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A Strange Affair: The 2002 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in France

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 March 2014

Alistair Cole
Alistair Cole*
Affiliation:
The University of Cardiff
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Extract

The 2002 Elections In France Were A Gripping Drama Unfolding in four acts. Each act has to be understood as part of a whole, as each election was ultimately dependent upon the results of the first round of the presidential election on 21 April. However untypical in the context of Fifth Republican history, the first round of the presidential election strongly inf luenced the peculiar course of the subsequent contests. The outcome of the first election on the 21 April – at which the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen won through to the second ballot against Jacques Chirac, narrowly distancing the outgoing premier Lionel Jospin – created an electric shock which reverberated around the streets of Paris and other French cities and sparked a civic mobilization without parallel since May '68. The end-result of this exceptional republican mobilization was to secure the easy (initially rather unexpected) re-election of Chirac as president at the second round two weeks later. The election of 5 May was unlike a typical second-round election. Rather than a bipolar contest pitting left and right over a choice of future governmental orientations, it was a plebiscite in favour of democracy (hence Chirac) against the far-right (Le Pen). Chirac was re-elected overwhelmingly as president, supported by at least as many leftwing as right-wing voters. This enforced plebiscite against the extreme right allowed a resurgent Jacques Chirac to claim a renewed presidential authority. At the parliamentary election of 9 and 16 June, the Fifth Republic reverted to a more traditional mode of operation, as a new ‘presidential party’, informally launched just weeks before the elections, obtained a large overall majority of seats to ‘support the President’ in time-honoured Fifth Republican tradition.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 37 , Issue 3 , July 2002 , pp. 317 - 342
Copyright
Copyright © Government and Opposition Ltd 2002

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References

1 In 1986, the mainstream right (RPR and UDF) won a short overall majority, thereby inaugurating the first cohabitation. Since 1981, the prevalent tendency has been for decisive elections (presidential and parliamentary) to go against the incumbent government, unless a parliamentary election has followed shortly in the wake of a presidential contest, as in 1981, 1988 and 2002.

2 The five parties of the plural left alliance were: the Socialists (PS), the Communists (PCF), the Greens, the left-Radicals and the Citizens’ Movement. The latter, essentially a vehicle for the ambitions of Jean-Pierre Ch evenement, transformed itself into the Republican Pole to accompany Chevènement’s presidential election campaign.

3 See Cole, Alistair (ed.), ‘The Jospin Government, 1997–2002’, Modern and Contemporary France, 8:3 (08 2002).Google Scholar

4 In late 03 2002, a Louis-Harris/AOL/Libération poll indicated that 50 per cent considered a new ‘cohabitation’ to be acceptable, against only 11 per cent who were viscerally opposed. By late 05 2002, Liberation reported that almost half the electorate intending to vote expressed a preference for the pro-Chirac UMP in order to ensure institutional consistency. Liberation, 29 03 2002, 31 05 2002.

5 See Elgie, Robert ‘La cohabitation de longue durée: studying the 1997–2002 experience’, Modern and Contemporary France, 8:3 (08 2002)Google Scholar. Also Gaffney, John, ‘Protocol, Image, and Discourse in Political Leadership Competition: the Case of French Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, 1997–2002’, Modern and Contemporary France, 8:3 (08 2002).Google Scholar

6 Parodi, Jean-Luc ‘De l’incertitude au choix’. Communication at the French Political Science Association one day conference on ‘L’éléction présidentielle entre deux tours’. Institute of Political Studies, Paris, 26 04 2002.Google Scholar

7 Shortly after both candidates had declared their hand, the Libération/houis-Harris/AOL poll indicated that 74 per cent considered the programmes of Chirac and Jospin to be similar and 59 per cent of the electorate were ‘uninterested’ in the campaign.

8 Schrameck, Olivier, Matignon Rive Gauche, 1997–2001, Paris, Seuil, 2001.Google Scholar

9 The parliamentary elections were initially due to take place several weeks before the presidential one, which would, it was feared, have confirmed the subordination of the presidency to the National Assembly.

10 On 11–12 01 2002, for example, IPSOS credited Chirac with 28 per cent of first round voting intentions and Jospin with 24 per cent. Le Pen (8 per cent) was in fourth position, behind Chevènement (10 per cent). Cited in La Croix, 8 February 2002.

11 For much of late 2001 and early 2002, Jean-Pierre Chevènement forced the pace as the ‘third man’, reaching the giddy heights of 14 per cent in one CSA poll of 30–31 01 2002. The far-Left Laguiller took over briefly as surprise third candidate, reaching 10 per cent in the IPSOS poll on 22–23 March 2002, before Le Pen established his ascendancy. Polls consulted in the Interregional Political Observatory, Paris.

12 Jacques Gerstlé, ‘Les campagnes électorales’. Communication at the French Political Science Association one day conference on ‘L’éléction présidentielle entre deux tours’. Institute of Political Studies, Paris, 26 April 2002.

13 Chevènement had been Jospin’s Interior Minister for most of the 1997–2002 period, but resigned from the government in protest at the Matignon Agreements for Corsica in 2001, a manoeuvre that allowed him to stand as a self-styled Republican candidate.

14 Jacques Gerstlé, ‘Les campagnes électorales’.

15 The French presidency of the European Union, during the second semester of 2000, was generally considered to have been disappointing, as a result of the defensive French position at the Nice Summit, and the difficulty of negotiating with two leaders —Jospin and Chirac — against the backdrop of the presidential election in France.

16 Arlette Laguillier (LO) Olivier Besancenot (LCR) and Andre Gluckstein (PT).

17 One Communist (Robert Hue), one left radical (Christiane Taubira) one Green (Noël Mamère), one Republican (Jean-Pierre Chevènement) and one Socialist (Lionel Jospin).

18 One centrist (Francois Bayrou, UDF), one liberal (Alain Madelin, DL) and Jacques Chirac, to which we will add Christine Boutin, who previously sat as a UDF deputy.

19 Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) and Bruno Megret (MNR).

20 One proto-Green (Corinne Lepage) and one Hunting, Nature, Fishing and Tradition candidate (Jean Saint Josse).

21 Candidates having obtained the necessary 500 signatures were entitled to a standard reimbursement of campaign expenses up to 734,000 euros. Candidates polling over 5 per cent were reimbursed up to a maximum of 7,340,000 euros. The minor candidates got a lot of free publicity during the official campaign as all candidates were given exactly the same airtime.

22 The Socialist Party thus encouraged mayors to support Taubira’s candidacy, in the belief that it would allow Jospin to cast a wider net. The PS also encouraged certain mayors to support Le Pen, considered to be a major threat for Jacques Chirac.

23 This figure of 31.82 is reached at by adding Chirac, Madelin, Bayrou and Boutin. There is no cast-iron manner of counting the mainstream right candidates. Some might exclude Boutin, but include Lepage, Juppe’s former environment minister, but the latter clearly stood on an ecologist ticket.

24 According to the Zièeration/Louis-Harris/AOL exit poll published in Liberation on 23 04 2002, Chirac was supported by 15.7 per cent of 18–24 year olds and only 11.8 per cent of 25–34 year olds. In 1995, the same cohort (then 18–24 year olds) had given Chirac 32 per cent support. All figures given in the text are from this poll, unless otherwise indicated.

25 Chirac obtained his best scores — from 19.5–22 per cent — in the following 14 départements: Aveyron, Cantal, Corrèze, Creuse, Deux-Sèvres, Hauts-de-Seine, Lozere, Maine-et-Loire, Manche, Mayenne, Morbihan, Orne, Paris and Vendee.

26 Le Pen only attracted 12 per cent of the under-25 cohort. He obtained his best scores amongst the 50–64 cohort (21.8 per cent). Le Pen was supported by 19.2 per cent of men, but only 14.9 per cent of women.

27 Le Pen came first in all départements of Provence-Alpes-Cöte d’Azur except one (Hautes-Alpes), in seven out of 8 départements in the Rhone-Alpes region, in all but two in Languedoc-Roussillon, in all départements in Franche-Comté, as well as in Alsace, in all but one in Lorraine, as well as in Ardennes, Aisne, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Oise, Eure, Lot-et-Garonne et Tarn-et-Garonne. All in all the FN leader polled more than 20 per cent in 47 départements — 50 per cent of the total — and more than 25 per cent in 15 départements.

28 Pascal Perrineau ‘L’extrême droite’. Communication at the French Political Science Association one day conference on ‘L’election présidentielle entre deux tours’. Institute of Political Studies, Paris, 26 April 2002.

29 Ibid. See also Michael Samson, ‘Cinq millions et demi d’électeurs convaincus’, Le Monde, 9 May 2002.

30 Jospin obtained the support of 19.1 per cent of 25–34 year-olds, but only 12.6 per cent of the youngest cohort (18–24). Jospin obtained more support than any other candidate in two categories: Managers and Higher Intellectual professions (23.8 per cent) and Intermediary Professionals (21.1 per cent).

31 Jospin topped the poll in Midi-Pyrénées, and in the following départements in metropolitan France: Ariège, Gers, Haute-Garonne, Hautes-Pyrénées, Nièvre, Seine Saint Denis and Tarn.

32 Laguiller and Besancenot obtained 13.5 per cent of the industrial working class vote, compared to 12 per cent for Jospin and 5.3 per cent for Hue.

33 Jospin eventually called on electors to bar the way to the extreme right, but could not bring himself to mention Chirac by name. Laguiller argued for a second-round abstention and lost much support in the process.

34 All figures for the second round of the presidential election are from the Ziêeration/Louis-Harris/AOL exit poll. Liberation, 7 May 2002.

35 70 per cent voted for Le Pen on the second round, but 20 abstained or spoiled their ballot and 10 per cent supported Chirac.

36 Many made Nicholas Sarkozy, the tough RPR mayor of Neuilly, the front runner. But Sarkozy would not have been a consensual choice likely to rally as broad a coalition as possible for the parliamentary election.

37 Le Monde, 1 June 2002.

38 See footnote 4.

39 Jean Luc Parodi ‘De la présidentielle aux legislatives’. Communication to the French Political Science Association one-day conference on the parliamentary election. Paris, Institute of Political Studies, 19 June 2002.

40 The main difference between the 1997 and 2002 elections related to the number of three-way contests. There were 9 — down from 76 in 1997. There were 28 duels between FN and UMP (from 56 in 1997) and only 8 duels between the left and the FN (from 25 in 1997). The right won back 43 of the seats it had lost as a result of three-way contests in 1997.

41 Most incumbent RPR deputies agreed to this, as well as more than half of those elected in 1997 on a UDF ticket as well as nearly all DL sitting deputies.

42 The Gaullists from 1968 to 1973 and the Socialists from 1981 to 1986 are the other examples.

43 There were several reasons for this RPR domination, not least the divisions within the former UDF itself, as a majority of sitting deputies rallied to Chirac and the UMP against the attempt by Bayrou to retain the UDF as an independent centre party. We should also mention the domination by the RPR over the negotiation of the UMP candidatures after Chirac’s election.

44 Jéröme Jaffré, ‘Le vote des droites’. Communication to the French Political Science Association one-day conference on the parliamentary election. Paris, Institute of Political Studies, 19 June 2002.