Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T17:41:27.241Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Is the Phone Mightier Than the Sword? Cellphones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 May 2015

Jacob N. Shapiro  and
Nils B. Weidmann
Get access

Abstract

Does improved communication provided by modern cellphone technology affect the rise or fall of violence during insurgencies? A priori predictions are ambiguous; introducing cellphones can enhance insurgent communications but can also make it easier for the population to share information with counterinsurgents and creates opportunities for signals intelligence collection. We provide the first systematic micro-level test of the effect of cellphone communication on conflict using data on Iraq's cellphone network (2004–2009) and event data on violence. We show that increased mobile communications reduced insurgent violence in Iraq, both at the district level and for specific local coverage areas. The results provide support for models of insurgency that focus on noncombatants providing information as the key constraint on violent groups and highlight the fact that small changes in the transaction costs of cooperating with the government can have large macro effects on conflict.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 69 , Issue 2 , Spring 2015 , pp. 247 - 274
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aker, Jenny C. 2010. Information from Markets Near and Far: Mobile Phones and Agricultural Markets in Niger. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2 (3):46–59.Google Scholar
Andreas, Peter. 2002. Transnational Crime and Economic Globalization. In Transnational Organized Crime and International Security. Business as Usual? edited by Berdal, Mats R. and Serrano, Monica, 37–52. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arquilla, John, Ronfeldt, David, and Zanini, Michele. 1999. Networks, Netwar, and Information-Age Terrorism. In Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare, edited by Khalilzad, Zalmay and White, John P., 75–112. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Bahney, Benjamin, Shatz, Howard J., Ganier, Carroll, McPherson, Renny, and Sude, Barbara. 2011. An Economic Analysis of the Financial Records of al-Qa'ida in Iraq. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Bates, Robert H. 2008. When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bellows, John, and Miguel, Edward. 2009. War and Local Collective Action in Sierra Leone. Journal of Public Economics 93 (11–12):1144–57Google Scholar
Berman, Eli, Callen, Michael, Felter, Joseph H., and Shapiro, Jacob N.. 2011. Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the Philippines. Journal of Conflict Resolution 55 (4):496–528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berman, Eli, Felter, Joseph H., Shapiro, Jacob N., and Troland, Erin. 2013. Modest, Secure, and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones. NBER Working Paper 18674. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Berman, Eli, Shapiro, Jacob N., and Felter, Joseph H.. 2011. Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Political Economy 119 (4):766–819.Google Scholar
Biddle, Stephen, Friedman, Jeffrey A., and Shapiro, Jacob N.. 2012. Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? International Security 37 (1):7–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Condra, Luke N., and Shapiro, Jacob N.. 2012. Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage. American Journal of Political Science 56 (1):167–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cordesman, Anthony. 2005. Iraq's Evolving Insurgency. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 2010. Liberation Technology. Journal of Democracy 21 (3):69–83.Google Scholar
Garrett, R. Kelly, and Edwards, Paul N.. 2007. Revolutionary Secrets: Technology's Role in the South African Anti-Apartheid Movement. Social Science Computer Review 25 (1):13–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Innes, Martin. 2006. Policing Uncertainty: Countering Terror Through Community Intelligence and Democratic Policing. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 605 (1):222–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jensen, Robert. 2011. The Digital Provide: Information (Technology), Market Performance, and Welfare in the South Indian Fisheries Sector. Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (3):879–924.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kocher, Matthew. 2004. Human Ecology and Civil War. University of Chicago. Unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago, Chicago.Google Scholar
Leahy, Kevin. 2005. The Impact of Technology on the Command, Control, and Organizational Structure of Insurgent Groups. Master's thesis, US Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, KS.Google Scholar
Lindsay, Carrie Lee. 2011. Iraq Order of Battle—District Level. Dataset. Stanford, CA: Stanford University.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2010. Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War. American Political Science Review 104 (1):1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muckian, Martin. 2006. Structural Vulnerabilities of Networked Insurgencies: Adapting to the New Adversary. Parameters 36 (Winter):14–25.Google Scholar
Nunn, Nathan, and Wantchekon, Leonard. 2011. The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa. American Economic Review 101 (7):3221–52.Google Scholar
Oak Ridge National Laboratory. 2008. LandScan Global Population Database. Oak Ridge, TN. Available at <http://www.ornl.gov/landscan/>. Accessed 14 June 2011..+Accessed+14+June+2011.>Google Scholar
Pierskalla, Jan H., and Hollenbach, Florian M.. 2013. Technology and Collective Action: The Effect of Cell Phone Coverage on Political Violence in Africa. American Political Science Review 107 (22):207–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shirky, Clay. 2011. The Political Power of Social Media. Foreign Affairs 90 (1):28–41.Google Scholar
Staniland, Paul. 2010. Cities on Fire: Social Mobilization, State Policy, and Urban Insurgency. Comparative Political Studies 43 (12):1623–49.Google Scholar
Strother, Tiffany. 2007. Cell Phone Use by Insurgents in Iraq. Shawnee, OK: Urban Warfare Analysis Center.Google Scholar
Sundberg, Ralph, and Melander, Erik. 2013. Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50 (4):523–32.Google Scholar
US Department of Defense (DOD). 2008. Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq: March 2008 Report to Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2008. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
US Government Accountability Office (GAO). 2007. The Department of Defense's Use of Solatia and Condolence Payments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Vanden Eynde, Oliver. 2011. Targets of Violence: Evidence from India's Naxalite Conflict. Unpublished manuscript, Paris School of Economics, Paris.Google Scholar
Weidmann, Nils B. 2009. Geography as Motivation and Opportunity: Group Concentration and Ethnic Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4):526–43.Google Scholar
World Food Programme (WFP). 2004. Baseline Food Security Analysis in Iraq. UN World Food Programme, Iraq Country Office.Google Scholar
World Food Programme (WFP). 2006. Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis in Iraq. UN World Food Programme, Iraq Country Office.Google Scholar
World Food Programme (WFP). 2008. Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA). UN World Food Programme, Iraq Country Office.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Shapiro Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Shapiro Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 1.6 MB
Supplementary material: File

Shapiro Supplementary Material

Shapiro Supplementary Material

Download Shapiro Supplementary Material(File)
File 8.3 MB