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The Demographic Transition in the Middle East and North Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2009

James Allman
James Allman
Affiliation:
Columbia University, New York
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Extract

Is there indeed a new or renewed demographic transition? The evidence suggests that there is. A rapidly growing number of countries of diverse cultural background have entered the natality transition since World War II and after a 25-year lapse in such entries. In these countries the transition is moving much faster than it did in Europe. This is probably related to the fact that progress in general is moving much faster in such matters as urbanization, education, health, communication, and often per capita income.

Type
Articles
Information
International Journal of Middle East Studies , Volume 12 , Issue 3 , November 1980 , pp. 277 - 301
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1980

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References

Notes

Author's Note: I would like to thank Allan Hill, Huda Zuryck, Atef Khalifa, Peter Doad, Samir Khalaf, Serim Timur, and the IJMES reviewer for helpful, critical comments on an earlier draft of this paper which was published in J. Aliman, ed., Women's Status and Fertility in the Muslim World, New York: Praeger, 1978, pp. 3–32.

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3 For a review of the situation in the region only a few years ago see Shafi, A. M. N. El, “Administrative and other problems of data collection in North Africa and West Asian Arabic speaking countries.” International Population Conference, London, 1969, vol. 1, pp. 286–293.Google Scholar See also George, Sabagh, “The demography of the Middle East,” Middle East Studies Association Bulletin, vol.4, No.2, 05 1970, pp. 1–9 and “Civil registration and vital statistics in selected countries in the Middle East,” Population Bulletin of the UN Economic and Social Office in Beirut, No. 2, 01 1972, pp.13–19.Google Scholar An indication of how demographic knowledge is improving dramatically in recent years is found in Levels and Trends of Fertility and Mortality in Selected Arab Countries of West Asia, Amman, , Jordan, , The Population Studies Programme, 1980.Google Scholar

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17 Several demographic factors, such as age structure and life expectancy, which have effects on CBR, CDR and growth rate will generally not be dealt with in this paper since satisfactory data are unavailable for most of the countries of the region. For a discussion of these factors see Tomas, Frejka, The Future of Population Growth, New York: John Wiley, 1973, Chapter 1;Google Scholar and Ansley, J. Coale, “Birth rates, death rates, and rates of growth in human population,” in Mindel, C. Sheps and Jeanne, Clare Ridley, eds., Public Health and Population Change, Pittsburgh, Pa.: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1965, pp. 242–265.Google Scholar

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44 ibid.

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52 ibid., p. 309.

53 Personal communication from Dr., Serim Timur, Population Division, UNESCO, Paris, 04, 1976.Google Scholar

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69 Hill, op. cit.

70 Rizk, op. cit.

71 Kjurciev and Courbage, p. 45.

72 La Population de l'Iran, p. 10.Google Scholar

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76 “La fécondité marocaine.” Rabat: Centre de Recherches et d'Etudes demographiques, 1974, pp. 10–11.

77 La Population du Maroc, p. 20.

78 See Lapham, R. J., “Family Planning attitudes, knowledge and practice in the Sais Plain,” Studies in Family Planning, vol. 58, 10 1970, p. 22.Google Scholar

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80 La Population du Maroc, p. 14.Google Scholar

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82 ibid., p. 166.

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84 Khalil, , p. 233.Google Scholar

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89 Hill, op. cit.

90 Cairo, Demographic Center, Demographic Measures and Population Growth in the Arab Countries, p. 186.Google Scholar

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93 ibid.

94 Henin, R. A., “Nomadic fertility as compared with that of rain cultivators in Sudan.” International Population Conference, London, 1969, vol. 1, p. 796.Google Scholar

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97 See Henin and Paydarfar, op. cit.

98 For a recent review of this controversy see Harik, I., The Political Modernization of Peasants: A Study of an Egyptian Community, Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1974, pp. 13–27Google Scholar; and van Nieuwenhuijze, C. A. O., ed., Commoners, Climbers and Notables: A Sampler of Studies on Social Ranking in the Middle East. Leiden, E. J. Brill, 1977.Google Scholar

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103 See Nazer, I. R. et al. Islam and Planned Parenthood, Beirut: IPPF, 1974.Google Scholar Originally published in Arabic, the 2 vols. provide the papers and proceedings of a meeting of Muslim religious leaders in Rabat, Morocco, in 1971. See also Musallam, B. F., “The Islamic sanction of contraception,” in Parry, H. B., ed., Population and its Problems. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1974, pp. 300–310.Google Scholar

104 See, for example, Arowolo, O., “Correlates of fertility in Moslem populations: an empirical analysis,” unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, University of Pennsylvania, 1973.Google Scholar

105 Kirk, , “A new demographic transition?” p. 144.Google Scholar

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108 See the discussion in Watson, W. B. and Lapham, R. J., pp. 207–220.Google Scholar

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