholar
Glantz, M.H., ed. Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1996.Google Scholar
Glantz, M.H., ed. Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño. New York: The United Nations University, 2001.Google Scholar
Glantz, M.H., Betsill, M., and Crandall, K.. “Food Security in Southern Africa: Assessing the Use and Value of ENSO Information.” Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 1997.Google Scholar
Global Climate Observation System, Working Group on Socio-Economic Benefits. “The Socio-Economic Benefits of Climate Forecasts: Literature Review and Recommendations.” Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization GCOS-12 WMO/TD No. 674, 1995.Google Scholar
Goddard, L., Mason, S.J., Zebiak, S.E., Ropelewski, C.F., Basher, R., and Cane, M.A.. “Current Approaches to Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions.” International Journal of Climatology 21(July 2001):1111-52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gould, J.P.Risk, Stochastic Preference, and the Value of Information.” Journal of Economic Theory 8(May 1974):6484.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenberg, J.Economic Benefits of Improved Meteorological Forecasts.” Weather Forecasting and Weather Forecasts: Models, Systems, and User, Boulder, CO.: National Center For Atmospheric Research, Volume 2, pp. 608-29, 1976.Google Scholar
Guetter, A.K., and Georgakakos, K.P.. “Are El Niño and La Nina Predictors of the Iowa River Seasonal Flow?Journal of Applied Meteorology 35(May 1996):690705.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hales, S., Weinstein, P., Souares, P., and Woodward, A.. “El Niño and the Dynamics of Vector-borne Disease Transmission.” Environmental Health Perspectives (February 1999):99102.Google Scholar
Hamlet, A.F., Huppert, D., and Lettenmaier, D.P.. “Economic Value of Long-Lead Streamfiow Forecasts for Columbia River Hydropower.” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 129(March/April 2002):91101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammer, G.L.Personal Communication. Principal Scientist, Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU). Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia, October 22, 1998.Google Scholar
Hammer, G.L., and Nicholls, N.. “Managing for Climate Variability—The Role of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Improving Agricultural Systems.” Invited Paper, 2nd Australian Conference on Agricultural Meteorology, Brisbane, Australia, October 1-4, 1996.Google Scholar
Hammer, G.L., Holzworth, D.P., and Stone, R.. “The Value of Skill in Seasonal Climate Forecasting to Wheat Crop Management in a Region with High Climatic Variability.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 47,5(1996):717-37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., and Mitchell, C., eds. Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic, 2000.Google Scholar
Hammer, G.L., Hansen, J.W., Phillips, J.G., Mjelde, J.W., Hill, H., Love, A., and Potgieter, A.. “Advances in Application of Climate Prediction in Agriculture.” Agricultural Systems 70(November-December 2001):515-53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Handler, P.USA Corn Yields, the El Niño and Agricultural Drought: 1867-1988.” International Journal of Climatology 10(June 1990):819-28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Handler, P., and Handler, E.. “Climatic Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and Corn Yields in the United States.” Science 220(June 1983):1155-56.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hansen, J.W., Hodges, A.W., and Jones, J.W.. “ENSO Influences on Agriculture in the Southeastern United States.” Journal of Climate 11(March 1998):404-11.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, J.W., Jones, J.W., Irmark, A., and Royce, F.. “El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Crop Production in the Southeastern United States.” American Society of Agronomy, Special Publication Number 63, Impacts of El Niño and Climatic Variability on Agriculture, Madison, WI, pp. 5576, 2001.Google Scholar
Hill, H.S.J., Mjelde, J.W., Rosenthal, W., and Lamb, P.J.. “The Potential Impacts of the Use of Southern Oscillation Information on the Texas Aggregate Sorghum Production.” Journal of Climate 12(February 1998):519-30.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, H.S.J., Park, J., Mjelde, J.W., Rosenthal, W., Love, H.A., and Fuller, S.W.. “Comparing the Value of Southern Oscillation Index-Based Climate Forecast Methods for Canadian and U.S. Wheat Producers.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 100(February 2000):261-72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, H.S.J., Mjelde, J.W., Love, H.A., Fuller, S.W., Rubas, D.J., Rosenthal, W., and Hammer, G.L.. “Potential Implications of the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on World Wheat Trade.” Working Paper, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 2002.Google Scholar
Hill, H.S.J., Butler, D.B., Fuller, S.W., Hammer, G.L., Holzworth, D., Love, H.A., Meinke, H., Mjelde, J.W., Park, J., and Rosenthal, W.. “Effects of Seasonal Climate Variability and the Use of Climate Forecasts on Wheat Supply in the U.S., Australia, and Canada.” American Society of Agronomy, Special Publication Number 63, Impacts of El Niño and Climatic Variability on Agriculture, Madison, WI, pp. 101-23, 2001a.Google Scholar
Hilton, R.W.The Determinants of Information Value: Synthesizing Some General Results.” Management Science 27(January 1981):5764.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoerling, M.P., Kumar, A., and Zhang, M.. “El Niño, La Nina, and the Nonlinearity of Their Teleconnections.” Journal of Climate 10(August 1997):1769-86.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jochec, K.G., Mjelde, J.W., Lee, A.C., and Conner, J.R.. “Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Rangeland-Based Livestock Operations in West Texas.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 40(September 2001):1629-39.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, J.W., Hansen, J.W., Royce, F.S., and Messina, C.D.. “Potential Benefits of Climate Forecasting to Agriculture.” Agricultural, Ecosystems, and Environment 82(December 2000):169-84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahya, E., and Dracup, J.A.. “U.S. Streamfiow Patterns in Relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” Water Resources Research 29(August 1993):2491-503.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kane, R.P.Relationship Between QB's of Stratospheric Winds, ENSO Variability and Other Parameters.” International Journal of Climatology 12(May 1992):435-47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, R.W., and Murphy, A.H.. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, R.W., Murphy, A.H., and Winkler, R.L.. “Assessing the Value of Frost Forecasts to Orchardists: A Dynamic Decision-Making Approach.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 21 (April 1982):518-31.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keppenne, C.L.An ENSO Signal in Soybean Futures Prices.” Journal of Climate 8(July 1995):168589.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kerr, R.A.A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries.” Science 288(June 2000):1984-86.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Khandekar, M.L.El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Indian Monsoon and World Grain Yields—A Synthesis.” Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, Volume 7. El-Sabh, M.I., Venkatesh, S., Denis, H., and Murty, T.S., eds. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Publishers, 1996.Google Scholar
Khinchin, A.I.Mathematical Foundations of Information. Silverman, R.A. and Friedman, M.D. translators. New York: Dover Publications, 1957.Google Scholar
Kiladis, G.N., and Diaz, H.F.. “Global Climatic Anomalies Associated with Extremes of the Southern Oscillation.” Journal of Climate 2(September 1989):1069-90.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klopper, E.The Use of Seasonal Forecasts in South Africa During the 1997/98 Rainfall Season.” Water SA 25(July 1999):311-16.Google Scholar
Kovats, R.S.El Niño and Human Health.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 78(September 2000):11352000.Google ScholarPubMed
Kuhnel, I.Nature's Tax: The East Gippsland Floods.” Natural Hazards Quarterly 4(July 1998):12.Google Scholar
Kunkel, K., Pielke, R.A. Jr., and Changnon, S.A.. “Temporal Fluctuations in Weather and Climate Extremes that Cause Economic and Human Health Impacts: A Review.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(June 1999):1077-98.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lagos, P.Application of El Niño Prediction to the Agriculture Sector in Peru.” Paper presented at the ENSO Colloquium, National Climate and Atmospheric Research Center, Boulder, CO, July 20-August 1, 1997.Google Scholar
Lagos, P., and Buizer, J.. “El Niño and Peru: A Nation's Response to Interannual Climate Variability.” Natural and Technological Disasters: Causes, Effects, and Preventative Measures. Majumdar, S.K., Forbes, G.S., Miller, E.W., and Schmaltz, R.F., eds. Harrisburg, PA: Pennsylvania Academy of Sciences, 1992.Google Scholar
Lamb, P.J.Some Perspectives on Climate and Climate Dynamics.” Progress in Physcial Geography 3(June 1979):215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamb, P.J.Do We Know What We Should Be Trying to Forecast-Climatically?Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 62(July 1981):1000.Google Scholar
Lamb, P.J., and Peppier, R.A.. “Large-Scale Atmospheric Features Associated With Drought in Morrocco.” Proceedings of Drought, Water Management and Food Production Conf, Kingdom of Morrocco, Rabat. Agadir, Morocco, November 21-24, 1985.Google Scholar
Lamb, P.J., and Peppier, R.A.. “North Atlantic Oscillation: Concept and Application.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 68(October 1987):1218-25.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lave, L.B.The Value of Better Weather Information to the Raisin Industry.” Econometrica 31 (January-April 1963):151-64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Letson, D., Llovet, I., Podesta, G., Royce, F., Brescia, V., Lema, D., and Parellada, G.. “User Perspectives of Climate Forecasts: Crop Producers in Pergamina, Argentina.” Climate Research 19(November 2001):5767.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lorenz, E.N.A Study of the Predictability of a 28 Variable Atmospheric Model.” Tellus 17(August 1965):321-33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lowther, P.L.The Development of a Seasonal Climate Forecasts Methodology for ITCZ Associated Rainfall Applied to Eastern Africa.” Ph.D. dissertation. Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, 1998.Google Scholar
Maelzer, D., Hales, S., Weinstein, P., Zalucki, M., and Woodward, A.. “El Niño and Arboviral Disease Prediction.” Environmental Health Perspectives 107(October 1999):817-18.Google ScholarPubMed
Mantua, N.J.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation.” The Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change. Volume 1: The Earth System's Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2001.Google Scholar
Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., and Francis, R.C.. “A Pacific Inter-Decadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(June 1997):1069-79.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marschak, J.Remarks on the Economics of Information.” Contributions to Scientific Research in Management. The proceedings of the scientific program following the dedication of the Western Data Processing Center, Graduate School of Business Administration, University of California, Los Angeles, University of California Printing Department, January 29-30, 1959.Google Scholar
Marshall, G.R., Partem, K.A., and Hammer, G.L.. “Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions and the Value of Seasonal Forecasts to a Dryland Wheat Grower.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 40(December 1996):211-33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, J., Kushnir, Y., Battisti, D., Chang, P., J.Hurrell, and McCartney, M.. “Atlantic Climate Variability.” White Paper, CLIVAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 1997.Google Scholar
Mason, S.J., and Goddard, L.. “Probabilistic Precipitation Anomalies Associated with ENSO.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82(April 2001):619-38.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, S.J., Goddard, L., Graham, N.E., Yulaeva, E., Sun, L., and Arkin, P.A.. “The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El Niño Event.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(September 1999):1853-73.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mazzocco, M.A., Mjelde, J.W., Sonka, S.T., Lamb, P.J., and Hollinger, S.E.. “Using Hierarchical Systems Aggregation to Model the Value of Information in Agricultural Systems: An Application for Climate Forecast Information.” Agricultural Systems 2,4(1992):393412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGuffie, K., and Henderson-Sellers, A.. “Forty Years of Numerical Climate Modeling.” International Journal of Climatology 21 (July 2001):10671109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McNew, K.P., Mapp, H.P., Duchon, C.E., and Merritt, E.S.. “Sources and Uses of Weather Information for Agricultural Decision Makers.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 72( April 1991):491-98.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merkhofer, M.W.The Value of Information Given Decision Flexibility.” Management Science 23(March 1977):716-27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Messina, C.D., Hansen, J.W., and Hall, A.J.. “Land Allocation Conditioned on El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phases in the Pampas of Argentina.” Agricultural Systems 60(June 1999):197212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Minobe, S.A 50-70 Year Climatic Oscillation Over the North Pacific and North America.” Geophysical Research Letters 24(March 1997):683-86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W.Dynamic Programming Model of the Corn Production Decision Process with Stochastic Climate Forecasts.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, 1985.Google Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., and Cochran, M.J.. “Obtaining Lower and Upper Bounds on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts as a Function of Risk Preferences.” Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 13(December 1988):184-92.Google Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., and Dixon, B.L.. “Valuing the Lead Time of Periodic Forecasts in Dynamic Production Systems.” Agricultural Systems 42(October 1993):4155.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., and Hill, H.S.J.. “An Analysis of the Impact of Improved Climate Forecasts on Economic and Production Factors.” Agricultural Systems 60(June 1999):213-25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., and Keplinger, K.. “Using the Southern Oscillations to Forecast Texas Winter Wheat and Sorghum Crop Yields.” Journal of Climate 11(January 1998):5460.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Hill, H.S.J., and Griffiths, J.F.. “A Review of Current Evidence on Climate Forecasts and Their Economic Effects in Agriculture.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80(December 1998):1080-95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Penson, J.B., and Nixon, C.J.. “Dynamic Aspects of the Impact of the Use of Perfect Climate Forecasts in the Corn Belt Region.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 39(January 2000):6779.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Sonka, S.T., and Peel, D.S.. The Socioeconomic Value of Climate and Weather Forecasting: A Review. Midwestern Climate Center, Climate and Meteorology Section, Illinois State Water Survey, Champagne, IL, Research Report 89-01, 1989.Google Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Thompson, T.N., and Nixon, C.J.. “Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78(February 1996):175-88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Peel, D.S., Sonka, S.T., and Lamb, P.J.. “Characteristics of Climate Forecast Quality. Implications for Economic Value to Midwestern Corn Producers.” Journal of Climate 6(November 1993):2175-87.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Sonka, S.T., Dixon, B.L., and Lamb, P.J.. “Valuing Forecast Characteristics in a Dynamic Agricultural Production System.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70(August 1988):674-84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Thompson, T.N., Nixon, C.J., and Lamb, P.J.. “Utilizing a Farm-Level Decision Model for Prioritizing Future Climatic Research Needs.” Meteorological Applications 4(June 1997a):161-70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Love, H.A., Rubas, D.J., Rosenthal, W., and Hill, H.S.J.. “Potential Effect of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Competitiveness in the World Wheat Market.” Draft of a Report to the United States Department of Agriculture, No. 00-35400-9124, August 2002.Google Scholar
Mjelde, J.W., Thompson, T.N., Hons, F.M., Cothren, J.T., and Coffman, C.G.. “Using Southern Oscillation Forecasts for Determining Corn and Sorghum Profit-Maximizing Levels in Central Texas.” Journal of Production Agricultural 10(January-March 1997b):168-75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montroy, D.L.Linear Relation of Central and Eastern North American Precipitation to Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies.” Journal of Climate 10(April 1997):541-58.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montroy, D.L., Richman, M.B., and Lamb, P.J.. “Observed Nonlinearities of Monthly Telecon-nections Between Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Central and Eastern North American Precipitation.” Journal of Climate 11(July 1998):1812-35.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, J.L., and Armstrong, J.M.. “The Use of Linear Programming Techniques for Estimating the Benefits from Increased Accuracy of Water Supply Forecasts.” Water Resource Research 12( August 1976):629-39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, A.H.What is a Good Forecast—An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting.” Weather and Forecasting 8(June 1993):281-93.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naranjo-Diaz, L.R.ENSO Impact on Cuba.” Paper presented at the ENSO Colloquium, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, July 16-August 2, 1997.Google Scholar
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Environment and Societal Impact Group. Internet site: http://www.esig.ucar.edu/ (Accessed January 2002).Google Scholar
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). An Experiment in the Application of Climate Forecasts: NOOA-OGP Activities Related to the 1997-98 El Niño Event. Office of Global Programs National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, Silver Springs, MD. Internet site: http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/retro/ensodoc.htm (Accessed January 1999).Google Scholar
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program. Internet site: http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/risa/index.htm (Accessed January 2002a).Google Scholar
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program. Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction. Internet site: http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/cdep/index.htm (Accessed January 2002b).Google Scholar
National Research Council. Climate Research Council, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. Goals For Predicting Seasonal-to-In-terannual Climate. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1994.Google Scholar
National Research Council. Climate Research Council, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. Advisory Panel for the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Program (TOGA Panel). Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated With El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996.Google Scholar
Naylor, R.L., Falcon, W.P., Rochberg, D., and Wada, N.. “Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Predict Rice Production in Indonesia.” Climatic Change 50(August 2001):255-65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholls, J.M.Economic and Social Benefits of Climatological Information and Services: A Review of Existing Assessments.” World Meteorological Organization WMO/TD No. 780, Switzerland, 1996.Google Scholar
Nicholls, N.Use of the Southern Oscillation to Predict Australian Sorghum Yield.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 38(October 1986):915.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholls, N.Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Predictions.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(July 1999):1385-97.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nigam, S., Barlow, M., and Berbery, E.H.. “Analysis Links Pacific Decadal Variability to Drought and Streamfiow in United States.” Eos 80(December 1999). Internet site: http://www.agu.org/eos_elec/99088e.html (Accessed November 2000).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Lenic, E.A.Operational Long-Lead Outlooks of Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation.” Technical Procedures Bulletin 418, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Prediction Center, Washington D.C., 1994.Google Scholar
Pacific ENSO Applications Center. PEAC Background Information. Internet site: http://lumahai.soest.hawaii.edu/Enso/back/background.html (Accessed January 2002).Google Scholar
Pascual, M., Rodo, X., Ellner, S.P., Colwell, R., and Bouma, M.J.. “Cholera Dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.” Science 289(September 2000):1766-69.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Petersen, E.H., and Fraser, R.W.. “An Assessment of the Value of Seasonal Forecasting Technology for Western Australian Farmers.” Agricultural Systems 70(October 2001):259-74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pfaff, A., Broad, K., and Glantz, M.. “Who Benefits from Climate Forecasts?Nature 397(February 1999):645-46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, J.G., and Mclntyre, B.. “ENSO and Inter-annual Rainfall Variability in Uganda: Implications for Agricultural Management.” International Journal of Climatology 20(February 2000):171-82.3.0.CO;2-O>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, J.G., Cane, M.A., and Rosenzweig, C.. “ENSO, Seasonal Rainfall Patterns and Simulated Maize Yield Variability in Zimbabwe.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 90(March 1998):3950.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, J.G., Makaudze, E., and Unganai, L.. “Current and Potential Use of Climate Forecasts for Resource-Poor Farmers in Zimbabwe.” American Society of Agronomy, Special Publication Number 63, Impacts of El Niño and Climatic Variability on Agriculture, Madison, WI, pp. 87100, 2001.Google Scholar
Pielke, R.A. Jr., and Landsea, C.W.. “Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925-1995.” Weather and Forecasting 13(September 1998):351-61.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pielke, R.A. Jr., and Landsea, C.W.. “La Nina, El Niño, and Atlantic Hurricane Damages in the United States.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(October 1999):2027-33.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pielke, R.A. Jr., Kimple, J., Adams, C., Baker, J., Changnon, S., Heideman, K.F., Leavitt, P., Keener, R.N., McCarthy, J., Miller, K., Murphy, A.H., Pulwarty, R.S., Roth, R., Stanley, E.M., Stewart, T., and Zacharias, T.. “Societal Aspects of Weather: Report of the Sixth Prospectus Development Team of U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and NSF.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(May 1997):867-76.Google Scholar
Podbury, T., Sheales, T.C., Hussain, I., and Fisher, B.S.. “Use of El Niño Climate Forecasts in Australia.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80(December 1998):10961101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Price, S.Thunderstorm Today?Weatherwise 2(1949):6167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pulwarty, R.S., and Melis, T.S.. “Climate Extremes and Adaptive Management on the Colorado River: Lessons from the 1997-1998 ENSO Event.” Journal of Environmental Management 63(November 2001):307-24.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Pulwarty, R.S., and Redmond, K.T.. “Climate and Salmon Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: The Role and Usability of Seasonal Forecasts.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(March 1997):381-97.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Queensland Centre for Climate Applications. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Toowoomba, Australia. Internet site: http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/qcca/Welcome.html (Accessed April 1998).Google Scholar
Rajagopalan, B., Kushnir, Y., and Tourre, Y.M.. “Observed Decadal Midlatitude and Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability.” Geophyscial Research Letters 25(November 1998):3967-70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rasmusson, E.M., and Wallace, J.M.. “Meteorological Aspects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” Science 222(December 1983):11951202.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Richardson, D.S.Skill and Relative Economic Value of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126(January 2000):649-67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rimmington, G.M., and Nicholls, N.. “Forecasting Wheat Yields in Australia with the Southern Oscillation Index.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 44,4(1993):625-32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ropelewski, C.F., and Halpert, M.S.. “North American Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).” Monthly Weather Review 114(December 1986):2352-62.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ropelewski, C.F., and Halpert, M.S.. “Global and Regional Scale Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” Monthly Weather Review 115(August 1987):1606-26.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ropelewski, C.F., and Halpert, M.S.. “Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation.” Journal of Climate 2(March 1989):268-84.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., and Wang, X.. “Observed Tropospheric Biennial Variability and Its Relationship to the Southern Oscillation.” Journal of Climate 5(June 1992):594614.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenzweig, C.Maize Suffers a Sea-Change.” Nature 370(July 1994):27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Royal Meteorological Society. “Sir Gilbert Walker.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 85(April 1959):186.Google Scholar
Russo, M., Changnon, D., Podolak, M., Freestrom, H., and Davis, J.B.. “Using Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies to Forecasts Seasonal Energy Demand in Four U.S. Regions: An Applied Climate Research Experience for Undergraduate Meteorology Students.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(June 1999):1130-47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shabbar, A., and Barnston, A.G.. “Skill of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Canada Using Canonical Correlation Analysis.” Monthly Weather Review 124(October 1996):2370-85.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sherrick, B.J., Sonka, S.T., Lamb, P.J., and Mazzocco, M.A.. “Decision-Maker Expectations and the Value of Climate Prediction Information: Conceptual Considerations and Preliminary Evidence.” Meteorological Applications 7(December 2000):377-87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shukla, J.Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting.” Science 282(October 1998):728-31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solow, A.R., Adams, R.F., Bryant, K.J., Legler, D.M., O'Brien, J.J., McCarl, B.A., Nayda, W., and Weiher, R.. “The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture.” Climatic Change 39(May 1998):4760.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sonka, S.T., Changnon, S.A. Jr., and Hofing, S.L.. “How Agribusiness Uses Climate Predictions: Implications for Climate Research and Provision of Predictions.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73(December 1992):19992008.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sonka, S.T., Lamb, P.J., Changnon, S.A., and Wiboonpongse, A.. “Can Climate Forecasts for the Growing Season be Valuable to Crop Producers: Some General Considerations and an Illinois Pilot Study.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 21 (April 1982):471-76.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stefanski, R.J.Potential El Niño Impacts on U.S. Feed Grain Production.” Feed, Situation, and Outlook Report. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service FDS-322, May 1992.Google Scholar
Stern, H.The Application of Weather Derivatives to Mitigate the Financial Risk of Climate Variability and Extreme Events.” Australian Meteorological Magazine 50(September 2001):171-82.Google Scholar
Stern, P.C., and Easterling, W.E., eds. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1999.Google Scholar
Stewart, R.T., Katz, R.W., and Murphy, A.H.. “Value of Weather Information: A Descriptive Study of the Fruit-Frost Problem.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 65 (February 1984):126-37.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, R.C., and Auliciems, A.. “SOI Phase Relationships with Rainfall in Eastern Australia.” International Journal of Climatology 12(April 1992):625-36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, R.C., Hammer, G.L., and Marcussen, T.. “Prediction of Global Rainfall Probabilities Using Phases of the Southern Oscillation Index.” Nature 384(November 1996):252-55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, R.C., Smith, I., and Mcintosh, P.. Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems The Australian Experience. Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., and Mitchell, C., eds. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic, 2000.Google Scholar
Stuart, A.On the Economic Value of Probability of Precipitation Forecasts in Canada.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 21 (April 1982):495-98.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sumner, D.A., Hallstrom, D.G., and Lee, H.. “Trade Policy and the Effects of Climate Forecasts on Agricultural Markets.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79(December 1999):309-22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, L.M.Relationship of the El Niño Cycle to Droughts in the U.S. Corn Belt.” Cycles 41(February 1990):14.Google Scholar
Trenberth, K.E.The Definition of El Niño.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(December 1997):2771-77.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tribbia, J.J.Weather Prediction.” Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts. Katz, R. and Murphy, A.H., eds. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1997.Google Scholar
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. “El Niño and Climate Prediction.” Reports to the Nation on Our Changing Planet. NOAA Award No. NA27GP0232-01, Boulder, CO, Spring 1994.Google Scholar
Van Loon, H.Personal Communication. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, February 1998.Google Scholar
Van Loon, H., and Labitzke, K.. “Association Between the 11-Year Solar Cycle, the QBO, and the Atmosphere. Part II: Surface and the 700 mb in the Northern Hemisphere in Winter.” Journal of Climate 1(September 1988):905-20.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Loon, H., and Labitzke, K.. “Association Between the 11-Year Solar Cycle and the Atmosphere, Part V: Summer.” Journal of Climate 5 (March 1992):240-51.Google Scholar
Van Loon, H., and Labitzke, K.. “Connection Between the Troposphere and Stratosphere on a Decadal Scale.” Tellus 47A(March 1995a):275-86.Google Scholar
Van Loon, H., and Labitzke, K.. “Connection Between the Troposphere and Stratosphere on the Time Scale of the Sunspot Cycle.” Journal of Geomagnetism and Geoelectricity 47,11(1995b):1249-56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vining, K.C., Pope, C.A. III, and Dugas, W.A. Jr.Usefulness of Weather Information to Texas Agricultural Producers.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 65(December 1984):1316-19.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walker, G.T.Correlation in Seasonal Variations of Weather, IX: A Further Study of World Weather.” Indian Meteorological Department 24(1924):275332.Google Scholar
Wang, G., and Eltahir, E.A.B.. “Use of ENSO Information in Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting of Nile Floods.” Journal of Climate 12(June 1999):1726-37.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Webster, P.J., and Yang, S.. “Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively Interactive Systems.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 118(July 1992):877926.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Webster, P.J., Magana, V.O., Palmer, T.N., Shulka, J., Tomas, R.A., Yanai, M., and Yasunari, A.. “Monsoons: Processes, Predictability and the Prospects for Prediction.” Journal of Geophysical Research 103,C7(June 1998):14451-510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weiss, E.B.International Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting.” Stanford Journal of International Law 17(1981):315-45.Google Scholar
Weiss, E.B.The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 21(1982):510-17.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, D.J.Forecasts and Decisionmaking.” Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 14(1966):163-73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilks, D.S.Diagnostic Verification of the Climate Prediction Center Long-Lead Outlooks, 1995-98. Journal of Climate 13(July 2000):2389-403.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilks, D.S.. “A Skill Score Based on Economic Value for Probability Forecasts.” Meteorological Applications 8(June 2001):209-19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilks, D.S., and Wolfe, D.W.. “Optimal Use and Economic Value of Weather Forecasts for Lettuce Irrigation in a Humid Climate.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 89(February 1998):115-29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wittrock, V.S.The Influence of Synoptic-Scale Forcing on Soil Moisture Over the Eastern Canadian Prairies.” M.S. thesis. University of Saskatchewan, 1996.Google Scholar
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). “About Us.” Internet site: http://www.wmo.ch/indexflash.html (Accessed December 2001).Google Scholar
Wyrtki, K.E., Patzert, W., Williams, R., and Quinn, W.. “Predicting and Observing El Niño.” Science 191(January 1976):343-46.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Yao, H., and Georgakakos, A.. “Assessment of Folsom Lake Response to Historical and Potential Future Climate Scenarios 2.” Journal of Hydrology 249(August 2001):176-96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zeng, L.X.Weather Derivatives and Weather Insurance: Concept, Application, and Analysis.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81 (September 2000):2075-82.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., and Battisti, D.S.. “ENSO-Like Interdecadal Variability: 1900-93.” Journal of Climate 10(May 1997): 1004-20.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar