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The issue cycle: conceptualizing long-term global political change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 May 2009

John A. Vasquez
Affiliation:
Associate Professor of Political Science at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, in New Brunswick.
Richard W. Mansbach
Affiliation:
Professor of Political Science at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, in New Brunswick.
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Abstract

A conceptual framework for the analysis of global political change is presented and illustrated with examples drawn from the Cold War. The most important issues on an agenda, the critical issues, go through identifiable stages: genesis, crisis, ritualization, dormancy, decision making, and authoritative allocation. The effects of the different stages on behavior of international actors is examined in a preliminary fashion, and a theoretical rationale is offered. Each stage, treated in detail, relates to the others in terms of differences in behavior associated with each stage, the evolving of relationships among actors, and the resolution of issues. The concluding section elaborates the research implications.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 1983

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References

1. See Ole Holsti, R., Siverson, Randolph M., and George, Alexander L., eds., Change in the International System (Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1980)Google Scholar; Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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32. Another of the major logical problems with realist explanations is that the way they describe changes in power is ambiguous and imprecise. As a consequence there is a strong tendency of these explanations to be nonpredictive (or retrodictive) and post hoc; thereby being nonfalsifiable. These problems are not insurmountable, particularly if precise measures of economic, demographic, and military capability are employed. See Singer, J. David, ed., The Correlates of War: II (New York: Free Press, 1980)Google Scholar, and Organski, A. F. K. and Kugler, Jacek, The War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980)Google Scholar.

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