Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 March 2014
Using Sartori's and Mainwaring and Scully's work on consolidation and institutionalization of party systems as touchstones, this article analyses the evolution of party systems with regard to stability and fluidity of legislative party configurations in Africa's democratic states. It examines the key issue of whether there is any stabilization of party systems in Africa today, and if so, under what circumstances such stabilization occurs. This article questions previous studies, arguing that we have not yet sufficiently solved the question of whether party systems as stable interactions exist in Africa. Providing a detailed analysis of elections in Africa's established and emerging democracies, and making a distinction between democratic and undemocratic countries, this study classifies Africa's 21 electoral democracies as fluid, de-stabilized, or stable party systems. A key finding is that institutionalization of these party systems has not occurred over an extended period, but rather, institutionalized party system configurations have been stable from the onset of multiparty elections. Conversely, the other large group of countries with non-institutionalized party systems seems to be perpetually fluid systems despite, in many cases, several successive multiparty elections.
1 Elmer E. Schattschneider, Party Government, New York, Farrar and Rinehart, 1942.Google Scholar
2 Giovanni Sartori, Parties and Party Systems: A Framework of Analysis, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1976; Scott P. Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully, ‘Party Systems in Latin America’, in Scott P. Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully (eds), Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America, Stanford, Stanford University Press, 1995.Google Scholar
3 Manning, Carrie, ‘Assessing African Party Systems After the Third Wave’, Party Politics, 11: 6 (2005), pp. 707–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
4 Mozaffar, Shaheen and Scarritt, James R., ‘The Puzzle of African Party Systems’, Party Politics, 11: 4 (2005), pp. 399–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
5 Bogaards, Matthijs, ‘Counting Parties and Identifying Dominant Party Systems in Africa’, European Journal of Political Research, 43 (2004), pp. 173–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Nicholas van de Walle and K. S. Butler, ‘Political Parties and Party Systems in Africa's Illiberal Democracies’, Cambridge Review of International Studies, 13: 1 (1999), pp. 14–28.
6 Kuenzi, Michelle and Lambright, Gina, ‘Party Institutionalization in 30 African Countries’, Party Politics, 7: 4 (2001), pp. 438–68;CrossRefGoogle Scholar and Michelle Kuenzi and Gina Lambright, ‘Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation in Africa’s Electoral Regimes’, Party Politics, 11: 4 (2005), pp. 423–46.
7 On the self-reinforcing power of elections, see Lindberg, Staffan I., ‘The Democratic Quality of Multiparty Elections: Participation, Competition and Legitimacy in Africa’, Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Studies, 42: 1 (2004), pp. 61–104;Google Scholar on the effects on gender representation, see Staffan I. Lindberg, ‘Democratization and Women's Empowerment: The Effects of Electoral Systems, Participation and Repetition in Africa’, Studies in Comparative International Development, 39: 1 (2004), pp. 28–53; on the adaptation and learning of opposition parties, see Staffan I. Lindberg, ‘Tragic Protest: Why Do Opposition Parties Boycott Elections?’, in Andreas Schedler (ed.), Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition, Boulder, CO, Lynne Rienner, 2006, pp. 209–30; and on democratization and the enhancing of civil liberties, see Staffan I. Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006, and Staffan I. Lindberg, ‘The Surprising Significance of African Elections’, Journal of Democracy, 17: 1 (2006), pp. 139–51.
8 On social cleavages, see Seymour M. Lipset and Stein Rokkan, ‘Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments: An Introduction’, in Seymour M. Lipset and Stein Rokkan (eds), Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross National Perspectives, New York, The Free Press, 1967; on the inability of existing parties to be responsive, see Charles Hauss and David Rayside, ‘The Development of New Parties in Western Democracies Since 1945’, in Louis Maisel and Joseph Cooper (eds), Political Parties: Development and Decay, Beverly Hills, Sage Publications, 1978; and Elmer E. Schattschneider, The Semisovereign People: A Realist's View of Democracy in America, Hinsdale, Dryden Press, 1960; on the strategic interaction of organized groups, see Maurice Duverger, Les Partis Politiques, Paris, Colin, 1954; and on configuration of voters’ preferences, see Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York, Harper & Row, 1957.Google Scholar
9 Scott P. Mainwaring and Marino Torcal, ‘Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory After the Third Wave of Democratization’, in Richard S. Katz and Willliam Crotty (eds), Handbook of Political Parties, London, Sage Publications, 2006, pp. 204–5.Google Scholar
10 Sartori, Parties and Party Systems.Google Scholar
11 Manning, ‘Assessing African Party Systems’.Google Scholar
12 Goran Hyden, ‘Barriers to Party Systems in Africa: The Movement Legacy’, paper presented at the African Studies Association 48th Annual Conference, Washington, DC, 17–20 November 2005.Google Scholar
13 Sartori, Parties and Party Systems.Google Scholar
14 On Latin America, see Coppedge, Michael, ‘The Dynamic Diversity of Latin American Party Systems’, Party Politics, 4: 4 (1998), pp. 547–68;CrossRefGoogle Scholar Mainwaring and Scully, ‘Party Systems in Latin America’; Scott P. Mainwaring, Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization, Stanford, Stanford University Press, 1999; and Andreas Schedler, ‘Under- and Overinstitutionalization: Some Ideal Typical Propositions Concerning New and Old Party Systems’, Working Paper No. 213, University of Notre Dame, Kellogg Institute for International Studies, 1995; on Asia, see Hans Stockton, ‘Political Parties, Party Systems, and Democracy in East Asia: Lessons From Latin America’, Comparative Political Studies, 34: 1 (2001), pp. 94–119; on the post-Communist region, see Peter Mair (ed.), The West European Party System, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1997; Robert Moser, ‘Electoral Systems and the Number of Parties in Post-Communist States’, World Politics, 51: 3 (1999), pp. 359–84; Richard Rose and Neil Munro, Elections and Parties in New European Democracies, Washington, DC, CQ Press, 2003; and on Africa, see Kuenzi and Lambright, ‘Party Institutionalization in 30 African Countries’.
15 Bogaards, Matthjis, ‘Dominant Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Africa: A Comment on Mozaffar and Scarritt’, Party Politics, 13: 6 (2007).Google Scholar
16 Mozaffar and Scarritt, ‘The Puzzle of African Party Systems’, p. 403.Google Scholar
17 Bogaards, ‘Counting Parties and Identifying Dominant Party Systems’.Google Scholar
18 Ibid.; Sartori, Parties and Party Systems.Google Scholar
19 Kuenzi and Lambright, ‘Party Institutionalization in 30 African Countries’; and Kuenzi and Lambright, ‘Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation’.Google Scholar
20 Mainwaring and Scully, ‘Party Systems in Latin America’; Mainwaring, Rethinking Party; and Mainwaring and Torcal, ‘Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory’.Google Scholar
21 Morrison, Minion K. C., ‘Political Parties in Ghana through Four Republics: A Path to Democratic Consolidation’, Comparative Politics, 36: 4 (2004), pp. 421–42;CrossRefGoogle Scholar see also Staffan I. Lindberg and Minion K. C. Morrison, ‘Exploring Voter Alignments in Africa: Core and Swing Voters in Ghana’, Journal of Modern African Studies, 43: 4 (2005), pp. 1–22.
22 Duverger, Les Partis Politiques.Google Scholar
23 On the distinction between consolidated party systems and non-systems, see Sartori, Parties and Party Systems, pp. 244–8; and Mainwaring and Torcal, ‘Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory’, p. 206; for the definition of institutionalization, see Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1968, p. 12.Google Scholar
24 Przeworski, Adam, ‘Institutionalization of Voting Patterns, or is Mobilization the Source of Decay? American Political Science Review, 69: 1 (1975), pp. 49–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
25 In a slight deviation from Mainwaring and Torcal I treat splinter parties, when a party splits into two or more parties from one election to the next, as new parties because they presumably present new choices to voters. Similarly, when two or more parties merged and created a new organization but they had competed in the previous election as separate parties, I treat the new merger or alliance as a new party because it also presents voters with a new choice. When a party changed its name but had an obvious continuity with a previous party, I count it as being the same organization. I also treat independents as a category because of a shortage of the data needed for comparing individuals' results from one election to the next. Cf. Mainwaring and Torcal, ‘Party System’.Google Scholar
26 Mozaffar and Scarritt, ‘The Puzzle of African Party Systems’; Bogaards, Matthijs, ‘Electoral Choices for Divided Societies: Multi-Ethnic Parties and Constituency Polling in Africa’, Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, 41: 3 (2004), pp. 59–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
27 Kuenzi and Lambright, ‘Party Institutionalization in 30 African Countries’; and Kuenzi and Lambright, ‘Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation’.Google Scholar
28 See Mogens N. Pedersen, ‘Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility in European Party Systems: Exploration in Explanation’, in Hans Daalder and Peter Mair (eds), Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, Beverly Hills, Sage Publications, 1983.Google Scholar
29 Mainwaring and Torcal, ‘Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory’, p. 207.Google Scholar
30 It is not within the scope of this article to go into this issue in depth, but for a good discussion of the notion of how the ‘people’ can be conceived, see Robert A. Dahl, Democracy and Its Critics, New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1989, ch. 9.Google Scholar
31 Giovanni Sartori, The Theory of Democracy Revisited, Chatham, Chatham House, 1987, p. 30.Google Scholar
32 Even ‘participatory’ democracy as a formula for decision-making translates into a representative form as only the few can in practice lead, speak and contribute to mass meetings – or the meetings would be endless – whilst the many are confined to listen, evaluate and vote just as in a representative democracy proper, see Dahl, Democracy and Its Critics, p. 277. There are indeed other venues for participatory approaches of inclusion that can feed into a policy process before the decision-point but that renders participatory approaches a supplement, as opposed to an alternative, to representative democracy.Google Scholar
33 Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 2nd edn, New York, Harper, 1947, p. 269; William H. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation, New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1986, p. 25; Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, Norman, University of Oklahoma Press, 1991, p. 29.Google Scholar
34 Robert A. Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition, New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1971, pp. 1–7.Google Scholar
35 Michael Bratton and Nicholas van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in a Comparative Perspective, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1997; Larry Diamond, Juan J. Linz and Seymour M. Lipset, Comparing Experiences with Democracy: Democracy in Developing Countries, Boulder, CO, Lynne Rienner, 1989; and Benjamin Reilly, Democracy in Divided Societies: Electoral Engineering for Conflict Management, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001.Google Scholar
36 Since Freedom House scores are given dating back one year I use the rating assigned to the countries at the election year +1.Google Scholar
37 The data-set is primary drawn from Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa, but has been extended using data from Dieter Nohlen, Michael Krennerich and Bernhard Thibaut (eds), Elections in Africa: A Data Handbook, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1999, and International Parliamentary Union's series of Chronicle of Parliamentary Elections, Geneva, International Parliamentary Union, vols 29–37, 1995 to 2004. The data-set can be downloaded from the author's website: http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/lindberg/ Google Scholar
38 See for example, Van De Walle, Nicholas, ‘Presidentialism and Clientelism in Africa's Emerging Party Systems’, Journal of Modern African Studies, 41: 2 (2003), pp. 297–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
39 In the Senegalese case, the number of parties in the legislature increased over a few elections but it was only by the latest election in 2001 that things changed dramatically.Google Scholar
40 Hyden, ‘Barriers to Party Systems in Africa’; Bogaards, ‘Counting Parties and Identifying Dominant Party Systems’; Kuenzi and Lambright, ‘Party Institutionalization in 30 African Countries’; and Kuenzi and Lambright, ‘Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation’.Google Scholar
41 Mozaffar and Scarritt, ‘The Puzzle of African Party Systems’.Google Scholar
42 Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa.Google Scholar
43 Lipset and Rokkan ‘Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments’.Google Scholar