Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-vdxz6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T21:30:40.172Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 July 2010

Matthew A. Baum  and
Tim Groeling
Matthew A. Baum
Affiliation:
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. E-mail: [email protected]
Tim Groeling
Affiliation:
University of California Los Angeles. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Prevailing theories hold that U.S. public support for a war depends primarily on its degree of success, U.S. casualties, or conflict goals. Yet, research into the framing of foreign policy shows that public perceptions concerning each of these factors are often endogenous and malleable by elites. In this article, we argue that both elite rhetoric and the situation on the ground in the conflict affect public opinion, but the qualities that make such information persuasive vary over time and with circumstances. Early in a conflict, elites (especially the president) have an informational advantage that renders public perceptions of “reality” very elastic. As events unfold and as the public gathers more information, this elasticity recedes, allowing alternative frames to challenge the administration's preferred frame. We predict that over time the marginal impact of elite rhetoric and reality will decrease, although a sustained change in events may eventually restore their influence. We test our argument through a content analysis of news coverage of the Iraq war from 2003 through 2007, an original survey of public attitudes regarding Iraq, and partially disaggregated data from more than 200 surveys of public opinion on the war.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 64 , Issue 3 , July 2010 , pp. 443 - 479
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Baum, Matthew A. 2002. The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon. International Studies Quarterly 46 (June):263–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. 2003. Soft News Goes to War: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy in the New Media Age. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. 2004a. Going Private: Presidential Rhetoric, Public Opinion, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):603–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. 2004b. How Public Opinion Constrains the Use of Force: The Case of Operation Restore Hope. Presidential Studies Quarterly 34 (2):187–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Potter, Philip B. K.. 2008. The Relationship Between Mass Media, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. Annual Review of Political Science 11:39–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Groeling, Tim. 2010. War Stories: The Causes and Consequences of Citizen Views of War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2007. Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict. Journal of Politics 69 (4):975–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boettcher, William A. III, and Cobb, Michael D.. 2006. Echoes of Vietnam: Causality Framing and Public Perceptions of Success and Failures in Iraq. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (6):831–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1991. Assessing Presidential Character: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1994. “Crisis, War and Public Opinion: The Media and Public Support for the President.” In LanceBennett, W. Bennett, W., and Paletz, David L.. Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A., and Shapiro, Catherine R.. 1989. Policy Failure and Public Support: The Iran-Contra Affair and Public Assessment of President Reagan. Political Behavior 11 (4):353–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and de Marchi, Scott. 2002. Presidential Approval and Legislative Success. Journal of Politics 64 (2):491–509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenberg, Richard. 2005. Victory Has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981–2005. International Security 30 (1):140–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feaver, Peter D., and Gelpi, Christopher. 2004. Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund. 2008. The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach. American Political Science Review 102 (1):95–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, Scott S., and Segura, Gary M.. 2000. Race, Casualties, and Opinion in the Vietnam War. Journal of Politics 62 (1):115–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher. 2009. Performing on Cue? The Formation of Public Opinion Toward War. Unpublished manuscript, Duke University, Durham, N.C.Google Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter D., and Reifler, Jason. 2009. Paying the Human Costs of War: American Public Opinion and Casualties in Military Conflicts. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Groeling, Tim. 2010. When Politicians Attack: Party Cohesion in the Media. Under contract to Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Groeling, Tim, and Baum, Matthew A.. 2008. Crossing the Water's Edge: Elite Rhetoric, Media Coverage and the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon. Journal of Politics 70 (4):1065–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, James T. 2003. All the News That's Fit to Sell: How the Market Transforms Information into News. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, David B. 1985. Viewer Characteristics and Agenda Setting by Television News. Public Opinion Quarterly 49 (3):340–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 2006. A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People. New York: Pearson Longman.Google Scholar
Jamieson, Kathleen Hall, and Waldman, Paul. 2003. The Press Effect: Politicians, Journalists, and the Stories that Shape the Political World. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Jentleson, Bruce W. 1992. The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force. International Studies Quarterly 36 (1):49–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Timothy R., and Roberts, Jason M.. 2004. Presidential Capital and the Supreme Court Confirmation Process. Journal of Politics 66 (3):663–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2):341–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Larson, Eric V. 1996. Casualties and Consensus: The Historical Role of Casualties in Domestic Support for U.S. Military Operations. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND.Google Scholar
Larson, Eric V. 2000. Putting Theory to Work: Diagnosing Public Opinion on the U.S. Intervention in Bosnia. In Being Useful: Policy Relevance and International Relations Theory, edited by Nincic, Miroslav and Lepgold, Joseph, 174–233. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, Harold, and Crespi, Irving. 1970. Polls, Television and the New Politics. Scranton, Pa.: Chandler.Google Scholar
Milstein, Jeffrey S. 1969. Changes in Domestic Support and Alternative Military Actions in the Vietnam War, 1965–1968. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Honolulu, Hawaii.Google Scholar
Milstein, Jeffrey S. 1973. The Vietnam War from the 1968 Tet Offensive to the 1970 Cambodian Invasion. In Mathematical Approaches to Politics, edited by Alker, Hayward R., Deutsch, Karl W., and Stoetzel, Antoine H., 113–36. New York: Elsevier.Google Scholar
Milstein, Jeffrey S. 1974. Dynamics of the Vietnam War: A Quantitative Analysis and Predictive Computer Simulation. Columbus: Ohio State University Press.Google Scholar
Milstein, Jeffrey S., and Mitchell, William C.. 1968. Dynamics of the Vietnam Conflict: A Quantitative Analysis and Predictive Computer Simulation. Peace Research Society (International) Paper No. 10.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents and Public Opinion. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1994. Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., and Simon, Dennis M.. 1985. Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity. American Political Science Review 79 (2):334–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paine, Thomas. 1776. Common Sense: Addressed to the Inhabitants of America, on the Following Interesting Subjects. Full text available at ⟨http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Common_Sense⟩. Accessed 24 December 2009.Google Scholar
Perla, Hector Jr. 2005. Days of Decision: A Framing Theory of Public Opposition to the Use of Force Abroad. Paper presented at the 101st Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August-September, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
Popkin, Samuel. 1994. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns. 2d ed.New York: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ). 2008. Character and the Primaries of 2008. Available at ⟨http://www.journalism.org/node/11266⟩. Accessed 2 April 2010.Google Scholar
Ragsdale, Lyn. 1984. The Politics of Presidential Speechmaking, 1949–1980. American Political Science Review 78 (4):971–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Redlawsk, David P. 2002. Hot Cognition or Cool Consideration? Testing the Effects of Motivated Reasoning on Political Decision Making. Journal of Politics 64 (4):1021–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenstiel, Tom. 2004. Character and the Campaign: What Are the Master Narratives About the Candidates in 2004 and How Is the Public Reacting to Them? Washington, D.C.: Project for Excellence in Journalism. Available at ⟨http://www.journalism.org/node/168⟩. Accessed 2 April 2010.Google Scholar
Sanchez, Ricardo S. 2007. Military Reporters and Editors Luncheon Address. 12 October 2007, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav. 2004. How Initiators End Their Wars: The Duration of Warfare and the Terms of Peace. American Journal of Political Science 48 (4):813–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav. 2006. Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs. International Studies Quarterly 50 (2):445–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1998. International Crises and Domestic Politics. American Political Science Review 92:623–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James A. 2004. Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thrall, A. Trevor. 2007. A Bear in the Woods?: Threat Framing and the Marketplace of Values. Security Studies 16 (3):452–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, Kevin H. 1996. Presidential Responses to Foreign Policy Crises: Rational Choice and Domestic Politics. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1):68–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yon, Michael. 2007. Resistance is Futile: You Will Be (Mis)Informed. MichaelYon.com. Available at ⟨http://www.michaelyon-online.com/wp/resistance-is-futile.htm⟩. Accessed 2 April 2010.Google Scholar
Zaller, John R. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, John R. 1994. Elite Leadership of Mass Opinion: New Evidence from the Gulf War. In Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy, edited by Bennett, W. Lance and Paletz, David L., 82–101. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Zaller, John, and Feldman, Stanley. 1992. A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions Versus Revealing Preferences. American Journal of Political Science 36: 579–616.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zalta, Edward N., ed. 2008. “Bayes' Theorem.” Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Available at ⟨http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bayes-theorem⟩. Accessed 2 April 2010.Google Scholar