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An Economic Indicator of Socio-Political Unrest

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2009

I. William Zartman ,
James A. Paul  and
John P. Entelis
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Extract

The relationship between economic phenomena and revolution has intrigued political scientists from Aristotle2 to Zanzibar.3 As usual in political science, however, most studies of the matter have been limited to intuitive hypotheses, without any attempt at comparative empirical verification. As a result, a number of such hypothetical explanations have been proposed, each showing the persuasiveness of its own internal logic (as if convincing observers were the same thing as comprehending – let alone controlling – events) but none with any better claim on reality than the other.

Type
Articles
Information
International Journal of Middle East Studies , Volume 2 , Issue 4 , October 1971 , pp. 293 - 310
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1971

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References

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page 294 note 1 Raymond, Tanter and Manus, Midlarsky, ‘A Theory of Revolution’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 11 (09 1967), p. 271.Google Scholar

page 294 note 2 Another group of economic hypotheses that we do not deal with here are those which are concerned with distribution, but from a static rather than a dynamic perspective. These arise out of the tradition of Aristotle which holds that a ‘mixed’ society, neither too unequal nor too equal, is the most stable. This perspective is developed by James Harrington, the English seventeenth-century writer, and by Tanter and Midlarsky, op. cit. A modification of it, focusing solely on the destabilizing effect of too much inequality, was developed by Vilfredo Pareto and, more recently by Fred, Kort (‘The Quantification of Aristotle's Theory of Revolution’, American Political Science Review, 46 (1952), pp. 486–93). The failure of these theories lies in the fact that many different degrees of distribution have appeared unjust and have generated revolutions historically and also in that they attempt to explain the dynamics of social change through the analysis of static relations of distribution. It was felt that Marx's theory, which incorporates an analysis of distribution into a dynamic and historically relative theory, was the most relevant theory for our purpose of discussion.Google Scholar

page 294 note 3 Karl, Marx, The Communist Manifesto, trans. Sweeney, (New York, Monthly Review Press, 1964), pp. 23–24.Google ScholarBertell, Oilman, Alienation: Marx' Concept of Man in Capitalist Society (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming, 1971).Google Scholar

page 295 note 1 Alexis, de Tocqueville, The Old Regime and the French Revolution (New York, Harper, 1856), chap. 16, pp. 206–17.Google Scholar

page 295 note 2 Crane, Brinton, The Anatomy of Revolution (Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice Hall, 1952), pp. 29–32, 264.Google Scholar

page 295 note 3 James, C. Davies, ‘Toward a Theory of Revolution’, American Sociological Review 27, no. 1 (1962), pp. 5–19.Google Scholar See Barrington, Moore, The Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston, Beacon, 1966), pp. 473–4, for a variant that includes noneconomic factors.Google Scholar

page 295 note 4 Camille, E. Labrousse, La Crise de l'économie française à la fin de l'ancien régime et au debut de la Revolution (Paris, P.U.F., 1944)Google Scholar

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page 297 note 1 Moore, , op. cit., pp. 470–1, although 47332 seems weak and 474 is ultimately contradictory of the previous attempts to argue for objective criteria.Google Scholar

page 297 note 2 Davies, , op. cit., p. 6.Google Scholar

page 297 note 3 Ibid. pp. 13, 15.

page 297 note 4 Gurr with Rutterberg, op. cit.

page 298 note 1 Ibid. p. 70.

page 298 note 2 Tanter and Midlarsky, op. cit.

page 298 note 3 See the discussion in Oscar, Morgenstern, On the Accuracy of Economic Observations (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2nd ed., 1963).Google Scholar

page 298 note 4 Personal communication to the authors. F.A.O. has some such figures.

page 299 note 1 See James, A. Paul, ‘A Comparison of Revolutionary Situations in Two Developing Countries in Northern Africa – Sudan: October–March 1964–5; Morocco; March–June, 1965.’ Unpublished M.A. thesis, New York University.Google Scholar

page 299 note 2 Bertrand, Munier, ‘Chronique économique marocaine’, Annuaire de l'Afrique du Nord, 1964 (Paris: CNRS, 1965), p. 284.Google Scholar

page 300 note 1 Components of the balance-of-payments figure, in all cases drawn from the United Nations Statistical Yearbooks, are Goods and services (I, goods, freight, and insurance on merchandise; 2, other services and private transfers; 3, central government transfers) and Non-monetary sector capital (4, direct investment; 5, other private; 6, central government.)

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page 307 note 1 See Belgian Office d'information et des relations publique pour le Congo beige et le Ruanda-Urundi, : Belgian Congo (Brussels, 1959–1960);Google Scholar Centre de recherches et d'information socio-politiques: Congo, 1959 (Brussels, CRISP, 1963); Belgium, Chambre des Représentants, Session 1958–1959;Google ScholarCommission parlementaire chargée de faire une enquête stir les événements qui se sont produits à Léopoldville en janvier Rapport à la Chambre, Document no. 100/31 (Brussels, 27 03 1959).Google Scholar

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