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USEOF EXPERT KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION TO ESTIMATE PARAMETERS IN HEALTH ECONOMIC DECISION MODELS

Part of: Special Collection - Methods

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 February 2015

David Hadorn ,
Giorgi Kvizhinadze ,
Lucie Collinson  and
Tony Blakely
David Hadorn
Affiliation:
Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New [email protected]
Giorgi Kvizhinadze
Affiliation:
Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New [email protected]
Lucie Collinson
Affiliation:
Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New [email protected]
Tony Blakely
Affiliation:
Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New [email protected]
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Abstract

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and methods of expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for specifying input parameters in health economic decision models (HEDM).

Methods: We created two samples using the National Health System Economic Evaluations Database: (1) 100 randomly selected HEDM studies to determine prevalence of EKE and (2) sixty studies using a formal EKE process to determine methods used.

Results: Fifty-seven (57 percent) of the random sample included at least one EKE-derived parameter. Of these, six (10 percent) used a formal expert process. Thirty-four studies from our second sample of sixty studies (57 percent) described at least one aspect of the process (e.g., elicitation method) with reasonable clarity. In approximately two-thirds of studies the external experts estimated parameters de novo; the remainder confirmed or modified initial estimates provided by authors, or the method was unclear. The majority of elicitations obtained point estimates only, although a few studies asked experts to estimate ranges of parameter values.

Conclusions: The use of EKE for parameter estimation is common in HEDMs, although there is room for improvement in the methods used.

Keywords

Expert opinionHealth knowledgeAttitudesPracticeDecision modelingAssessmentBiomedical technology
Type
Methods
Information
International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care , Volume 30 , Issue 4 , October 2014 , pp. 461 - 468
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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