Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T15:07:46.841Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 July 2003

Get access

Abstract

In the wake of negotiated settlements to civil wars, one critical problem involves reassuring people who have been killing one another that conflict is not about to break out again, endangering people's lives. Those concerned with the success of negotiated settlements have debated how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace. We address this question by exploring variables that may explain the longevity of negotiated peace settlements. These variables are divided into two categories—one tapping into the potential effects of the environment in which settlements are negotiated and another focusing on the impact of settlement arrangements. On the basis of our analysis of thirty-eight civil war settlements negotiated between 1945 and 1998 we identify the environmental factors and institutional choices that affect the short-term stability of the peace following civil war.

Type
Research Note
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan N., and Tucker, Richard. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series Cross-section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4): 1260–88.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford S.. 1997. Time Is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science. American Journal of Political Science 41 (4):1414–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Siverson, Randolph M.. 1995. War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability. American Political Science Review 89 (4):841–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coakley, John. 1993. Introduction: The Territorial Management of Ethnic Conflict. In The Territorial Management of Ethnic Conflict, edited by Coakley, John, 122. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
de Jonge Oudraat, Chantal. 1996. The United Nations and Internal Conflict. In The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, edited by Brown, Michael E., 489535. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 1993. Three Paradoxes of Democracy. In The Global Resurgence of Democracy, edited by Diamond, Larry and Plattner, Marc F., 95107. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 1996. Explaining Interethnic Cooperation. American Political Science Review 90 (4):715–35.Google Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 1998. Scraps of Paper? Agreements and the Durability of Peace. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif.Google Scholar
House, Freedom. 1999. Annual Survey of Freedom Country Scores 1972–73 to 1998–99. New York: Freedom House.Google Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark J. 1996. An Overview of the Political Regime Change Dataset. Comparative Political Studies 29 (4):469–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1990. Ethnic Warfare and the Changing Priorities of Global Security. Mediterranean Quarterly 1 (1):8298.Google Scholar
Hampson, Fen Osler. 1996. Nurturing Peace: Why Peace Settlements Succeed or Fail. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Hannum, Hurst. 1996. Autonomy, Sovereignty, and Self-Determination: The Accommodation of Conflicting Rights. Rev. ed. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Hardin, Russell. 1995. One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Harris, Peter, and Reilly, Ben, eds. 1998. Democracy and Deep-rooted Conflict: Options for Negotiators. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline A. 1999. Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (1):322.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, Mozaffar, Shaheen, and Rothchild, Donald. 1999. Negotiated Civil War Settlements and Post-conflict Governance: The Choice and Consequences of Institutional Design. Unpublished paper, Gettysburg College, Gettysburg, Penn.Google Scholar
Heintze, Hans-Joachim. 1997. Autonomy and Protection of Minorities Under International Law. In Federalism Against Ethnicity? Institutional, Legal, and Democratic Instruments to Prevent Violent Minority Conflicts, edited by Bachler, Gunther, 8192. Zurich: Verlag Ruegger.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1995. Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data. Journal of Peace Research 32 (4):469–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keesing's Contemporary Archives. Various years. Bath: Langman Group.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Chaim. 1996. Intervention in Ethnic and Ideological Civil Wars: Why One Can Be Done and the Other Can't. Security Studies 6 (1):62103.Google Scholar
Lake, David A., and Rothchild, Donald. 1996. Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security 21 (2):4175.Google Scholar
Lake, David A., and Rothchild, Donald. 1999. Political Decentralization and the Durability of Civil War Settlements. Paper presented at the IGCC Conference on Durable Peace Settlements, 7–8 May, La Jolla, Calif.Google Scholar
Lemarchand, René. 2000. The Crisis in the Great Lakes. In Africa in World Politics: The African State System in Flux, 3d ed., edited by Harbeson, John W. and Rothchild, Donald, 324–52. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Levine, Alicia. 1996. Political Accommodation and the Prevention of Secessionist Violence. In The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, edited by Brown, Michael E., 311–40. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Licklider, Roy. 1993. How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods. In Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, edited by Licklider, Roy, 319. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Licklider, Roy. 1995. The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993. American Political Science Review 89 (3):681–90.Google Scholar
Licklider, Roy. 1999. False Hopes? Democracy and the Resumption of Civil War. Unpublished paper, Rutgers University, Rutgers, N.J.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1985. Power-Sharing in South Africa. Berkeley: University of California, Institute of International Studies.Google Scholar
Mason, T. David, and Fett, Patrick J.. 1996. How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (4):546–68.Google Scholar
Mason, T. David, Weingarten, Joseph P. Jr and Fett, Patrick J.. 1999. Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars. Political Research Quarterly 52 (2):239–68.Google Scholar
Mozaffar, Shaheen. 1998. Electoral Systems and Conflict Management in Africa: A Twenty-eight-state Comparison. In Elections and Conflict Resolution in Africa, edited by Sisk, Timothy D. and Reynolds, Andrew, 8198. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Peceny, Mark, and Stanley, William. 2001. Liberal Social Reconstruction and the Resolution of Civil Wars in Central America. International Organization 55 (1):149–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rothchild, Donald. 1997. Managing Ethnic Conflict in Africa: Pressures and Incentives for Cooperation. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Rothchild, Donald, and Hartzell, Caroline. 1999. Security in Deeply Divided Societies: The Role of Territorial Autonomy. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 5 (3):254–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sisk, Timothy D. 1996. Power Sharing and International Mediation in Ethnic Conflicts. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1996. World Military and Social Expenditures, 1996. 16th ed. Washington, D.C.: World Priorities.Google Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.Google Scholar
Stedman, Stephen John. 1991. Peacemaking in Civil War: International Mediation in Zimbabwe, 1974–1980. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Various years. SIPRI Yearbook: World Armaments and Disarmaments. Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell.Google Scholar
Wallensteen, Peter, and Sollenberg, Margareta. 1997. Armed Conflicts, Conflict Termination and Peace Agreements, 1989–96. Journal of Peace Research 34 (3):339–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1997. The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51 (3):335–64.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1999. Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace. International Security 24 (1):127–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F., and Snyder, Jack, eds. 1999. Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Weiner, Myron. 1978. Sons of the Soil: Migration and Ethnic Conflict in India. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Weiner, Myron, and Katzenstein, Mary Fainsod with Rao, K. V. Narayana. 1981. India's Preferential Policies: Migrants, the Middle Classes, and Ethnic Equality. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Wilson, Jane S. 1992. Turmoil in Assam. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 15 (4):251–66.Google Scholar
Zartman, I. William, and Touval, Saadia. 1992. Mediation: The Role of Third-party Diplomacy and Informal Peacemaking. In Resolving Third World Conflict: Challenges for a New Era, edited by Brown, Sheryl J. and Schraub, Kimber M., 239–61. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar