Published online by Cambridge University Press: 27 February 2018
We have simulated the evolution of the Leonid stream via numerical integration of 3 million test particles ejected from 55P/Tempel-Tuttle during five perihelion passages of that comet. Using the Whipple ejection velocity formula and a random ejection spread in true anomaly about the parent comet orbit inside 2.3 AU, we have followed the subsequent evolution of Leonid meteoroids differing by over 5 orders of magnitude in mass under the influence of radiation pressure and planetary perturbations. By comparing the model predictions of Leonid activity on a year by year basis with the available observations we have attempted to determine roughly the time of ejection associated with each Leonid storm occurrence and model the observed mass distribution. On the basis of the demonstrated accuracy of the model we make predictions regarding times of peak activity and relative strengths for the Leonid returns for each year during the latter part of the 1990s.