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Effects of Screening Errors and Differential Mortality on the Estimation of the Incidence of Dementia in the Canadian Study of Health and Aging

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 January 2005

Gerry Hill ,
Ian MacNeill ,
Richard Aylesworth ,
Ian McDowell ,
William Forbes  and
Jean Kozak
Gerry Hill
Affiliation:
Canadian Study of Health and Aging, University of Ottawa Sisters of Charity of Ottawa Health Services
Ian MacNeill
Affiliation:
University of Western Ontario.
Richard Aylesworth
Affiliation:
Canadian Study of Health and Aging, University of Ottawa
Ian McDowell
Affiliation:
Canadian Study of Health and Aging, University of Ottawa
William Forbes
Affiliation:
Sisters of Charity of Ottawa Health Services
Jean Kozak
Affiliation:
Sisters of Charity of Ottawa Health Services
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Abstract

The Canadian Study of Health and Aging produced an estimate of the incidence of dementia among elderly Canadians by following up, after 5 years, the undemented found in an initial prevalence survey. Initial and follow-up estimates could be biased by false-negative error in the screening tool used for subjects living in the community, and by erroneous classification of subjects who died in the interim. Here, we use a deterministic model to quantify those possible biases. We conclude that, using the estimates of the errors from control samples, the incidence among community subjects would be overestimated by 15%, and the incidence among the institutional subjects would be underestimated by 37%. The overall incidence would be underestimated by 14%. Most of the bias can be attributed to inaccuracies in the classification of deaths.

Type
DERIVED VARIABLES FOR THE CSHA
Information
International Psychogeriatrics , Volume 13 , Issue S1 , February 2001 , pp. 143 - 146
Copyright
© 2001 International Psychogeriatric Association

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