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Agent-based modelling of interstellar contacts using rumour spread models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 August 2020

Tevfik Uyar Open the ORCID record for Tevfik Uyar [Opens in a new window]  and
Mehmet Emin Özel
Tevfik Uyar*
Affiliation:
Istanbul Kültür University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, İstanbul, Turkey
Mehmet Emin Özel
Affiliation:
Çukurova University, UZAYMER Space Research Center, Adana, Turkey
*
Author for correspondence: Tevfik Uyar, E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Some stochastic model of rumours asserts that even an advanced communication network does not guarantee every agent hears certain news because they predict that rumour spreaders convert to stifflers when contacted with an informed agent. In this study, we adapted two rumour spread models to interstellar communication by developing an agent-based model (ABM) for exploring the issue more rigorously. We enhanced the spread models by adding two additional parameters called conversion probability and stop-criterion, which represent the eagerness and persistency of civilizations to establish new contacts. Results of the ABM under several settings suggest that limited SETI searches lead to undiscovered civilizations. Earth may be one of these undiscovered civilizations although an advanced communication network might already be set up. Hence, we speculate that rumour spread models can propose another solution to Fermi's Paradox.

Keywords

Agent-based modelFermi's Paradoxrumour models
Type
Research Article
Information
International Journal of Astrobiology , Volume 19 , Issue 6 , December 2020 , pp. 423 - 429
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

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