Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T20:44:56.689Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The importance of food systems in a climate crisis for peace and security in the Sahel

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 May 2022

Abstract

Conflicts are increasingly analysed as exhibiting a stealth complexity in which triggers and consequences are intricately linked to climate, environmental degradation and the struggle to control a finite pool of natural resources. The climate crisis is a multifaceted reality and, against this background, many pressing priorities compete with each other. The disruptive effect of climate variability and change on food systems is particularly acute and constitutes a direct and tangible threat to livelihoods globally. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate and discuss the importance of food systems under a climate crisis in exacerbating conflicts in the Sahelian region and propose interventions beyond and complementary to the usual military and security solutions. We demonstrate for the Sahel that (i) climate hazards are frequent and exposure to climate variability is high, (ii) hotspots of high climate variability and conflict exist, and (iii) impact pathways by which climate exacerbates food systems that can lead to conflicts are documented in the literature. While these three findings suggest clear links between conflict and climate, we find that (iv) current peace indices do not include climate and food systems indicators and therefore provide an uncomplete picture, and (v) food systems programming for climate adaptation has so far not explicitly considered peace and security outcomes. Furthermore, we propose that food systems programming that truly tackles the climate crisis should take more explicit account of peace and security outcomes in conflict-affected areas.

Type
Climate Change
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the ICRC.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Christian Almer and Stefan Boes, “Climate (Change) and Conflict: Resolving a Puzzle of Association and Causation”, SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012.

2 Abrahams, Daniel and Carr, Edward R., “Understanding the Connections Between Climate Change and Conflict: Contributions from Geography and Political Ecology”, Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2017CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Benjaminsen, Tor A. et al. , “Does Climate Change Drive Land-use Conflicts in the Sahel?”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49, No. 1, 2012CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Theisen, Ole Magnus, Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Buhaug, Halvard, “Is Climate Change a Driver of Armed Conflict?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 117, No. 3, 2013CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Katharine J. Mach et al., “Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict”, Nature, Vol. 571, 2019; Burke, Marshall B. et al. , “Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa”, PNAS, Vol. 106, No. 49, 2009Google Scholar.

3 Raleigh, Clionadh and Urdal, Henrik, “Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict”, Political Geography, Vol. 26, No. 6, 2007CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

4 Seter, Hanne, Theisen, Ole Magnus and Schilling, Janpeter, “All About Water and Land? Resource-Related Conflicts in East and West Africa Revisited”, GeoJournal, Vol. 83, No. 1, 2018CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Nam Nguyen, Diego Osorio and Peter Läderach, “Policy Note 1: The Role of Climate and Food Systems Science in Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding”, CGIAR Climate Security Webinar Series, August 2020, available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110941 (all internet references were accessed in April 2022); Sadoff, Claudia W., Borgomeo, Edoardo and de Waal, Dominick, Turbulent Waters: Pursuing Water Security in Fragile Contexts, Report, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Butler, Christopher K. and Gates, Scott, “African Range Wars: Climate, Conflict, and Property Rights”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49, No. 1, 2012CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Uexkull, Nina von et al. , “Civil Conflict Sensitivity to Growing-Season Drought”, PNAS, Vol. 113, No. 44, 2016Google Scholar; Buhaug, Halvard et al. , “Climate Variability, Food Production Shocks, and Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, No. 12, 2015CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

6 H. Seter, O. M. Theisen and J. Schilling, above note 4, p. 2; Nam Nguyen et al., “Policy Note 4: Climate Security in the Sahel”, CGIAR Climate Security Webinar Series, November 2020, available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110944.

7 United Nations Security Council, Chair's Summary of the Open Debate of the Security Council Held on 25 January 2019 on the Subject “Addressing the Impacts of Climate-Related Disasters on International Peace and Security”, UN Doc. S/2019/113, 7 February 2019.

8 White House Briefing Room, “Remarks by President Biden Before Signing Executive Actions on Tackling Climate Change, Creating Jobs, and Restoring Scientific Integrity”, Speeches and Remarks, 27 January 2021, available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/01/27/remarks-by-president-biden-before-signing-executive-actions-on-tackling-climate-change-creating-jobs-and-restoring-scientific-integrity/.

9 Clionadh Raleigh et al., “Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset: Special Data Feature”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 47, No. 5, 2010.

10 Ana Maria Loboguerrero et al., “Perspective Article: Actions to Reconfigure Food Systems”, Global Food Security, Vol. 26, 2020.

11 Läderach, Peter et al. , “Food Systems for Peace and Security in a Climate Crisis”, The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol. 5, No. 5, 2021Google Scholar.

12 H. Buhaug et al., above note 5.

13 Bingying Liu, “Why the Climate Crisis is a Humanitarian Emergency”, OCHA Exposure, 27 January 2021, available at: https://unocha.exposure.co/why-the-climate-crisis-is-a-humanitarian-emergency.

14 Florian Krampe, Climate Change, Peacebuilding, and Sustaining Peace, Policy Brief, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Stockholm, 2019; Krampe, Florian and Mobjörk, Malin, “Responding to Climate-Related Security Risks: Reviewing Regional Organizations in Asia and Africa”, Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2018CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

15 Tarek Ghani and Robert Malley, “Climate Change Doesn't Have to Stoke Conflict”, Foreign Affairs, 28 September 2020, available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ethiopia/2020-09-28/climate-change-doesnt-have-stoke-conflict.

16 Freeman, Laura, “Environmental Change, Migration, and Conflict in Africa: A Critical Examination of the Interconnections”, Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 26, No. 4, 2017CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

17 OECD, State of Fragility 2020, Report, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020; Marie Trémolières, Olivier J. Walther and Steven M. Radil, The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa, Report, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020.

18 Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich et al. , “Armed-Conflict Risks Enhanced by Climate-Related Disasters in Ethnically Fractionalised Countries”, PNAS, Vol. 113, No. 33, 2016CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

19 K. J. Mach et al., above note 2, p. 2; M. B. Burke et al., above note 2, p. 2.

20 M. Trémolières, O. J. Walther and S. M. Radil, above note 17.

21 Epule Epule et al., “The Causes, Effects and Challenges of Sahelian Droughts: A Critical Review”, Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2014.

22 N. von Uexkull et al., above note 5, p. 2.

23 M. B. Burke et al., above note 2, p. 2.

24 Rahimi, Jaber et al. , “Will Dairy Cattle Production in West Africa be Challenged by Heat Stress in the Future?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 161, No. 4, 2020CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

25 Raymond, Colin, Matthews, Tom and Horton, Radley M., “The Emergence of Heat and Humidity Too Severe for Human Tolerance”, Science Advances, Vol. 6, No. 19, 2020CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Napoli, Claudia Di et al. , “ERA5-HEAT: A Global Gridded Historical Dataset of Human Thermal Comfort Indices from Climate Reanalysis”, Geoscience Data Journal, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2021CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

26 Jones, Peter G. and Thornton, Philip K., “Croppers to Livestock Keepers: Livelihood Transitions to 2050 in Africa due to Climate Change”, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 12, No. 4, 2009CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

27 Tomislav Hengl et al., “SoilGrids1km — Global Soil Information Based on Automated Mapping”, PLoS One, Vol. 9, 2014.

28 Carlos Navarro-Racines et al., “High-Resolution and Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Projections for Climate Change Impact Assessments”, Scientific Data, Vol. 7, 2020.

29 Chris Funk et al., “The Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations—A New Environmental Record for Monitoring Extremes”, Scientific Data, Vol. 2, 2015.

30 Chris Funk et al., “A High-Resolution 1983-2016 T max Climate Data Record Based on Infrared Temperatures and Stations by the Climate Hazard Center”, Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, No. 17, 2019.

31 Liangzhi You et al., Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) 2010 v. 1.0, Dataset, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Washington, DC, 2014.

32 Marius Gilbert et al., Global Cattle Distribution in 2010 (5 Minutes of Arc), Dataset, Université Libre de Bruxelles/Food and Agriculture Organization, 2018; Marius Gilbert et al., “Global Distribution Data for Cattle, Buffaloes, Horses, Sheep, Goats, Pigs, Chickens and Ducks in 2010”, Scientific Data, Vol. 5, 2018.

33 You, Liangzhi et al. , “What is the Irrigation Potential for Africa? A Combined Biophysical and Socioeconomic Approach”, Food Policy, Vol. 36, No. 6, 2011CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Xie, Hua et al. , “Can Sub-Saharan Africa Feed Itself? The Role of Irrigation Development in the Region's Drylands for Food Security”, Water International, Vol. 43, No. 6, 2018CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

34 Rojas, Oscar, Vrieling, Anton and Rembold, Felix, “Assessing Drought Probability for Agricultural Areas in Africa with Coarse Resolution Remote Sensing Imagery”, Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 115, No. 2, 2011CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kim, Wonsik, Iizumi, Toshichika and Nishimori, Motoki, “Global Patterns of Crop Production Losses Associated with Droughts from 1983 to 2009”, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 58, No. 6, 2019CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

35 Parkes, B., Challinor, A. and Nicklin, K., “Crop Failure Rates in a Geoengineered Climate: Impact of Climate Change and Marine Cloud Brightening”, Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, No. 8, 2015CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

36 Edmar I. Teixeira et al., “Global Hot-Spots of Heat Stress on Agricultural Crops due to Climate Change”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 170, 2013; Gourdji, Sharon M., Sibley, Adam M. and Lobell, David B., “Global Crop Exposure to Critical High Temperatures in the Reproductive Period: Historical Trends and Future Projections”, Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2013CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

37 Emily Boyd et al., “Building Resilience to Face Recurring Environmental Crisis in African Sahel”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, 2013.

38 Reardon, Thomas, Matlon, Peter and Delgado, Christopher, “Coping with Household-Level Food Insecurity in Drought-Affected Areas of Burkina Faso”, World Development, Vol. 16, No. 9, 1988CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Mortimore, Michael J. and Adams, William M., “Farmer Adaptation, Change and ‘Crisis’ in the Sahel”, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2001CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

39 H. Buhaug et al., above note 5, p. 2.

40 Hanne Seter, “Connecting Climate Variability and Conflict: Implications for Empirical Testing”, Political Geography, Vol. 53, 2016.

41 John O'Loughlin et al., “Climate Variability and Conflict Risk in East Africa, 1990–2009”, PNAS, Vol. 109, No. 45, 2012.

42 C. Raleigh et al., above note 9.

43 Homer-Dixon, Thomas F., “Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases”, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1994Google Scholar; Vally Koubi, “Climate Change and Conflict”, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 22, 2019; Raleigh, Clionadh and Kniveton, Dominic, “Come Rain or Shine: An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability in East Africa”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49, No. 1, 2012CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

44 Barnett, Jon and Adger, W. Neil, “Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict”, Political Geography, Vol. 26, No. 6, 2007CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Raleigh, Clionadh, Linke, Andrew and O'Loughlin, John, “Extreme Temperatures and Violence”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2014CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

45 Hendrix, Cullen and Brinkman, Henk-Jan, “Food Insecurity and Conflict Dynamics: Causal Linkages and Complex Feedbacks”, International Journal of Security & Development, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2013Google Scholar; Charles P. Martin-Shields and Wolfgang Stojetz, “Food Security and Conflict: Empirical Challenges and Future Opportunities for Research and Policymaking on Food Security and Conflict”, World Development, Vol. 119, 2019; Clionadh Raleigh, Hyun Choi and Dominic Kniveton, “The Devil is in the Details: An Investigation of the Relationships between Conflict, Food Price and Climate Across Africa”, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 32, 2015.

46 V. Koubi, above note 43, p. 11; Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shanker and Sergenti, Ernest, “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 112, No. 4, 2004CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

47 Jürgen Scheffran et al., “Climate Change and Violent Conflict”, Science, Vol. 336, No. 6083, 2012.

48 , Eresto Dal and , Pedro Dal, “Workers, Warriors, and Criminals: Social Conflict in General Equilibrium”, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 9, No. 4, 2011Google Scholar.

49 V. Koubi, above note 43, p. 11; Jean-Maystadt, François and Ecker, Olivier, “Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 96, No. 4, 2014CrossRefGoogle Scholar; C. Raleigh, A. Linke and J. O'Loughlin, above note 44, p. 11.

50 Brzoska, Michael and Fröhlich, Christiane, “Climate Change, Migration and Violent Conflict: Vulnerabilities, Pathways and Adaptation Strategies”, Migration and Development, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2016CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Reuveny, Rafael, “Climate Change-induced Migration and Violent Conflict”, Political Geography, Vol. 26, No. 6, 2007CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

51 Ahmadou Aly Mbaye, “Climate Change, Livelihoods, and Conflict in the Sahel”, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 21, 2020.

52 C. Raleigh and D. Kniveton, above note 43, p. 11.

53 Hanne Fjelde and Nina von Uexkull, “Climate Triggers: Rainfall Anomalies, Vulnerability and Communal Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Political Geography, Vol. 31, No. 7, 2012; Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan, Climate Shocks and Political Violence: Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, 2012; C. Raleigh and D. Kniveton, above note 43, p. 11.

54 Tamela Knight, “Climate Change and Violent Conflicts”, Peace Review, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2013.

55 Jeffrey McNeely, “Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Conflict: A Contribution to the Ecology of Warfare”, in Gary Machlis, Thor Hanson, Dravko Špirić and Jean McKendry (eds), Warfare, Springer, Dordrecht, 2011.

56 Ashok Swain, “Challenges for Water Sharing in the Nile Basin: Changing Geo-Politics and Changing Climate”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 56, No. 4, 2011.

57 J. McNeely, above note 55, p. 13; Tor A. Benjaminsen, “Does Supply-induced Scarcity Drive Violent Conflicts in the African Sahel? The Case of the Tuareg Rebellion in Northern Mali”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 45, No. 6, 2008.

58 T. A. Benjaminsen et al., above note 2, p. 2.

59 Tor A. Benjaminsen and Boubacar Ba, “Farmer–Herder Conflicts, Pastoral Marginalisation and Corruption: A Case Study from the Inland Niger Delta of Mali”, The Geographical Journal, Vol. 175, No. 1, 2009; Tor Arve Benjaminsen, Faustin P. Maganga and Jumanne Moshi Abdallah, “The Kilosa Killings: Political Ecology of a Farmer–Herder Conflict in Tanzania”, Development and Change, Vol. 40, No. 3, 2009; Angelo Bonfiglioli and Carol Watson, Pastoralists at a Crossroads: Survival and Development Issues in African Pastoralism, Report, NOPA, Nairobi, 1992; Ced Hesse and James MacGregor, Pastoralism: Drylands’ Invisible Asset? Developing a Framework for Assessing the Value of Pastoralism in East Africa, Issue Paper No. 142, IIED, London, 2006.

60 Valentine Asong Tellen, Juliana Adjem Anchang and Martin Shu, Conflicts Over Land and Pasture in North West Cameroon: Listening to the Voices of Farmers and Grazers, Working Report, Pan African Institute for Development – West Africa (PAID-WA), Buea, Cameroon, 2016.

61 Ibid., p. 13.

62 Richard Mbih, “The Politics of Farmer–Herder Conflicts and Alternative Conflict Management in Northwest Cameroon”, African Geographical Review, Vol. 39, No. 4, 2020.

63 Ibid., p. 14.

64 IEP, Global Peace Index 2020: Measuring Peace in a Complex World, IEP, Sydney, June 2020, available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GPI_2020_web.pdf.

65 Ibid., p. 54.

68 IEP, Global Peace Index 2019: Measuring Peace in a Complex World, IEP, Sydney, June 2019, p. 3, available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GPI-2019web.pdf.

69 Ibid., p. 15.

70 Ibid.

71 IEP, Ecological Threat Register 2020: Understanding Ecological Threats, Resilience and Peace, IEP, Sydney, September 2020.

72 Edward D. Lee et al., “Scaling Theory of Armed Conflict Avalanches”, Physical Review E, Vol. 102, No. 4, 2020.

73 Institute for Economics & Peace, Global Peace Index 2021: Measuring Peace in a Complex World, Sydney, June 2021, available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/GPI-2021-web-1.pdf.

74 Institute for Economics & Peace, Positive Peace Report 2022: Analysing the Factors that Build, Predict and Sustain Peace, Sydney, January 2022, available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/PPR-2022-web-1.pdf.

76 Institute for Economics & Peace, Positive Peace Report 2019: Analysing the Factors that Sustain Peace, Sydney, October 2019, available at: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/PPR-2019-web.pdf.

78 Philip G. Pardey et al., “Returns to Food and Agricultural R&D Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1975–2014”, Food Policy, Vol. 65, 2016.

79 Julian M. Alston, Philip G. Pardey and Xudong Rao, The Payoff to Investing in CGIAR Research, Report, SoAR Foundation, Arlington, VA, October 2020, available at: https://supportagresearch.org/assets/pdf/Payoff_to_Investing_in_CGIAR_Research_final_October_2020.pdf.

80 P. G. Pardey et al., above note 78.

81 Julian Ramirez-Villegas et al., “CGIAR Modeling Approaches for Resource-constrained Scenarios: I. Accelerating Crop Breeding for a Changing Climate”, Crop Science, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2020.

82 Arun Khatri-Chhetri et al., “Farmers’ Prioritization of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Technologies”, Agricultural Systems, Vol. 151, 2017; Nadine Andrieu et al., “Ex Ante Mapping of Favorable Zones for Uptake of Climate-Smart Agricultural Practices: A Case Study in West Africa”, Environmental Development, 2020, available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2020.100566.

83 Catherine Vaughan et al., “Evaluating Agricultural Weather and Climate Services in Africa: Evidence, Methods, and a Learning Agenda”, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 10, No. 9, 2019; Steven Sotelo et al., “Pronosticos AClimateColombia: A System for the Provision of Information for Climate Risk Reduction in Colombia”, Computer and Electronics in Agriculture, Vol. 174, 2020.

84 James W. Hansen et al., “Climate Services Can Support African Farmers’ Context-Specific Adaptation Needs at Scale”, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Vol. 3, 2019.

85 Charles Odhong et al., “Financing Large-Scale Mitigation by Smallholder Farmers: What Roles for Public Climate Finance?”, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Vol. 3, 2019.

86 Peter Stamp and Richard Visser, “The Twenty-First Century, the Century of Plant Breeding”, Euphytica, Vol. 186, 2012; R. E. Evenson and D. Gollin, “Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000”, Science, Vol. 300, No. 5620, 2003.

87 Alessandra Garbero, Pierre Marion and Valentina Brailovskaya, The Impact of the Adoption of CGIAR's Improved Varieties on Poverty and Welfare Outcomes: A Systematic Review, IFAD Research Series 33, IFAD, 2018, available at: https://www.ifad.org/documents/38714170/40951886/Research+Series+33.pdf/4b08b329-8f1c-2920-bce8-fba1a7a76593.

88 J. Ramirez-Villegas et al., above note 81, p. 19; A. J. Challinor et al., “Current Warming Will Reduce Yields Unless Maize Breeding and Seed Systems Adapt Immediately”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, 2016.

89 J. Ramirez-Villegas et al., above note 81, p. 19.

90 Maricelis Avecedo et al., “A Scoping Review of Adoption of Climate Resilient Crops by Small-Scale Producers in Low- and Middle-Income Countries”, Nature Plants, Vol. 6, 2020.

91 Roberto La Rovere et al., Potential Impact of Investments in Drought Tolerant Maize in Africa, CIMMYT/International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Addis Ababa, 2010.

92 Maximina A. Lantican et al., Impacts of International Wheat Improvement Research, 1994–2014, Technical Report, CIMMYT, Mexico, 2016; D. P. Hodson et al., “Ethiopia's Transforming Wheat Landscape: Tracking Variety Use Through DNA Fingerprinting”, Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2020.

93 Melinda Smale et al., “Farm Family Effects of Adopting Improved and Hybrid Sorghum Seed in the Sudan Savanna of West Africa”, Food Policy, Vol. 74, 2018; B. I. G. Haussmann et al., “Breeding Strategies for Adaptation of Pearl Millet and Sorghum to Climate Variability and Change in West Africa”, Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, Vol. 198, No. 5, 2012.

94 Thomas S. Walker and Jeffrey Alwang (eds), Crop Improvement, Adoption, and Impact of Improved Varieties in Food Crops in Sub-Saharan Africa, CGIAR and CAB International, Oxford, 2015.

95 Mathieu Ouédraogo et al., “Uptake of Climate-Smart Agricultural Technologies and Practices: Actual and Potential Adoption Rates in the Climate-Smart Village Site of Mali”, Sustainability, Vol. 11, No. 17, 2019.

96 Arega Alene et al., “Measuring the Effectiveness of Agricultural R&D in Sub-Saharan Africa from the Perspectives of Varietal Output and Adoption: Initial Results from the Diffusion and Impact of Improved Varieties in Africa (DIIVA) Project”, Conference Working Paper 7, 2011; T. S. Walker and J. Alwang, above note 94, p. 21.

97 A. J. Challinor et al., above note 88, p. 20.

98 M. Avecedo et al., above note 90, p. 21.

99 C. Hendrix and I. Salehyan, above note 53, p. 12.

100 Colin H. Kahl, States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2006.

101 Leslie Lipper et al., “Climate-Smart Agriculture for Food Security”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, 2014.

102 Christine Lamanna et al., Evidence-Based Opportunities for Out-Scaling Climate-Smart Agriculture in East Africa, CCAFS Working Paper No. 172, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, 2016; Nadine Andrieu et al., “Climate-Smart Farms? Case Studies in Burkino Faso and Colombia”, in Miguel Pedrono et al. (eds), Climate Change and Agriculture Worldwide, Springer, Dordrecht, 2016; Laura N. Arenas-Calle, Stephen Whitfield and Andrew J. Challinor, “A Climate Smartness Index (CSI) Based on Greenhouse Gas Intensity and Water Productivity: Application to Irrigated Rice”, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Vol. 3, 2019.

103 Todd S. Rosenstock et al., The Scientific Basis of Climate-Smart Agriculture: A Systematic Review Protocol, CCAFS Working Paper No. 138, CCAFS, Copenhagen, 2016.

104 Mathieu Ouédraogo et al., Uptake of Climate-Smart Agriculture in West Africa: What can we learn from Climate-Smart Villages of Ghana, Mali and Niger? Info Note, CCAFS, Wageningen, 2018; Pramod K. Aggarwal et al., “The Climate-Smart Village Approach: Framework of an Integrative Strategy for Scaling up Adaptation Options in Agriculture”, Ecology and Society, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2018; Minjie Chen et al., “Diversification and Intensification of Agricultural Adaptation from Global to Local Scales”, PLoS ONE, Vol. 13, No. 5, 2018; Krisha Lim et al., “Impacts of Smallholder Agricultural Adaptation on Food Security: Evidence from Africa, Asia, and Central America”, Food Security, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2020.

105 P. K. Aggarwal et al., ibid., p. 22; L. Lipper et al., above note 101, p. 22.

106 Reinhard Prestele and Peter H. Verburg, “The Overlooked Spatial Dimension of Climate-Smart Agriculture”, Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, No. 3, 2020; N. Andrieu et al., above note 82, p. 20.

107 Samuel T. Partey et al., “Developing Climate-Smart Agriculture to Face Climate Variability in West Africa: Challenges and Lessons Learnt”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 187, 2018.

108 M. Ouédraogo et al., above note 104, p. 22.

109 V. Koubi, above note 43, p. 11; J.-F. Maystadt and O. Ecker, above note 49, p. 12; C. Raleigh, H. Choi and D. Kniveton, above note 45, p. 11.

110 J. W. Hansen et al., above note 84, p. 20; C. Vaughan et al., above note 83, p. 20.

111 Edward R. Carr et al., Identifying Climate Information Services Users and Their Needs in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Learning Agenda, Report, United States Agency for International Development, October 2017, available at: http://www.edwardrcarr.com/downloads/Carr%20et%20al.%20-%202017%20-%20Identifying%20Climate%20Information%20Services%20Users%20and%20Their%20Needs%20in%20Sub-Saharan%20Africa%20A%20Learning%20Agenda.pdf; Catherine Vaughan et al., “Identifying Research Priorities to Advance Climate Services”, Climate Services, Vol. 4, 2016; Catherine Vaughan and Suraje Dessai, “Climate Services for Society: Origins, Institutional Arrangements, and Design Elements for an Evaluation Framework”, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 5, 2014.

112 Catherine Vaughan et al., “Creating an Enabling Environment for Investment in Climate Services: The Case of Uruguay's National Agricultural Information System”, Climate Services, Vol. 8, 2017.

113 M. Avecedo et al., above note 90, p. 21.

114 Regina Birner et al., “From Best Practice to Best Fit: A Framework for Designing and Analyzing Pluralistic Agricultural Advisory Services Worldwide”, Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension, Vol. 14, No. 4, 2009; Guy Faure, Yann Desjeux and Pierre Gasselin, “New Challenges in Agricultural Advisory Services from a Research Perspective: A Literature Review, Synthesis and Research Agenda”, Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension, Vol. 18, No. 5, 2012.

115 Anthony G. Barnston et al., “Verification of the First 11 Years of IRI's Seasonal Climate Forecasts”, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 49, No. 3, 2010.

116 M. Ouédraogo et al., above note 104, p. 22; Mathieu Ouédraogo et al., “Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Climate Information Services: Evidence from Cowpea and Sesame Producers in Northern Burkina Faso”, Sustainability, Vol. 10, No. 3, 2018.

117 M. Ouédraogo et al., above note 104, p. 22; M. Ouédraogo, ibid., p. 26; Djibril S. Dayamba et al., “Assessment of the Use of Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) Approach by Farmers to Manage Climate Risk in Mali and Senegal”, Climate Services, Vol. 12, 2018.

118 T. S. Rosenstock et al., above note 103; J. W. Hansen et al., above note 84, p. 20.

119 Brian Chiputwa et al., “Transforming Climate Science into Usable Services: The Effectiveness of Co-Production in Promoting Uptake of Climate Information by Smallholder Farmers in Senegal”, Climate Services, Vol. 20, 2020.

120 Usman Pakasi, “Conflict in the Border Region between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea”, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Ethics in Governance (ICONEG 2016), Atlantis Press, 2016.

121 ACRE, Fact Sheet on Kilimo Salama “Safe Agriculture”, Syngenta Foundation, 2014.

122 Shawn Cole et al., The Effectiveness of Index-Based Micro-Insurance in Helping Smallholders Manage Weather-Related Risks, Report, EPPI-Centre, London, 2012, available at: https://www.biopasos.com/biblioteca/105v%20MicroinsuranceWeather2012ColeReport.pdf.

123 Samuel Mintz, “Insurance Designed for Muslim Herders Makes First Payout in Kenya”, IBLI News, 1 May 2014, available at: https://ibli.ilri.org/2014/05/01/insurance-designed-for-muslim-herders-makes-first-payout-in-kenya/.

124 Bob, Urmilla and Bronkhorst, Salome, Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa, BWV Verlag, Berlin, 2014Google Scholar.

125 Maystadt, Jean-Francois, Calderone, Margherita and You, Liangzhi, “Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan”, Journal of Economic Geography, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2014Google Scholar.

126 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), SDG Investment Trends Monitor, 2019, available at: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/diaemisc2019d4_en.pdf.

127 OECD/United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), Blended Finance in the Least Developed Countries 2019, Report, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2019.

128 Dinesh, Dhanush et al. , “Facilitating Change for Climate-Smart Agriculture through Science-Policy Engagement”, Sustainability, Vol. 10, No. 8, 2018CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

129 Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture (GACSA), Regional CSA Alliances and Platforms: Information Sheet: The Africa CSA Alliance (ACSAA) and the NEPAD-iNGO Alliance on CSA. GACSA, Rome, 2016.

130 GACSA, ibid., p. 29.

131 Zougmoré, Robert B. et al. , “Science-Policy Interfaces for Sustainable Climate-Smart Agricultural Uptake: Lessons Learnt from National Science-Policy Dialogue Platforms in West Africa”, International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, Vol. 17, No. 5, 2019CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

132 Le Nghiem et al., The Business Advantage: Mobilizing Private Sector-led Climate Actions in Agriculture, IFAD Advantage Series, IFAD, Rome, 2018.

133 J. Alston, P. Pardey and X. Rao, above note 79, p. 19.

134 Bia Carnero et al., A Web Analytics Approach to Map the Influence and Reach of CCAFS, Working Paper No. 326, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), 2020.

135 Theresa Liebig et al., CGIAR's Contribution to Peace: Portfolio Analysis, CGIAR Focus Climate Security Report, CCAFS, April 2020.

136 U. Pakasi, above note 120, p. 27.

137 U. Bob and S. Bronkhorst, above note 124, p. 28.

138 J.-F. Maystadt, M. Calderone and L. You, above note 125, p. 28.

139 C. Hendrix and I. Salehyan, above note 53, p. 12.

140 C. H. Kahl, above note 100, p. 22.

141 J. Ramirez-Villegas et al., above note 81, p. 19; A. J. Challinor et al., above note 88, p. 20.

142 V. Koubi, above note 43, p. 11; J.-F. Maystadt and O. Ecker, above note 49, p. 12; C. Raleigh, H. Choi and D. Kniveton, above note 45, p. 11.

143 UNCTAD, above note 126, p. 28.

144 L. Nghiem, above note 132.