Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-08T01:27:39.487Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Oil Revenue and Kuwait's Economy: An Econometric Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2009

Mahmoud A. Kaboudan
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

This paper presents a macroeconomic model for a small developing oil-exporting economy: Kuwait. The model is a simultaneous system of difference equations. Historic effects of changes in revenues from oil exports on the country's economic conditions are simulated. The model is then used to forecast these conditions through 1990, and to test two fiscal policy alternatives under the assumption that revenues from Kuwait's oil exports will remain constant from 1986 to 1990. The following are key words: developing economies; oil-exporting economies; Middle East economies; Kuwait; Kuwait's economy; policy models; macroeconomic models; econometric models; macroeconometric models; forecasting models; and policy models.

Type
Articles
Information
International Journal of Middle East Studies , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , February 1988 , pp. 45 - 66
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1988

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Alam, M. S., “The Basic Macro-economics of Oil Economies,” The Journal of Development Studies, 16, 2 (01 1982), 205–16.Google Scholar
Al-Nafisi, A. A. F., Al-Kuwayt, al-ra'y al-akhar (London, 1978).Google Scholar
Aperjis, D., The Oil Market in the 1980s: OPEC Oil Policy and Economic Development (Cambridge, 1982).Google Scholar
Al-Sabah, Y. S., The Oil Economy of Kuwait (London, 1980).Google Scholar
Central Bank of Kuwait, Annual Economic Report, issues 1970 to 1983.Google Scholar
Chatelus, M. and Schemeil, Y., “Towards a New Political Economy of State Industrialization in the Arab Middle East,” International Journal of Middle East Studies, 16, 2 (05 1984), 251–65.Google Scholar
El-Azhary, M. S., The Impact of Oil Revenues on Arab Gulf Development (London, 1984).Google Scholar
El Mallakh, R. and Atta, J. K., The Absorptive Capacity of Kuwait: Domestic and International Perspective (Lexington, Mass., 1981).Google Scholar
Gemmell, N., “Review of The Absorptive Capacity of Kuwait: Domestic and International Perspective, by El Mallakh and Atta,” The Journal of Development Studies 19, 2 (1983), 279–80.Google Scholar
Girgis, M., Industrial Progress in Small Oil-Exporting Countries: The Prospect for Kuwait (Boulder, 1983).Google Scholar
Kestenbaum, C., “Review of The Absorptive Capacity of Kuwait: Domestic and International Perspective, by Al Mallakh and Atta,” The Middle East Journal, 38, 5 (1984), 423–24.Google Scholar
Klein, L. R. and Evans, M. K., Econometric Gaming (London, 1969).Google Scholar
Khouja, M. W. and Sadler, P. G., The Economy of Kuwait: Development and Role in International Finance (London, 1979).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
“Kuwait: KPC Sees Profits Drop,” Middle East Economic Digest, 5 04 1986, 18–19.Google Scholar
“Kuwait: Special Report,” Middle East Economic Digest, 04 1985, 1–10.Google Scholar
“Kuwait: Special Report,” Middle East Economic Digest, 04 1986, 2–4.Google Scholar
Labys, W. C., Dynamic Commodity Models: Specfication, Estimation, and Simulation (Lexington, 1973).Google Scholar
Maddala, G. S., Econometrics (New York, 1977).Google Scholar
Marzouk, M. S., “An Econometric Input-Output Approach for Projecting Sectoral Manpower Requirements: The Case of Kuwait,” in Sherbiny, N. A., ed., Manpower Planning in the Oil Countries (Greenwich, Conn., 1981).Google Scholar
Ministry of Planning, Kuwait, Annual Statistical Abstracts (1973–1983).Google Scholar
Ministry of Planning, Kuwait, National Accounts Statistics (1973–1983).Google Scholar
Naylor, T. H., ed., Computer Simulation Experiments with Models of Economic Systems (New York, 1971).Google Scholar
Niblock, T., Social and Economic Development in the Arab Gulf (New York, 1980).Google Scholar
Otaqui, S., “Kuwait: Emerging from the Gloom,” Middle East Economic Digest, 28, 25 (07, 1984), 27–30.Google Scholar
Otaqui, S., “Kuwait Cracks Down on Commercial Banks,” Middle East Economic Digest, 30, 1 (01, 1986), 8–10.Google Scholar
Razavi, H., “An Analysis of Iran's Oil Production Policy: A Welfare Maximization Approach,” Applied Economics, 15, 2 (1983), 243–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richards, S. and Martin, P. L., “The Laissez-Faire Approach to International Labor Migration: The Case of the Arab Middle East,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31, 3 (1983), 652–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sayigh, Y. A., Arab Oil Policies in the 1970s: Opportunity and Responsibility (London, 1983).Google Scholar
Shaw, R. P., Mobilizing Human Resources in the Arab World (London, 1983).Google Scholar
Sherbiny, N. A., “Expatriate Labor Flows to the Arab Oil Countries in the 1980s,” The Middle East Journal, 38, 4 (1984), 643–67.Google Scholar
Serageldin, I. and Li, B., “Tools for Manpower Planning: The World Bank Models: Vol. 1,” World Bank Staff Papers, No. 587 (Washington, 1983).Google Scholar
Serageldin, I., Socknat, J., Birks, J. S., and Sinclair, C., “Some Issues Related to Labor Migration in the Middle East and North America,” The Middle East Journal, 38, 4 (1984), 615–35.Google Scholar
Venouss, D., Walker, C. K., and Thompson, A. F., “OPEC's Goal and Strategies,” International Journal of Middle East Studies, 16, 2 (05 1984), 199–206.Google Scholar
Ziwar-Daftari, M., ed., Issues and Development: The Arab Gulf States (London, 1980).Google Scholar