Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dk4vv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T06:00:18.389Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

International Negotiations in the Shadow of National Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 July 2014

Stephanie J. Rickard  and
Teri L. Caraway
Get access

Abstract

This study examines the role elections play in negotiations between states and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although loans made by the IMF often require countries to introduce painful austerity measures that provoke a backlash from angry citizens, some governments are able to negotiate more favorable terms than others. Original data on the substantive content of IMF loans show that governments leverage imminent elections to obtain more lenient loan terms. Conditions that require labor market reforms in exchange for IMF financing are relatively less stringent in loans negotiated within six months before a pending democratic election, all else equal. The further away elections are from loan negotiations, the more stringent the labor conditions included in countries’ loan programs. Elections give governments leverage in their international negotiations and this leverage is effective even when states negotiate with unelected bureaucrats during times of economic crisis.

Type
Research Notes
Information
International Organization , Volume 68 , Issue 3 , Summer 2014 , pp. 701 - 720
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anner, Mark, and Caraway, Teri L.. 2010. International Institutions and Workers’ Rights: Between Labor Standards and Market Flexibility. Studies in Comparative International Development 45 (2):151–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, Michael, and Finnemore, Martha. 2004. Rules for the World: International Organizations in Global Politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Bienen, Henry S., and Gersovitz, Mark. 1985. Economic Stabilization, Conditionality, and Political Stability. International Organization 39 (4):729–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bird, Graham. 1996. Borrowing from the IMF: The Policy Implications of Recent Empirical Research. World Development 24 (11):1753–60.Google Scholar
Caraway, Teri L., Rickard, Stephanie J., and Anner, Mark. 2012. International Negotiations and Domestic Politics: The Case of IMF Labor Market Conditionality. International Organization 66 (1):27–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conconi, Paola, Facchini, Giovanni, and Zanardi, Maurizio. 2012. Policymakers’ Horizon and Trade Reform. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8561. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copelovitch, Mark S. 2010. The International Monetary Fund in the Global Economy: Banks, Bonds, and Bailouts. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Davis, Christina L. 2012. Why Adjudicate? Enforcing Trade Rules in the WTO. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy 65 (2):135–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dreher, Axel. 2003. The Influence of Elections on IMF Program Interruptions. Journal of Development Studies 39 (6):101–20.Google Scholar
Dreher, Axel, and Gassebner, Martin. 2012. Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis. International Organization 66 (2):329–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dreher, Axel, and Jensen, Nathan M.. 2007. Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of US Interests on International Monetary Fund Conditions. Journal of Law and Economics 50 (1):105–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gould, Erica. 2006. Money Talks: The International Monetary Fund, Conditionality, and Supplementary Financiers. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Greenhill, Brian, Mosley, Layna, and Prakash, Aseem. 2009. Trade-Based Diffusion of Labor Rights: A Panel Study, 1986–2002. American Political Science Review 103 (4):669–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hafner-Burton, Emilie. 2009. Forced to Be Good: Why Trade Agreements Boost Human Rights. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, and Kaufman, Robert R.. 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hillman, John R. 1980. The Mutual Influence of Italian Domestic Politics and the International Monetary Fund. Fletcher Forum 4 (1):1–33.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D., and Marinov, Nikolay. 2012. Which Elections Can Be Lost? Political Analysis 20 (2):191–210.Google Scholar
Kahler, Miles. 1993. Bargaining with the IMF: Two-Level Strategies and Developing Countries. In Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, edited by Evans, Peter B., Jacobson, Harold K., and Putnam, Robert D., 363–94. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Kim, Moonhawk. 2012. Ex Ante Due Diligence: Formation of PTAs and Protection of Labor Rights. International Studies Quarterly 56 (4):704–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kono, Daniel Y. 2006. Optimal Obfuscation: Democracy and Trade Policy Transparency. American Political Science Review 100 (3):369–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kono, Daniel Y. 2008. Democracy and Trade Discrimination. Journal of Politics 70 (4):942–55.Google Scholar
Leblang, David A. 2002. The Political Economy of Speculative Attacks in the Developing World. International Studies Quarterly 46 (1):69–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 3:183–219.Google Scholar
Mayer, Wolfgang. 1984. Endogenous Tariff Formation. American Economic Review 74 (5):970–85.Google Scholar
Milner, Helen V. 1997. Interests, Institutions and Information: Domestic Politics and International Relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Milner, Helen V., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 1997. Democratic Politics and International Trade Negotiations: Elections and Divided Government as Constraints on Trade Liberalization. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1):117–46.Google Scholar
Moser, Christoph, and Sturm, Jan-Egbert. 2011. Explaining IMF Lending Decisions After the Cold War. Review of International Organizations 6 (3–4):307–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mosley, Layna. 2011. Labor Rights and Multinational Production. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Pop-Eleches, Grigore. 2009. From Economic Crisis to Reform: IMF Programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2000. The Effect of IMF Programs on Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics 62 (2):385–421.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 1988. Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games. International Organization 42 (3):427–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rickard, Stephanie J., and Caraway, Teri L.. 2014. The International Politics of Austerity: The Puzzling Case of Public Sector Reforms. Paper presented at the seventh Annual Conference on the Political Economy of International Organization. 16-18 Jaunary, Princeton.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Steinwand, Martin C., and Stone, Randall W.. 2008. The International Monetary Fund: A Review of the Recent Evidence. Review of International Organization 3 (2):123–49.Google Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2002. Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2004. The Political Economy of IMF Lending in Africa. American Political Science Review 98 (4):577–91.Google Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2008. The Scope of IMF Conditionality. International Organization 62 (4):589–620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2011. Controlling Institutions: International Organizations and the Global Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thacker, Strom. 1999. The High Politics of IMF Lending. World Politics 52 (1):38–75.Google Scholar
Vreeland, James Raymond. 2003. The IMF and Economic Development. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2007. The International Monetary Fund: Politics of Conditional Lending. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Weingast, Barry, Shepsle, Kenneth, and Johnsen, Christopher. 1981. The Political Economy of Benefits and Costs: A Neoclassical Approach to Distributive Politics. Journal of Political Economy 89 (4):642–64.Google Scholar
Wolfensohn, James. 2013. “Reflections on a Changing World: 1950–2050.” Public lecture delivered at the London School of Economics, London, 29 May.Google Scholar