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Economics and Uncertainty of Lignocellulosic Biofuel Production from Energy Cane and Sweet Sorghum in South Texas

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 June 2017

Juan J. Monge ,
Luis A. Ribera ,
John L. Jifon ,
Jorge A. da Silva  and
James W. Richardson
Juan J. Monge
Affiliation:
Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension, Weslaco, Texas
Luis A. Ribera
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
John L. Jifon
Affiliation:
Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension, Weslaco, Texas
Jorge A. da Silva
Affiliation:
Department of Soil and Crop Sciences and Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension, Weslaco, Texas
James W. Richardson
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
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Abstract

Government support uncertainty, scarce yield information, and the inherent risk in bioeconomic phenomena are some of the deterrents faced by investors in the nascent cellulosic biofuel industry. A financial probabilistic model was developed to contrast the economic feasibility of producing cellulosic biofuels from energy cane and sweet sorghum using three technologies: hydrolysis, pyrolysis, and gasification. Hydrolysis and pyrolysis proved feasible (showed possibilities of a positive net present value) without government support and conditioned to stochastic feedstock yields and biofuel prices. Gasification was feasible with government support. Improved feedstock and biofuel productivity would considerably raise the feasibility probabilities for hydrolysis and pyrolysis without government support.

Keywords

cellulosic biofuelenergy canegasificationhydrolysisMonte Carlo simulationnet present valuepyrolysissweet sorghumG17Q16Q48
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 46 , Issue 4 , November 2014 , pp. 457 - 485
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2014

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