Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Central-Line–Associated Bloodstream Infection (CLABSI) in Patients With Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

Abstract

Background: The number of patients with end-stage renal disease and acute kidney injury in China is large and increasing year by year. Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is one of the important treatment methods. However, long-time CRRT would inevitably lead to CLABSI, which would seriously affect the treatment and prognosis of the patient. Although CLABSIs can be prevented and controlled, the rate of CLABSI in China is still higher than in other countries. Therefore, it is urgent to find new intervention methods on the basis of existing methods. Surveillance is the prerequisite of infection prevention and control. We sought to develop a risk prediction model for CLABSI in patients with CRRT according to uncontrollable risk factors, which could be used for early assessment and screening of high-risk infection groups. Such a tool would bring the supervision and infection control to the forefront in addressing these issues. Methods: We selected 3,103 CRRT patients in the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2013 to December 2018 using the hospital infection and infectious disease monitoring module of electronic medical records (EMR) system with the integration and elimination criteria. Data mining and feature selection were performed using Weka software. Separately, prediction models developed by Weka software and SPSS software were compared with each other using the area under the curve (AUC) method to assess the performance of the forecasting models. Result: The incidence of CLABSI in CRRT patients was 8.01 per 1,000 catheter days (238 of 29,711). According to the multifactor regression analysis by SPSS software, the retaining time of dialysis catheter, C-reactive protein levels, total bilirubin, acute pancreatitis, and systemic inflammation reaction syndrome were the risk factors. According to the Youden’s index, the cutoff point of the retaining time of dialysis catheter was 5.5 days; the cutoff point of CRP was 112.5mg/L; and the cutoff point of total bilirubin was 14.15 μmol/L. The prediction models of CLABSI for CRRT patients were developed: The AUC of the prediction model developed by SPSS software was 0.763 (95% CI, 0.717–0.809). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the AUCs of the prediction models developed separately by Weka software using Bayes, logistic regression analysis, multiple layer Perceptron and J48, and SPSS software through logistic regression analysis were between 0.6 and 0.8. Using the down-sampling technique, the AUC ranged between 0.7 and 0.9, and the sensitivity, precision, and κ value increased. Thus, these models had definite clinical significance. Conclusion: The prediction models of CLABSI for CRRT patients, developed based on the big healthcare data, not only had good judgment ability, but also had good application value for individual evaluations and the target population.

Funding: This study was supported by the Health Commission of Sichuan Province.

Disclosures: None