Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-02T23:49:02.724Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Tactical Diversity in Militant Violence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 December 2017

Michael C. Horowitz ,
Evan Perkoski  and
Philip B.K. Potter
Get access

Abstract

Militant groups, like all organizations, carefully consider the tactics and strategies that they employ. We assess why some militant organizations diversify into multiple tactics while others limit themselves to just one or a few. This is an important puzzle because militant organizations that employ multiple approaches to violence are more likely to stretch state defenses, achieve tactical success, and threaten state security. We theorize that militant organizations respond to external pressure by diversifying their tactics to ensure their survival and continued relevance, and that the primary sources of such pressure are government repression and interorganizational competition. We find consistent support for these propositions in tests of both the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROB) data sets. We bolster these findings with an additional specification that employs ethnic fractionalization in the first stage of a multi-process recursive model. These findings are relevant not only for academic research but for policy as well. While it is difficult for countries to anticipate the character of future tactical choices, they may be able to anticipate which groups will most readily diversify and thereby complicate counterterrorism efforts.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 72 , Issue 1 , Winter 2018 , pp. 139 - 171
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abrahms, Max, and Potter, Philip B.K.. 2015. Explaining Terrorism: Leadership Deficits and Militant Group Tactics. International Organization 69 (2):311–42.Google Scholar
Ackerman, Gary. 2005. WMD Terrorism Research: Whereto from Here? International Studies Review 7 (1):140–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ackerman, Gary. 2008. Human and Social Forces in the Spread of the IED Threat: Innovation, Diffusion and Adaptation. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. Available at <www.start.umd.edu/start/announcements/IED_Workshop_Report.pdf>..>Google Scholar
Angrist, Joshua D., and Pischke, Jörn-Steffen. 2009. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Araj, Bader. 2008. Harsh State Repression as a Cause of Suicide Bombing: The Case of the Palestinian–Israeli Conflict. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 31 (4):284–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Asal, Victor, Legault, Richard, Szekely, Ora, and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. 2013. Gender Ideologies and Forms of Contentious Mobilization in the Middle East. Journal of Peace Research 50 (3):305–18.Google Scholar
Asal, Victor, and Rethemeyer, R. Karl. 2008. The Nature of the Beast: Organizational Structures and the Lethality of Terrorist Attacks. Journal of Politics 70 (2):437–49.Google Scholar
Atran, Scott. 2003. Genesis of Suicide Terrorism. Science 299 (5612):1534–39.Google Scholar
Banks, Arthur S., and Wilson, Kenneth A.. 2015. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive. Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Available at <http://www.databanksinternational.com>..>Google Scholar
Barker, Alec D. 2011. Improvised Explosive Devices in Southern Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, 2002–2009. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 34 (8):600–20.Google Scholar
Bergen, Peter L., Hoffman, Bruce, and Bipartisan Policy Center. 2010. Assessing the Terrorist Threat: A Report of the Bipartisan Policy Center's National Security Preparedness Group. Bipartisan Policy Center.Google Scholar
Biziouras, Nikolaos. 2014. Divided Leaders, Critical Masses, and the Escalation of Interethnic Violence: Suicide Terrorism Among the Tamil Tigers. Democracy and Security 10 (1):52–72.Google Scholar
Blomberg, S. Brock, Engel, Rozlyn C., and Sawyer, Reid. 2010. On the Duration and Sustainability of Transnational Terrorist Organizations. Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (2):303–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blomberg, S. Brock, Gaibulloev, Khusrav, and Sandler, Todd. 2011. Terrorist Group Survival: Ideology, Tactics, and Base of Operations. Public Choice 149:441–63Google Scholar
Bloom, Mia. 2004. Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding. Political Science Quarterly 119 (1):61–88.Google Scholar
Bloom, Mia. 2005. Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Blum, Andrew, Asal, Victor, and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. 2005. Nonstate Actors, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction. International Studies Review 7 (1):133–37.Google Scholar
Brandt, Patrick T., and Sandler, Todd. 2009. Hostage Taking: Understanding Terrorism Event Dynamics. Journal of Policy Modeling 31 (5):758–78.Google Scholar
Brym, Robert J., and Araj, Bader. 2006. Suicide Bombing as Strategy and Interaction: The Case of the Second Intifada. Social Forces 84 (4):1969–86.Google Scholar
Bueno De Mesquita, Ethan 2007. Politics and the Suboptimal Provision of Counterterror. International Organization 61 (1):9–36.Google Scholar
Byman, Daniel, Chalk, Peter, Hoffman, Bruce, Rosenau, William, and Brannan, David. 2001. Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Luc, Girardin. 2007. Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies. American Political Science Review 101 (1):173–85.Google Scholar
Chakrabarti, Abhirup 2014. Organizational Adaptation in an Economic Shock: The Role of Growth Reconfiguration. Strategic Management Journal 36 (11):1717–38.Google Scholar
Cingranelli, David L., Richards, David L., and Clay, K. Chad. 2014. The CIRI Human Rights Dataset. Version 2014.04.14. Available at <http://www.humanrightsdata.com>..>Google Scholar
Crenshaw, Martha. 1987. Theories of Terrorism: Instrumental and Organizational Approaches. The Journal of Strategic Studies 10 (4):13–31.Google Scholar
Cronin, Audrey K. 2009. How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian, Soule, Sarah, and Armstrong, David. 2011. Protesting While Black? The Differential Policing of American Activism, 1960–1990. American Sociological Review 76 (1):152–78.Google Scholar
DiMaggio, Paul J., and Powell, Walter W.. 1983. The Iron Cage Revisited: Institutional Isomorphism and Collective Rationality in Organizational Fields. American Sociological Review 48 (2):147–60.Google Scholar
DiMaggio, Paul J., and Powell, Walter W.. 1991. The New Institutionalism in Organizational Analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Dugan, Laura, and Chenoweth, Erica. 2012. Moving Beyond Deterrence: The Effectiveness of Raising the Expected Utility of Abstaining from Terrorism in Israel. American Sociological Review 77 (4):597–624.Google Scholar
Dugan, Lauren, Gary, LaFree and Alex, R. Piquero. 2005. Testing a Rational Choice Model of Airline Hijackings. Criminology 43 (4):1031–65.Google Scholar
Eubank, William Lee, and Weinberg, Leonard. 1994. Does Democracy Encourage Terrorism? Terrorism and Political Violence 6 (4):417–35.Google Scholar
Faria, João Ricardo, and Arce M, Daniel G.. 2005. Terror Support and Recruitment. Defence and Peace Economics 16 (4):263–73.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97 (1):75–90.Google Scholar
Fidelity Investments. 2014. The Guide to Diversification: Build a Long-term Investment Strategy to Help Realize Your Goals. Available at <https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/guide-to-diversification>..>Google Scholar
Findley, Michael G., and Young, Joseph K.. 2012. More Combatant Groups, More Terror? Empirical Tests of an Outbidding Logic. Terrorism and Political Violence 24 (5):706–21.Google Scholar
Freedman, Lawrence. 1981. The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Goetzmann, William N., and Kumar, Alok. 2008. Equity Portfolio Diversification. Review of Finance 12 (3):433–63.Google Scholar
Golany, Boaz, Kaplan, Edward H., Marmur, Abraham, and Rothblum, Uriel G.. 2009. Nature Plays with Dice—Terrorists Do Not: Allocating Resources to Counter Strategic Versus Probabilistic Risks. European Journal of Operational Research 192 (1):198–208.Google Scholar
Gupta, Dipak K. 2008. Understanding Terrorism and Political Violence: The Life Cycle of Birth, Growth, Transformation, and Demise. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Hoffman, Bruce. 2004. The Changing Face of Al Qaeda and the Global War on Terrorism. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 27 (6):549—60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoffman, Bruce, and McCormick, Gordon H.. 2004. Terrorism, Signaling, and Suicide Attack. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 27 (4):243–81.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C. 2010. Nonstate Actors and the Diffusion of Innovations: The Case of Suicide Terrorism. International Organization 64 (1):33–64.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C. 2015. The Rise and Spread of Suicide Bombing. Annual Review of Political Science 18:69–84.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., and Potter, Philip B.K.. 2014. Allying to Kill Terrorist Intergroup Cooperation and the Consequences for Lethality. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (2):199–225.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Im, Eric Iksoon, Cauley, Jon, and Sandler, Todd. 1987. Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach. Kyklos 40 (2):238–55.Google Scholar
Jackson, Brian A., and Frelinger, David R.. 2009. Understanding Why Terrorist Operations Succeed or Fail. Washington, DC: RAND Corporation. Available at <http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP257.sum.pdf>..>Google Scholar
Jackson Wade, Sara, and Reiter, Dan. 2007. Does Democracy Matter? Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (2):329–48.Google Scholar
Jacobson, Daniel and Edward H., Kaplan. 2007. Suicide Bombings and Targeted Killings in (Counter-) Terror Games. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (5):772—92.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew H., and Walter, Barbara F.. 2006. The Strategies of Terrorism. International Security 31 (1):49–80.Google Scholar
LaFree, Gary, Dugan, Laura, and Korte, Raven. 2009. The Impact of British Counterterrorist Strategies on Political Violence in Northern Ireland: Comparing Deterrence and Backlash Models. Criminology 47 (1):17–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawrence, Paul R., and Lorsch, Jay W.. 1967. Differentiation and Integration in Complex Organizations. Administrative Science Quarterly 10 (1):1–47.Google Scholar
Lee, Chris, Lindstrom, Ronny, Moore, Will H., and Turan, Kursad. 2004. Ethnicity and Repression: The Ethnic Composition of Countries and Human Rights Violations. In Understanding Human Rights Violations: New Systematic Studies, edited by Carey, Sabine and Poe, Steven C., 186–201. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate.Google Scholar
Levinthal, Daniel A. 1991. Organizational Adaptation and Environmental Selection-Interrelated Processes of Change. Organization Science 2 (1):140–45.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1983. Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems. World Politics: A Quarterly Journal of International Relations 36 (1):76–99.Google Scholar
Tung, Mao Tse. 1963. Selected Military Writings. New York: Foreign Languages Press.Google Scholar
Tung, Mao Tse. 2005. The Art of War by Mao Tse-tung. New York: El Paso Norte Press.Google Scholar
March, James G., and Simon, Herbert Alexander. 1958. Organizations. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Markowitz, Harry M. 1968. Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. Vol. 16. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Marshall, Mony G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2002. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2000. University of Maryland's Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM). <http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm>..' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Marshall,+Mony+G.,+and+Jaggers,+Keith.+2002.+Polity+IV+Project:+Political+Regime+Characteristics+and+Transitions,+1800–2000.+University+of+Maryland's+Center+for+International+Development+and+Conflict+Management+(CIDCM).+.>Google Scholar
Martel, William C. 2011. Victory in War: Foundations of Modern Strategy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
McNamara, Gerry, and Bromiley, Philip. 1999. Risk and Return in Organizational Decision Making. Academy of Management Journal 42 (3):330–39.Google Scholar
Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism. 2008. Big, Allied and Dangerous (BAAD). Terrorist Organizational Profiles. Retrieved from <http://www.start.umd.edu/tops/> 11 April 2016.+11+April+2016.>Google Scholar
Minorities at Risk Project. 2009. Minorities at Risk Dataset. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Retrieved from <http://www.mar.umd.edu> 11 April 2016.+11+April+2016.>Google Scholar
Moghadam, Assaf. 2013. How Al Qaeda Innovates. Security Studies 22 (3):466–97.Google Scholar
Moloney, Ed. 2003. A Secret History of the IRA. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.Google Scholar
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). 2016. Global Terrorism Database [Data file]. Retrieved from <http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd>..>Google Scholar
Nemeth, Charles P. 2013. Homeland Security: An Introduction to Principles and Practice. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.Google Scholar
Olsen, Johan P., and March, James G.. 1989. Rediscovering Institutions: The Organizational Basis of Politics. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1982. The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Pape, Robert. 2005. Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Paquette, Laure. 2010. Terrorist-Insurgent Thinking and Joint Special Operational Planning Doctrine and Procedures. Joint Special Operations University: JOSU P10-1.Google Scholar
Paul, Christopher. 2009. How Do Terrorists Generate and Maintain Support? In Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, edited by Davis, P.K. and Cragin, K., 113–50. Washington, DC: Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
Pedahzur, Ami. 2005. Suicide Terrorism. Malden, MA: Polity.Google Scholar
Peroff, Kathleen, and Hewitt, Christopher. 1980. Rioting in Northern Ireland: The Effects of Different Policies. Journal of Conflict Resolution 24 (4):593–612.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1984. The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1993. Nationalism, the Mass Army, and Military Power. International Security 18 (2):80–124.Google Scholar
Potter, Philip B.K., 2013. Terrorism in China: Growing Threats with Global Implications. Strategic Studies Quarterly 7 (4):70–92.Google Scholar
Rajan, Raghuram, Servaes, Henri, and Zingales, Luigi. 2000. The Cost of Diversity: The Diversification Discount and Inefficient Investment. The Journal of Finance 55 (1):35–80.Google Scholar
Romanelli, Elaine, and Tushman, Michael L.. 1994. Organizational Transformation as Punctuated Equilibrium: An Empirical Test. Academy of Management Journal 37 (5):1141–66.Google Scholar
Roodman, David, and Morduch, Jonathan. 2014. The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evidence. Journal of Development Studies 50 (4):583–604.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Sandler, Todd. 2004. Too Much of a Good Thing? The Proactive Response Dilemma. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):657–71.Google Scholar
Schmid, Alex P. 1992. Terrorism and Democracy. Terrorism and Political Violence 4 (4):14–25.Google Scholar
Schwartz, Stephen I. 1998. Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Secretary of State for the Home Department. 2011. Prevent Strategy. Presented to Parliament by the Secretary of State for the Home Department by Command of Her Majesty, June 2011. Available at <https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/97976/prevent-strategy-review.pdf>..>Google Scholar
Shapiro, Jacob N. 2013. The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stevenson, Jonathan. 2001. Pragmatic Counter-terrorism. Survival 43 (4):35–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tzu, Sun. 1963. The Art of War. Translated by Griffith, Samuel B.. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Thompson, James D. 1967. Organizations in Action: Social Science Bases of Administration. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Walker, Scott, and Poe, Steven C.. 2002. Does Cultural Diversity Affect Countries’ Respect for Human Rights? Human Rights Quarterly 24 (1):237–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watts, Clint. 2016. Deciphering Competition Between al Qaeda and the Islamic State. CTC Sentinal 9 (7):1–6.Google Scholar
Weitzel, William, and Jonsson, Ellen. 1989. Decline in Organizations: A Literature Integration and Extension. Administrative Science Quarterly 34 (1):91–109.Google Scholar
White, Robert W. 1989. From Peaceful Protest to Guerrilla War: Micromobilization of the Provisional Irish Republican Army. American Journal of Sociology 94 (6):1277–302.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, Paul. 2014. Terrorism Versus Democracy: The Liberal State Response. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, Paul, and Jenkins, Brian. 2013. Aviation Terrorism and Security. Vol. 6. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and Why They Do It. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Wood, Reed M., and Gibney, Mark. 2010. The Political Terror Scale (PTS): A Re-introduction and a Comparison to CIRI. Human Rights Quarterly 32 (2):367–400.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Horowitz et al. supplementary material

Horowitz et al. supplementary material 1

Download Horowitz et al. supplementary material(File)
File 433.7 KB