Hostname: page-component-669899f699-7xsfk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-27T05:34:43.482Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 December 2019

Michael Tomz Open the ORCID record for Michael Tomz [Opens in a new window] ,
Jessica L.P. Weeks Open the ORCID record for Jessica L.P. Weeks [Opens in a new window]  and
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Get access

Abstract

Many theories of international relations assume that public opinion exerts a powerful effect on foreign policy in democracies. Previous research, based on observational data, has reached conflicting conclusions about this foundational assumption. We use experiments to examine two mechanisms—responsiveness and selection—through which opinion could shape decisions about the use of military force. We tested responsiveness by asking members of the Israeli parliament to consider a crisis in which we randomized information about public opinion. Parliamentarians were more willing to use military force when the public was in favor and believed that contravening public opinion would entail heavy political costs. We tested selection by asking citizens in Israel and the US to evaluate parties/candidates, which varied randomly on many dimensions. In both countries, security policy proved as electorally significant as economic and religious policy, and far more consequential than nonpolicy considerations such as gender, race, and experience. Overall, our experiments in two important democracies imply that citizens can affect policy by incentivizing incumbents and shaping who gets elected.

Keywords

Public opinionwardomestic politicsinternational securityforeign policysurvey experiments
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 1 , Winter 2020 , pp. 119 - 143
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Aldrich, John H., Sullivan, John L., and Borgida, Eugene. 1989. Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting. American Political Science Review 83 (1):123–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H., Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter, Reifler, Jason, and Sharp, Kristin Thompson. 2006. Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection. Annual Review of Political Science 9:477–502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Almond, Gabriel A. 1950. The American People and Foreign Policy. Harcourt Brace.Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Groeling, Tim J.. 2010. War Stories. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Potter, Philip B.K.. 2008. Relationships between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy. Annual Review of Political Science 11:39–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Potter, Philip B.K.. 2015. War and Democratic Constraint. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Potter, Philip B.K.. 2019. Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy in the Age of Trump. Journal of Politics 81 (2):747–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bayram, A. Burcu. 2017. Due Deference: Cosmopolitan Social Identity and the Psychology of Legal Obligation in International Politics. International Organization 71 (S1):S137–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Mark S., and Quek, Kai. 2018. Authoritarian Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace. International Organization 72 (1):227–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2009. In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernauer, Thomas. 2013. Climate Change Politics. Annual Review of Political Science 16:421–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Busby, Joshua W., and Monten, Jonathan. 2012. Republican Elites and Foreign Policy Attitudes. Political Science Quarterly 127 (1):105–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chaudoin, Stephen. 2014. Promises or Policies? An Experimental Analysis of International Agreements and Audience Reactions. International Organization 68 (1):235–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Goemans, Hein Erich. 2011. Leaders and International Conflict. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chu, Jonathan. 2019. A Clash of Norms? Reciprocity, International Humanitarian Law, and American Opinion on the Treatment of POWs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 63 (5):1140–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Bernard. 1973. The Public's Impact on Foreign Policy. Little, Brown, and Company.Google Scholar
Colgan, Jeff D. 2013. Domestic Revolutionary Leaders and International Conflict. World Politics 65 (4):656–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Croco, Sarah E., and Weeks, Jessica L.P.. 2016. War Outcomes and Leader Tenure. World Politics 68 (4):577–607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1999. Electoral Accountability and the Control of Politicians. In Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, edited by Przeworski, Adam, Stokes, Susan C., and Manin, Bernard, 55–97. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flores-Macías, Gustavo A., and Kreps, Sarah E.. 2013. Political Parties at War. American Political Science Review 107 (4):833–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flores-Macías, Gustavo A., and Kreps, Sarah E.. 2017. Borrowing Support for War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (5):997–1020.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Foyle, Douglas C. 1999. Counting the Public In: Presidents, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy. Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Gadarian, Shana Kushner. 2010. Foreign Policy at the Ballot Box. Journal of Politics 72 (4):1046–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaines, Brian J., Kuklinski, James H., and Quirk, Paul J.. 2007. The Logic of the Survey Experiment Reexamined. Political Analysis 15 (1):1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher. 2010. Performing on Cue? The Formation of Public Opinion Toward War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (1):88–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter D., and Reifler, Jason. 2009. Paying the Human Costs of War. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, and Grieco, Joseph M.. 2015. Competency Costs in Foreign Affairs. American Journal of Political Science 59 (2):440–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Reifler, Jason, and Feaver, Peter. 2007. Iraq the Vote. Political Behavior 29 (2):151–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gershkoff, Amy, and Kushner, Shana A.. 2005. Shaping Public Opinion: The 9/11-Iraq Connection in the Bush Administration's Rhetoric. Perspectives on Politics 3 (3):525–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra. 2009. Determining Trade Policy. International Organization 63 (3):533–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra. 2017. American Opinion on Trade. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra, and Saunders, Elizabeth N.. 2017. Mapping the Boundaries of Elite Cues. International Studies Quarterly 61 (2):425–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., LeVeck, Brad L., Victor, David G., and Fowler, James H.. 2014. Decision Maker Preferences for International Legal Cooperation. International Organization 68 (4):845–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heffington, Colton, Park, Brandon Beomseob, and Williams, Laron K.. 2019. The “Most Important Problem” Dataset (MIPD). Conflict Management and Peace Science 36 (3):312–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K. 2017. How Attachments to the Nation Shape Beliefs About the World: A Theory of Motivated Reasoning. International Organization 71 (S1):S61–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K., and Shannon, Vaughn P.. 2001. Defending International Norms: The Role of Obligation, Material Interest, and Perception in Decision Making. International Organization 55 (3):621–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K., Tetlock, Philip E., and Visser, Penny S.. 1999. Mass Public Decisions to Go to War: A Cognitive- Interactionist Framework. American Political Science Review 93 (3):553–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 2004. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Stam, Allan C., and Ellis, Cali M.. 2015. Why Leaders Fight. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howell, William G., and Pevehouse, Jon C.. 2007. While Dangers Gather: Congressional Checks on Presidential War Powers. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurwitz, Jon, and Peffley, Mark. 1987a. How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model. American Political Science Review 81 (4):1099–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurwitz, Jon, and Peffley, Mark. 1987b. The Means and Ends of Foreign Policy as Determinants of Presidential Support. American Journal of Political Science 31 (2):236–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Page, Benjamin I.. 2005. Who Influences US Foreign Policy? American Political Science Review 99 (1):107–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Shapiro, Robert Y.. 1999. Lyndon Johnson, Vietnam, and Public Opinion. Presidential Studies Quarterly 29 (3):592–616.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Shapiro, Robert Y.. 2000. Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Johns, Robert, and Davies, Graeme A.M.. 2012. Democratic Peace or Clash of Civilizations? Journal of Politics 74 (4):1038–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johns, Robert, and Davies, Graeme A.M.. 2014. Coalitions of the Willing? Journal of Peace Research 51 (6):767–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., and Brutger, Ryan. 2016. Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory. American Journal of Political Science 60 (1):234–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., Powers, Kathleen, Rathbun, Brian C., and Iyer, Ravi. 2014. Moral Support: How Moral Values Shape Foreign Policy Preferences. Journal of Politics 76 (3):825–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., and Zeitzoff, Thomas. 2017. A Bottom-Up Theory of Public Opinion About Foreign Policy. American Journal of Political Science 61 (3):543–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 1999. Domestic Political Institutions, Credible Commitments, and International Cooperation. American Journal of Political Science 43 (4):979–1002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 2003. Alliance Reliability in Times of War. International Organization 57 (4):801–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levendusky, Matthew S., and Horowitz, Michael C.. 2012. When Backing Down Is the Right Decision. Journal of Politics 74 (2):323–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward, Milner, Helen, and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2000. Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade. American Political Science Review 94 (2):305–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDermott, Rose and Hatemi, Peter K. 2017. The Relationship Between Physical Aggression, Foreign Policy and Moral Choices: Phenotypic and Genetic Findings. Aggressive Behavior 43 (1):37–46.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1963. Constituency Influence in Congress. American Political Science Review 57 (1):45–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V., and Tingley, Dustin. 2016. Sailing the Water's Edge: The Domestic Politics of American Foreign Policy. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Mintz, Alex, Geva, Nehemia, Redd, Steven B., and Carnes, Amy. 1997. The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making. American Political Science Review 91 (3):553–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mintz, Alex, Redd, Steven B., and Vedlitz, Arnold. 2006. Can We Generalize from Student Experiments to the Real World in Political Science, Military Affairs, and International Relations? Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (5):757–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I. 1994. Democratic Responsiveness? Untangling the Links Between Public Opinion and Policy. PS: Political Science and Politics 27 (1):25–29.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., with Bouton, Marshall M.. 2006. The Foreign Policy Disconnect: What Americans Want from Our Leaders But Don't Get. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Brody, Richard A.. 1972. Policy Voting and the Electoral Process. American Political Science Review 66 (3):979–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y.. 1983. Effects of Public Opinion on Policy. American Political Science Review 77 (1):175–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Potter, Phillip B.K. 2016. Lame-Duck Foreign Policy. Presidential Studies Quarterly 46 (4):849–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powlick, Philip J. 1991. The Attitudinal Bases for Responsiveness to Public Opinion Among American Foreign Policy Officials. Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (4):611–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prather, Lauren. 2019. Transnational Ties and Support for Foreign Aid. Working Paper. Available at <http://www.laurenprather.org/uploads/2/5/2/3/25239175/prather_transnational_ties_and_support_for_foreign_aid.pdf>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Press, Daryl G., Sagan, Scott D., and Valentino, Benjamin A.. 2013. Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons. American Political Science Review 107 (1):188–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reifler, Jason, Scotto, Thomas J., and Clarke, Harold D.. 2011. Foreign Policy Beliefs in Contemporary Britain: Structure and Relevance. International Studies Quarterly 55 (1):245–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Renshon, Jonathan. 2017. Fighting for Status: Hierarchy and Conflict in World Politics. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Risse-Kappen, Thomas. 1991. Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies. World Politics 43 (4):479–512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce M. 1990. Controlling the Sword: The Democratic Governance of National Security. Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce M., and Oneal, John R.. 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. Norton.Google Scholar
Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2011. Leaders at War: How Presidents Shape Military Interventions. Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2015. War and the Inner Circle: Democratic Elites and the Politics of Using Force. Security Studies 24 (3):466–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth. 2001. Looking for Audience Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (1):32–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shamir, Michal, and Arian, Asher. 1999. Collective Identity and Electoral Competition in Israel. American Political Science Review 93 (2):265–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Rachel M. 2019. Vengeful Citizens, Violent States. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James A., Mackuen, Michael B., and Erikson, Robert S.. 1995. Dynamic Representation. American Political Science Review 89 (3):543–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tingley, Dustin. 2017. Rising Power on the Mind. International Organization 71 (S1):S165–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007. Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization 61 (4):821–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael, and Weeks, Jessica L.P.. 2013. Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review 107 (3):849–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trager, Robert F., and Vavreck, Lynn. 2011. The Political Costs of Crisis Bargaining. American Journal of Political Science 55(3):526–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weiss, Jessica Chen, and Dafoe, Allan. 2019. Authoritarian Audiences, Rhetoric, and Propaganda in International Crises: Evidence from China. International Studies Quarterly. Available at <https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqz059>.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, Christopher. 2005. On the Salience of Political Issues. Electoral Studies 24 (4):555–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2018. Who Fights for Reputation? The Psychology of Leaders in International Conflict. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren, Renshon, Jonathan, and Kertzer, Joshua. 2018. Tying Hands, Sinking Costs, and Leader Attributes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62 (10): 2150–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Tomz et al. supplementary material

Tomz et al. supplementary material 1

Download Tomz et al. supplementary material(File)
File 8.2 MB
Supplementary material: PDF

Tomz et al. supplementary material

Tomz et al. supplementary material 2

Download Tomz et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 22 MB