Hostname: page-component-669899f699-8p65j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-24T22:38:01.954Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

How Prior Military Experience Influences the Future Militarized Behavior of Leaders

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 July 2014

Michael C. Horowitz  and
Allan C. Stam
Get access

Abstract

Policy-makers and the electorate assume political executives' life experiences affect their policy choices once in office. Recent international relations work on leaders focuses almost entirely on how political institutions shape leaders' choices rather than on leaders' personal attributes and how they influence policy choices. This article focuses the analytic lens on leaders and their personal backgrounds. We theorize that the prior military background of a leader is an important life experience with direct relevance for how leaders evaluate the utility of using military force. We test several propositions employing a new data set, building on Archigos, that encompasses the life background characteristics of more than 2,500 heads of state from 1875 to 2004. The results show that the leaders most likely to initiate militarized disputes and wars are those with prior military service but no combat experience, as well as former rebels.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 68 , Issue 3 , Summer 2014 , pp. 527 - 559
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Achen, Christopher H. 2005. Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where They Belong. Conflict Management and Peace Science 22 (4):327–39.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan N., and Tucker, Richard. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series—Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):1260–88.Google Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan. 2000. Eugene: A Conceptual Manual. International Interactions 26 (2):179–204.Google Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan. 2005. The Behavioral Origins of War. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Berry, William D., DeMerrit, Jacqueline H.R., and Esarey, Justin. 2010. Testing for Interaction in Binary Logit and Probit Models: Is a Product Term Essential? American Journal of Political Science 54 (1):248–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Besley, Timothy, Montalvo, Jose G., and Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2011. Do Educated Leaders Matter? Economic Journal 121 (554):F205–27.Google Scholar
Besley, Timothy, and Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2011. Do Democracies Select More Educated Leaders? American Political Science Review 105 (3):552–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betts, Richard K. 1977. Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William R., and Golder, Matt. 2006. Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1):63–82.Google Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2004. Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms. International Organization 58 (4):807–20.Google Scholar
Brecher, Michael. 1996. Crisis Escalation: Model and Findings. International Political Science Review 17 (2):215–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brunk, Gregory G., Secrest, Donald, and Tamashiro, Howard. 1990. Military Views of Morality and War: An Empirical Study of the Attitudes of Retired American Officers. International Studies Quarterly 34 (1):83–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph M., and Morrow, James D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Burden, Barry C. 2007. Personal Roots of Representation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Caspi, Avshalmon, Roberts, Brent W., and Shiner, Rebecca L.. 2005. Personality Development: Stability and Change. Annual Review of Psychology 56:453–84.Google Scholar
Cheibub, José A., Gandhi, Jennifer, and Vreeland, James R.. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143 (1–2):67–101.Google Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Goemans, Hein E.. 2003. Peace Through Insecurity: Tenure and International Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 47 (4):443–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Goemans, Hein E. 2004. International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient? American Journal of Political Science 48 (3):604–19.Google Scholar
Colgan, Jeff D. 2010. Oil and Revolutionary Governments: Fuel for International Conflict. International Organization 64 (4):661–94.Google Scholar
Colgan, Jeff D. 2013. Domestic Revolutionary Leaders and International Conflict. World Politics 65 (4):656–90.Google Scholar
Corr, Philip J. 2004. Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory and Personality. Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Reviews 28 (3):317–32.Google Scholar
Croco, Sarah E. 2011. The Decider's Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment. American Political Science Review 105 (3):457–77.Google Scholar
Cutchin, Malcolm P., Martin, Kathryn Remmes, Owen, Steven V., and Goodwin, James S.. 2008. Concern About Petrochemical Health Risk Before and After a Refinery Explosion. Risk Analysis 28 (3):589–601.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Debs, Alexandre, and Goemans, Hein E.. 2010. Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War. American Political Science Review 104 (3):430–45.Google Scholar
de Gaulle, Charles. 1960. The Edge of the Sword. Translated by Hopkins, G.. London: Faber and Faber.Google Scholar
de Tocqueville, Alexis. 2000. Democracy in America. Translated by Mansfield, Harvey C. and Winthrop, Delba. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Downes, Alexander B., and Sechser, Todd S.. 2012. The Illusion of Democratic Credibility. International Organization 66 (3):457–89.Google Scholar
Feaver, Peter D., and Gelpi, Christopher. 2004. Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 1999. Authoritarian Breakdown: Empirical Test of a Game Theoretic Argument. Paper presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, Atlanta, GA.Google Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter D., and Reifler, Jason. 2009. Paying the Human Costs of War: American Public Opinion and Casualties in Military Conflicts. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
George, Alexander L. 1980. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils P., Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Havard. 2002. Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (5):615–37.Google Scholar
Goemans, Hein E. 2000. War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Hein E. 2008. Which Way Out? The Manner and Consequences of Losing Office. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (6):771–94.Google Scholar
Goemans, Henk E., Gleditsch, Kristian S., and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2009. Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders. Journal of Peace Research 46 (2):269–83.Google Scholar
Goldgeier, James M. 1994. Leadership Style and Soviet Foreign Policy: Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Greenstein, Fred I. 1969. Personality and Politics: Problems of Evidence, Inference, and Conceptualization. Chicago: Markham.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael, McDermott, Rose, and Stam, Allan C.. 2005. Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (5):661–85.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1957. The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Janowitz, Morris. 1960. The Professional Soldier: A Social and Political Portrait. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Jennings, M. Kent, Markus, Gregory B., and Niemi, Richard G.. 1991. Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study, 1965–1982: Three Waves Combined. Study No. 9553. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jha, Saumtira, and Wilkinson, Steven. 2012. Does Combat Experience Foster Organizational Skill? Evidence from Ethnic Cleansing During the Partition of South Asia. American Political Science Review 106 (4):883–907.Google Scholar
Jones, Benjamin F., and Olken, Benjamin A.. 2005. Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (3):835–64.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis, and Kocher, Matthew. 2007. How Free Is “Free Riding” in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem. World Politics 59 (2):177–216.Google Scholar
Kennedy, Andrew B. 2011. The International Ambitions of Mao and Nehru: National Efficacy Beliefs and the Making of Foreign Policy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kerry, John F. 2004. Text of John Kerry's Acceptance Speech at the Democratic National Convention. Washington Post (Internet ed.), 29 July. Available at <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25678-2004Jul29.html>. Accessed 10 August 2013.. Accessed 10 August 2013.' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Kerry,+John+F.+2004.+Text+of+John+Kerry's+Acceptance+Speech+at+the+Democratic+National+Convention.+Washington+Post+(Internet+ed.),+29+July.+Available+at+.+Accessed+10+August+2013.>Google Scholar
Khruschev, Nikita. 1962. Department of State Telegram Transmitting Letter from Chairman Khruschev to President Kennedy, October 26, 1962. Boston, MA: John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum. Available at <http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct26/doc4.html>. Accessed 5 January 2014..+Accessed+5+January+2014.>Google Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2):347–61.Google Scholar
Lentz, Harris M. 1994. Heads of States and Governments: A Worldwide Encyclopedia of Over 2,300 Leaders, 1945 Through 1992. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.Google Scholar
Lentz, Harris M. 1999. Encyclopedia of Heads of States and Governments: 1900 Through 1945. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.Google Scholar
Lerner, Jennifer S., and Keltner, Dacher. 2001. Fear, Anger, and Risk. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (1):146–59.Google Scholar
Ludwig, Arnold M. 2002. King of the Mountain: The Nature of Political Leadership. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2002. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2000. Dataset Users' Manual. Center for Systemic Peace. Available at <http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm>. Accessed 10 August 2013.. Accessed 10 August 2013.' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Marshall,+Monty+G.,+and+Jaggers,+Keith.+2002.+Polity+IV+Project:+Political+Regime+Characteristics+and+Transitions,+1800–2000.+Dataset+Users'+Manual.+Center+for+Systemic+Peace.+Available+at+.+Accessed+10+August+2013.>Google Scholar
Matthews, David R. 1954. The Social Background of Political Decision-Makers. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Norton, Edward C., Wang, Hua, and Ai, Chunrong. 2004. Computing Interaction Effects and Standard Errors in Logit and Probit Models. Stata Journal 4 (2):154–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pickering, Alan D., Corr, Philip J., Powell, Jane H., Kumari, Veena, Thornton, Jasper C., and Gray, Jeffrey A.. 1997. Individual Differences in Reactions to Reinforcing Stimuli Are Neither Black Nor White: To What Extent Are They Gray? In The Scientific Study of Human Nature: Tribute to Hans J. Evsenck at Eighty, edited by Nyborg, Helmuth, 36–67. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1984. The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Ray, James L. 2003. Explaining Interstate Conflict and War: What Should Be Controlled For? Conflict Management and Peace Science 20 (2):1–31.Google Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Roberts, Brent W., Caspi, Avshalmon, and Moffitt, Terrie E.. 2003. Work Experiences and Personality Development in Young Adulthood. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 84 (3):582–93.Google Scholar
Sarkees, Meredith R., and Wayman, Frank. 2010. Resort to War: 1816–2007. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2011. Leaders at War: How Presidents Shape Military Interventions. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Sechser, Todd S. 2004. Are Soldiers Less War-Prone Than Statesmen? Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):746–74.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David. 1988. Reconstructing the Correlates of War Dataset on Material Capabilities of States, 1816–1985. International Interactions 14 (2):115–32.Google Scholar
Sirota, David. 2011. Why People Become Chickenhawks. Salon.com, 29 June. Available at <http://www.salon.com/news/david_sirota/2011/06/29/chickenhawk_origins>. Accessed 10 August 2013..+Accessed+10+August+2013.>Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 2004. Election Timing. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Snyder, Jack L. 1984. The Ideology of the Offensive: Military Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Voors, Maarten, Nillesen, Eleonora, Verwimp, Philip, Bulte, Erwin, Lensink, Robert, and van Soest, Daan. 2010. Does Conflict Affect Preferences? Results from Field Experiments in Burundi. MICROCON Research Working Paper 21. Brighton, UK: MICROCON.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Washington, Ebonya. 2007. Female Socialization: How Daughters Affect Their Legislator Fathers' Voting on Women's Issues. Working Paper 11924. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Weeks, Jessica L. 2012. Strongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 106 (2):326–47.Google Scholar
Xue, Gui, Lu, Zhonglin, Levin, Irwin P., and Bechara, Antoine. 2010. The Impact of Prior Risk Experiences on Subsequent Risky Decision-Making: The Role of the Insula. Neuroimage 50 (2):709–16.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Horowitz and Stam Supplementary Material

Supplementary data

Download Horowitz and Stam Supplementary Material(File)
File 9.3 MB