Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T18:03:57.741Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Talking While Fighting: Understanding the Role of Wartime Negotiation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2020

Eric Min Open the ORCID record for Eric Min [Opens in a new window]
Get access

Abstract

Contemporary studies of conflict have adopted approaches that minimize the importance of negotiation during war or treat it as a constant and mechanical activity. This is strongly related to the lack of systematic data that track and illustrate the complex nature of wartime diplomacy. I address these issues by creating and exploring a new daily-level data set of negotiations in all interstate wars from 1816 to the present. I find strong indications that post-1945 wars feature more frequent negotiations and that these negotiations are far less predictive of war termination. Evidence suggests that increased international pressures for peace and stability after World War II, especially emanating from nuclear weapons and international alliances, account for this trend. These original data and insights establish a dynamic research agenda that enables a more policy-relevant study of conflict management, highlights a historical angle to conflict resolution, and speaks to the utility of viewing diplomacy as an essential dimension to understanding war.

Keywords

Warinterstate warconflictdiplomacybargainingnegotiationmediationwar durationwar terminationnuclear weaponsallianceslaws of war1945
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 3 , Summer 2020 , pp. 610 - 632
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Admati, Anat R., and Perry, Motty. 1987. Strategic Delay in Bargaining. Review of Economic Studies 54 (3):345–64.10.2307/2297563CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan C.. 1996. The Duration of Interstate Wars, 1816–1985. American Political Science Review 90 (2):239–57.10.2307/2082882CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bercovitch, Jacob. 1999. International Conflict Management 1945–1995: Official Codebook for the International Conflict Management Dataset. University of Canterbury.Google Scholar
Carter, David B., and Goemans, Hein E.. 2011. The Making of the Territorial Order: New Borders and the Emergence of Interstate Conflict. International Organization 65 (2):275–309.10.1017/S0020818311000051CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corbetta, Renato, and Dixon, William J.. 2005. Danger Beyond Dyads: Third Party Participants in Interstate Disputes. Conflict Management and Peace Science 22 (1):39–61.10.1080/07388940590915318CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dreher, Axel, Sturm, Jan-Egbert, and Vreeland, James. 2009. Development Aid and International Politics: Does Membersip in the UN Security Council Influence World Bank Decisions? Journal of Development Economics 88 (1):1–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fang, Songying, Johnson, Jesse C., and Leeds, Brett Ashley. 2014. To Concede or to Resist? The Restraining Effect of Military Alliances. International Organization 68 (4):775–809.10.1017/S0020818314000137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2007. State Death: The Politics and Geography of Conquest, Annexation, and Occupation. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2012. Why States No Longer Declare War. Security Studies 21 (4):557–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2013. The Demise of Peace Treaties in Interstate War. International Organization 67 (4):695–724.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2018. Wars of Law: Unintended Consequences in the Regulation of Armed Conflict. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filson, Darren, and Werner, Suzanne. 2002. A Bargaining Model of War and Peace: Anticipating the Onset, Duration, and Outcome of War. American Journal of Political Science 46 (4):819–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finnemore, Martha. 2003. The Purpose of Intervention: Changing Beliefs About the Use of Force. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Fortna, Virginia P. 2009. Where Have All the Victories Gone? Peacekeeping and War Outcomes. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto.Google Scholar
Gartzke, Erik A., and Poast, Paul. 2018. Empirically Assessing the Bargaining Theory of War: Potential and Challenges. In The Oxford Encyclopedia or Empirical International Relations Theory, edited by Thompson, William R., 755–68. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary, Diehl, Paul F., and Balas, Alexandru. 2016. The Puzzle of Peace: The Evolution of Peace in the International System. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Halperin, Morton H. 1961. Nuclear Weapons and Limited War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 5 (2):146–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermes, Walter G. 1966. Truce Tent and Fighting Front. Office of the Chief of Military History, United States Army.Google Scholar
Herring, George C. 1983. The Secret Diplomacy of the Vietnam War: The Negotiating Volumes of the Pentagon Papers. University of Texas Press.Google Scholar
Holsti, Kalevi J. 1991. Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and International Order 1648–1989. Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511628290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howard, Lise Morjé, and Stark, Alexandra. 2017/18. How Civil Wars End: The International System, Norms, and the Role of External Actors. International Security 42 (3):127–71.10.1162/ISEC_a_00305CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iklé, Fred C. 1964. How Nations Negotiate. Praeger.Google Scholar
Jo, Dong-Joon, and Gartzke, Erik. 2007. Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: A Quantitative Model. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (1):167–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langlois, Catherine C., and Langlois, Jean-Pierre P.. 2009. Does Attrition Behavior Help Explain the Duration of Interstate Wars? A Game Theoretic and Empirical Analysis. International Studies Quarterly 53 (4):1051–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leventoğlu, Bahar, and Slantchev, Branislav L.. 2007. The Armed Peace: A Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of War. American Journal of Political Science 51 (4):755–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mastro, Oriana S. 2019. The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime. Cornell University Press.10.7591/9781501732218CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mattes, Michaela, and Savun, Burcu. 2010. Information, Agreement Design, and the Durability of Civil War Settlements. American Journal of Political Science 54 (2):511–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John. 2004. The Remnants of War. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Pevehouse, Jon C., Nordstrom, Timothy, and Warnke, Kevin. 2004. The COW-2 International Organizations Dataset, Version 2.0. Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2):101–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pillar, Paul R. 1983. Negotiating Peace: War Termination as a Bargaining Process. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2017. Taking Sides in Wars of Attrition. American Political Science Review 111 (2):219–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Regan, Patrick M., Frank, Richard W., and Aydin, Aysegul. 2009. Diplomatic Interventions and Civil War: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 46 (1):135–46.10.1177/0022343308098408CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shannon, Megan. 2009. Preventing War and Providing the Peace? Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (2):144–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shirkey, Zachary C., and Weisiger, Alex. 2012. An Annotated Bibliography for the Correlates of Interstate Wars Database. Manuscript, CUNY Hunter College and Colombia University.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A. 2002. Capacity, Commitment, and Compliance. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (6):829–56.10.1177/002200202237931CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav. 2003. The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations. American Political Science Review 97 (4):621–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1969. Formal Alliances, 1815–1965: An Extension of the Basic Data. Journal of Peace Research 6 (3):257–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair, and Stam, Allan C.. 2004. Bargaining and the Nature of War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (6):783–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stinnett, Douglas M., Tir, Jaroslav, Schafer, Philip, Diehl, Paul F., and Gochman, Charles. 2002. The Correlates of War Project Direct Contiguity Data, Version 3. Conflict Management and Peace Science 19 (2):58–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tannenwald, Nina. 2007. The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons Since 1945. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thatcher, Margaret. 1993. The Downing Street Years. HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica D. 2009. Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United Nations. 1945. Charter of the United Nations and Statute of the International Court of Justice. United Nations, Office of Public Information.Google Scholar
Von Stein, Jana. 2005. Do Treaties Constrain or Screen? Selection Bias and Treaty Compliance. American Political Science Review 99 (4):611–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2000. Bargaining and War. American Journal of Political Science 44 (3):469–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2009. Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weisiger, Alex. 2016. Learning from the Battlefield: Information, Domestic Politics, and Interstate War Duration. International Organization 70 (2):347–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Werner, Suzanne, and Yuen, Amy. 2005. Making and Keeping Peace. International Organization 59 (2):261–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zacher, Mark W. 2001. The Territorial Integrity Norm: International Boundaries and the Use of Force. International Organization 55 (2):215–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhu, Pingchao. 2001. Americans and Chinese at the Korean War Cease-Fire Negotiations, 1950–1953. Edwin Mellen Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Min Supplementary Materials

Min Supplementary Materials

Download Min Supplementary Materials(PDF)
PDF 273.5 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Min Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/T7PXKJ
Link