Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jn8rn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T14:31:16.486Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Post-Cold War autocratization: trends and patterns of regime change opposite to democratization

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 May 2019

Andrea Cassani Open the ORCID record for Andrea Cassani [Opens in a new window]  and
Luca Tomini
Andrea Cassani*
Affiliation:
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, via Conservatorio 7, 20122 Milano, Italy
Luca Tomini
Affiliation:
Centre d'Etude de la Vie Politique, Faculté de Philosophie et Sciences Sociales, Université libre de Bruxelles, avenue Jeanne, 44, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium, [email protected]
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

The so-called third wave of democratization is over and scholars are increasingly alert to the apparently growing number of regime changes in the opposite direction. However, there is little agreement concerning how many distinct forms these processes can take, and even less systematic cross-regional analysis of the phenomenon, which diminishes our ability to seize its actual import. Accordingly, this article pursues a twofold goal. First, we present a framework for the analysis of the processes opposite to democratization. Specifically, we build on the notion of ‘autocratization’, identify similarities and differences between the various forms it can take, and catalogue how it can happen. Second, we provide new data on post-Cold War cases across the world and use these data to map the prevailing trends. The analysis confirms the increasing empirical relevance of the phenomenon, and reveals the existence of a few geographical and historical patterns in the forms and modes of contemporary autocratization.

Keywords

Authoritarianismautocratizationdemocratizationregime change
Type
Research Article
Information
Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica , Volume 49 , Special Issue 2: Autocracy Strikes Back: Authoritarian Resurgence in the Early 21st Century , July 2019 , pp. 121 - 138
Copyright
Copyright © Società Italiana di Scienza Politica 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adebanwi, W and Obadare, E (2011) The abrogation of the electorate: an emergent African phenomenon. Democratization 18, 311–335.Google Scholar
Agh, A (2015) De-Europeanization and de-democratization trends in ECE: from the Potemkin democracy to the elected autocracy in Hungary. Journal of Comparative Politics 8, 4–26.Google Scholar
Berg-Schlosser, D (2008) Determinants of democratic successes and failures in Africa. European Journal of Political Research 47, 269–306.Google Scholar
Berg-Schlosser, D and Mitchell, J (eds) (2002) Authoritarianism and Democracy in Europe, 1919–39: Comparative Analyses. Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Bermeo, N (2016) On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy 27, 5–19.Google Scholar
Bermeo, N (2003) Ordinary people in extraordinary times: the citizenry and the breakdown of democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Bogaards, M (2010) Measures of democratization: from degree to type to war. Political Research Quarterly 63, 475–488.Google Scholar
Carbone, G and Cassani, A (2016) Nigeria and democratic progress by elections in Africa. Africa Spectrum 51, 53–69.Google Scholar
Carothers, T (2002) The end of the transition paradigm. Journal of Democracy 13, 5–21.Google Scholar
Cassani, A and Tomini, L (2018) Reversing waves and concepts. From democratization to autocratization. European Political Science.Google Scholar
Cassani, A and Tomini, L (2019) Autocratization in Post-Cold War Political Regimes. Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Collier, D and Adcock, R (1999) Democracies and dichotomies: a pragmatic approach to choices about concepts. Annual Review of Political Science 2, 537–565.Google Scholar
Dahl, R (1971) Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
de la Torre, C and Ortiz Lemos, A (2016) Populist polarization and the slow death of democracy in Ecuador. Democratization 23, 221–241.Google Scholar
Diamond, L (1999) Developing Democracy. Toward Consolidation. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Diamond, L (2002) Thinking about hybrid regimes. Journal of Democracy 13, 21–35.Google Scholar
Diamond, L (2008) The democratic rollback: the resurgence of the predatory state. Foreign Affairs 87, 36–48.Google Scholar
Diamond, L (2015) Facing up to the democratic recession. Journal of Democracy 26, 141–155.Google Scholar
Diamond, L, Linz, J and Lipset, SM (eds) (1989) Democracy in Developing Countries. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Doorenspleet, R (2005) Democratic Transitions: Exploring the Structural Sources of the Fourth Wave. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Eckstein, H and Gurr, T (1975) Patterns of authority. A structural basis for political inquiry. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Fish, S (2001) The dynamics of democratic erosion. In Anderson, R et al. (eds), Postcommunism and the Theory of Democracy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 54–95.Google Scholar
Hadenius, A and Teorell, J (2007) Pathways from Authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy 18, 143–156.Google Scholar
Heydemann, S and Leenders, R (2011) Authoritarian learning and authoritarian resilience: regime responses to the Arab awakening. Globalization 8, 647–653.Google Scholar
Huntington, S (1991) The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Oklahoma City: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Kneuer, M (2011) Deficits in democratic quality? The effects of party-system institutionalisation on the quality of democracy in Central Eastern Europe. In Erdmann, G and Kneuer, M (eds), Regression of Democracy? VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, pp. 133–171.Google Scholar
Kornai, J (2015) Hungary's U-turn: retreat from democracy. Journal of Democracy 26, 34–48.Google Scholar
Levitsky, S and Way, L (2010) Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Levitsky, S and Way, L (2015) The myth of democratic recession. Journal of Democracy 26, 48–58.Google Scholar
Lindberg, S (ed) (2009) Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Linz, J and Stepan, A (eds) (1978) The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Linz, J and Stepan, A (1996) Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lueders, H and Lust, E (2018) Multiple measurements, elusive agreement, and unstable outcomes in the study of regime change. Journal of Politics 80, 736–741.Google Scholar
Luehrmann, A, Tannenberg, M and Lindberg, S (2018) Regimes of the world. Opening new avenues for the comparative study of political regimes. Politics and Governance.Google Scholar
Mechkova, V, Luehrmann, A and Lindberg, S (2017) How much democratic backsliding? Journal of Democracy 28, 162–169.Google Scholar
Merkel, W (2004) Embedded and defective democracies. Democratization 11, 33–58.Google Scholar
Merkel, W (2010) Are dictatorships returning? Revisiting the ‘democratic rollback’ hypothesis. Contemporary Politics 16, 17–31.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, G (1992) Transitions, continuities, and paradoxes. In Mainwaring, S, O'Donnell, G and Valenzuela, S (eds), Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, pp. 17–56.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, G and Schmitter, P (1986) Transition from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. John Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Plattner, M (2014) The End of the Transitions Era? Journal of Democracy 25, 5–16.Google Scholar
Przeworski, A (1991) Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Puddington, A (2010) The erosion accelerates. Journal of Democracy 21, 136–150.Google Scholar
Puddington, A and Piano, A (2005) Worrisome signs, modest shifts. Journal of Democracy 16, 103–108.Google Scholar
Sartori, G (1987) The Theory of Democracy Revisited. Chatham: Chatham House.Google Scholar
Schedler, A (1998) What is democratic consolidation? Journal of Democracy 9, 91–107.Google Scholar
Schedler, A (2006) Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Schmitter, P (1994) Dangers and dilemmas of democracy. Journal of Democracy 5, 57–74.Google Scholar
Schmitter, P (2015) Crisis and transition, but not decline. Journal of Democracy 26, 32–44.Google Scholar
Stefes, C and Sehring, J (2011) Wilted roses and tulips: the regression of democratic rule in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. In Erdmann, G and Kneuer, M (eds), Regression of Democracy? VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, pp. 221–246.Google Scholar
Tomini, L (2017) When Democracies Collapse Assessing Transitions to Non-Democratic Regimes in the Contemporary World. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Waldner, D and Lust, E (2018) Unwelcome change: coming to terms with democratic backsliding. Annual Review of Political Science 21, 93–113.Google Scholar
Whitehead, L (2002) Democratization. Theory and Practice. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Cassani and Tomini Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/0ZRPLH
Link