Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T03:04:59.028Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Political and Economic Consequences of Populist Rule in Latin America

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 August 2016

Christian Houle  and
Paul D. Kenny
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

While populist rule has become increasingly prevalent in the developing world, much of our knowledge about its implications remains anecdotal and contradictory. In this article, we conduct the most comprehensive large-N cross-national test of the consequences of populist rule to date. Using data on 19 Latin American states, we find that populism’s implications are mostly negative: (1) populist regimes tend to erode institutional and legal constraints on executive authority; (2) participation rates are not higher under populist governments or for populist campaigners; and (3) populist rule, even under left-wing populists, is not associated with more redistribution than non-populist democratic rule. We perform instrumental variable estimations and a quasi-experimental analysis to address the potential endogeneity of populism.

Keywords

populismpolitical participationrule of lawredistribution
Type
Articles
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 53 , Issue 2 , April 2018 , pp. 256 - 287
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Government and Opposition Limited and Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Christian Houle is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Contact email: [email protected].

Paul D. Kenny is Research Fellow in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University. Contact email: [email protected].

References

Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S. and Wacziarg, R. (2003), ‘Fractionalization’, Journal of Economic Growth, 8: 155–194.Google Scholar
Altman, D. and Pérez-Linán, A. (2002), ‘Assessing the Quality of Democracy: Freedom, Competitiveness and Participation in Eighteen Latin American Countries’, Democratization, 9(2): 85–100.Google Scholar
Avritzer, L. (2002), Democracy and the Public Space in Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press).Google Scholar
Beck, T., Clarke, G., Groff, A., Keefer, P. and Walsh, P. (2001), ‘New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions’, World Bank Economic Review, 15(1): 165–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birdsall, N., Lustig, N. and McLeod, D. (2011), Declining Inequality in Latin America: Some Economics, Some Politics (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development).Google Scholar
Blofield, M. (2011) (ed.), The Great Gap: Inequality and the Politics of Redistribution in Latin America (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press).Google Scholar
Brancati, D. (2009), Peace by Design: Managing Intrastate Conflict Through Decentralization (New York: Oxford University Press).Google Scholar
Canovan, M. (1999), ‘Trust the People! Populism and the Two Faces of Democracy’, Political Studies, 47(1): 2–16.Google Scholar
Cheibub, J.A., Gandhi, J. and Vreeland, J.R. (2010), ‘Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited’, Public Choice, 143(1): 67–101.Google Scholar
Ciccariello-Maher, G. (2013), We Created Chávez: A People’s History of the Venezuelan Revolution (Durham, NC: Duke University Press).Google Scholar
Cingranelli, D.L. and Richards, D.L. (2010), ‘The Cingranelli and Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Data Project’, Human Rights Quarterly, 32(2): 401–424.Google Scholar
Conaghan, C.M. (2005), Fujimori’s Peru: Deception in the Public Sphere (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press).Google Scholar
Coppedge, M. (2007), ‘A Classification of Latin American Political Parties’, Kellog Institute Working Paper (South Bend, IN: University of Notre Dame).Google Scholar
Coppedge, M., Alvarez, A. and Maldonado, C. (2008), ‘Two Persistent Dimensions of Democracy: Contestation and Inclusiveness’, Journal of Politics, 70: 335–350.Google Scholar
Cornia, G.A. (2012), ‘Inequality Trends and their Determinants’, Working Paper 9 (Helsinki: World Institute for Development Economics Research).Google Scholar
Cornia, G.A. (2014) (ed.), Falling Inequality in Latin America: Policy Changes and Lessons (New York: Oxford University Press).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crick, B. (2005), ‘Populism, Politics and Democracy’, Democratization, 12(5): 625–632.Google Scholar
Crook, R.C. and Manor, J. (1998), Democracy and Decentralisation in South Asia and West Africa: Participation, Accountability, and Performance (New York: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Dahl, R.A. (1971), Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven: Yale University Press).Google Scholar
Dahl, R.A. (1982), Dilemmas of Pluralist Democracy: Autonomy vs. Control (New Haven: Yale University Press).Google Scholar
De la Torre, C. (2007), ‘The Resurgence of Radical Populism in Latin America’, Constellations, 14: 384–397.Google Scholar
De la Torre, C. (2015) (ed.), The Promise and Perils of Populism: Global Perspectives (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky).Google Scholar
Dornbusch, R. and Edwards, S. (1991) (eds), The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).Google Scholar
Doyle, D. (2011), ‘The Legitimacy of Political Institutions’, Comparative Political Studies, 44(11): 1447–1473.Google Scholar
Dunning, T. (2012), Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach (New York: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Ezrow, L. and Xezonakis, G. (2016), ‘Satisfaction with Democracy and Voter Turnout: A Temporal Perspective’, Party Politics, 22(1): 3–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferejohn, J.A. and Pasquino, P. (2003), ‘Rule of Democracy and Rule of Law’, in J.M. Maravall and A. Przeworski (eds), Democracy and the Rule of Law (New York: Cambridge University Press): 242–260.Google Scholar
Germani, G. (1978), Authoritarianism, Fascism, and National Populism (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books).Google Scholar
Goldfrank, B. (2011), Deepening Local Democracy in Latin America: Participation, Decentralization, and the Left (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press).Google Scholar
Grönlund, K. and Setälä, M. (2004), ‘Low Electoral Turnout: An Indication of a Legitimacy Deficit?’, paper prepared for presentation at the ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, Uppsala.Google Scholar
Hawkins, K.A. (2009), ‘Is Chávez Populist? Measuring Populist Discourse in Comparative Perspective’, Comparative Political Studies, 42(8): 1040–1067.Google Scholar
Hawkins, K.A. (2010), ‘Who Mobilizes? Participatory Democracy in Chávez’s Bolivarian Revolution’, Latin American Politics and Society, 52(3): 31–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayek, F.A. v. (1994), The Road to Serfdom (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).Google Scholar
Honaker, J., King, G. and Blackwell, M. (2011), ‘Amelia II: A Program for Missing Data’, Journal of Statistical Software, 45(7): 1–47.Google Scholar
Huber, E. and Stephens, J.D. (2012), Democracy and the Left: Social Policy and Inequality in Latin America (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (2014), Unified Database (Stockholm: Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance).Google Scholar
Jansen, R.S. (2015), ‘Populist Mobilization: A New Theoretical Approach to Populism’, in C. de la Torre (ed.), The Promise and Perils of Populism: Global Perspectives (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky): 159–88.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M. (2010), ‘The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5430 (Washington, DC: World Bank).Google Scholar
Kenny, P.D. (2013), ‘The Patronage Network: Broker Power, Populism, and Democracy’, PhD dissertation, Yale University, New Haven.Google Scholar
Kenny, P.D. (2016), ‘Populism, Patronage, and Decentralization in Latin America and the Caribbean’, paper prepared for presentation at the ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, Pisa.Google Scholar
Kenworthy, L. and Pontusson, J. (2005), ‘Rising Inequality and the Politics of Redistribution in Affluent Countries’, Perspectives on Politics, 3(3): 449–472.Google Scholar
Laclau, E. (2005), ‘Populism: What’s in a Name?’, in F. Panizza (ed.), Populism and the Mirror of Democracy (New York: Verso).Google Scholar
Laclau, E. and Mouffe, C. (2014), Hegemony and Socialist Strategy: Towards a Radical Democratic Politics, 2nd edn (New York: Verso).Google Scholar
Larkins, C.M. (1996), ‘Judicial Independence and Democratization: A Theoretical and Conceptual Analysis’, American Journal of Comparative Law, 44: 605–626.Google Scholar
Levitsky, S. and Loxton, J. (2013), ‘Populism and Competitive Authoritarianism: The Case of Fujimori’s Peru’, in C. Mudde and C.R. Kaltwasser (eds), Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy? (New York: Cambridge University Press): 160–181.Google Scholar
Levitsky, S. and Roberts, K.M. (2011), ‘Latin America’s “Left Turn”: A Framework for Analysis’, in S. Levitsky and K.M. Roberts (eds), The Resurgence of the Latin American Left (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press): 1–28.Google Scholar
Loffredo, S. (1993), ‘Poverty, Democracy and Constitutional Law’, University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 1277–1389.Google Scholar
López-Calva, L.F. and Lustig, N. (2010), Declining Inequality in Latin America: A Decade of Progress? (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press).Google Scholar
Mair, P. (2002), ‘Populist Democracy vs Party Democracy’, in Y. Meny and Y. Surel (eds), Democracies and the Populist Challenge (Houndmills: Palgrave): 81–98.Google Scholar
Manin, B. (1997), The Principles of Representative Government (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
McLeod, D. and Lustig, N. (2011), ‘Inequality and Poverty under Latin America’s New Left Regimes’, Tulane University Economics Working Paper Series 1117 (New Orleans, LO: Tulane University).Google Scholar
Meltzer, A.H. and Richard, S.F. (1981), ‘A Rational Theory of the Size of Government’, Journal of Political Economy, 89(5): 914–927.Google Scholar
Miles, M.R. (2015), ‘Turnout as Consent: How Fair Governance Encourages Voter Participation’, Political Research Quarterly, 68(2): 363–376.Google Scholar
Montecino, J.A. (2012), ‘Decreasing Inequality under Latin America’s Social Democratic and Populist Governments: Is the Difference Real?’, International Journal of Health Services, 42(2): 257–275.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mouffe, C. (2005), ‘The “End of Politics” and the Challenge of Right-wing Populism’, in F. Panizza (ed.), Populism and the Mirror of Democracy (New York: Verso): 50–71.Google Scholar
Mudde, C. (2004), ‘The Populist Zeitgeist’, Government and Opposition, 39(4): 542–563.Google Scholar
Mudde, C. and Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2013) (eds), Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy? (New York: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
O’Donnell, G.A. (1993), ‘On the State, Democratization and Some Conceptual Problems: A Latin American View with Glances at Some Postcommunist Countries’, World Development, 21: 1355–1369.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, G.A. (1994), ‘Delegative Democracy’, Journal of Democracy, 5(1): 55–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ochoa Espejo, P. (2015), ‘Power to Whom? The People Between Procedure and Populism’, in C. de la Torre (ed.), The Promise and Perils of Populism: Global Perspectives (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky): 59–90.Google Scholar
Panizza, F. (2005), ‘Introduction: Populism and the Mirror of Democracy’, in F. Panizza (ed.), Populism and the Mirror of Democracy (New York: Verso): 1–30.Google Scholar
Panizza, F. (2009), Contemporary Latin America: Development and Democracy Beyond the Washington Consensus (London: Zed).Google Scholar
Pappas, T. (2014), ‘Populist Democracies: Post-Authoritarian Greece and Post-Communist Democracy’, Government and Opposition, 49(1): 1–23.Google Scholar
Persson, T., Roland, G. and Tabellini, G. (1997), ‘Separation of Powers and Political Accountability’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112: 1163–1202.Google Scholar
Pettit, P. (1997), Republicanism: A Theory of Freedom and Government (Oxford: Clarendon).Google Scholar
Pop-Eleches, G. (2009), From Economic Crisis to Reform: IMF Programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press).Google Scholar
Przeworski, A. (1999), ‘Minimalist Conception of Democracy: A Defense’, in I. Shapiro and C. Hacker-Cordón (eds), Democracy’s Value (New York: Cambridge University Press): 22–55.Google Scholar
Regan, P. and Clark, D. (2010), ‘The Institutions and Elections Project’, Binghamton University, www.binghamton.edu/political-science/institutions-and-elections-project.html.Google Scholar
Remmer, K.L. (2011), ‘The Rise of Leftist–Populist Governance in Latin America: The Roots of Electoral Change’, Comparative Political Studies, 45(8): 947–972.Google Scholar
Riker, W.H. (1982), Liberalism Against Populism: A Confrontation Between the Theory of Democracy and the Theory of Social Choice (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman).Google Scholar
Roberts, K.M. (1995), ‘Neoliberalism and the Transformation of Populism in Latin America: The Peruvian Case’, World Politics, 48(1): 82–116.Google Scholar
Roberts, K.M. (2007), ‘Latin America’s Populist Revival’, SAIS Review, 27(1): 3–15.Google Scholar
Roberts, K.M. (2013), ‘Populism and Democracy in Venezuela under Hugo Chavez’, in C. Mudde and C. Rovira Kaltwasser (eds), Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy? (New York: Cambridge University Press): 136–159.Google Scholar
Roberts, K.M. (2015), Changing Course in Latin America: Party Systems in the Neoliberal Era (New York: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Ross, M. (2006), ‘Is Democracy Good for the Poor?’, American Journal of Political Science, 50(4): 860–874.Google Scholar
Ross, M. (2013), ‘Oil and Gas Data, 1932–2011’, Harvard Dataverse V2, http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/20369.Google Scholar
Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2012), ‘The Ambivalence of Populism: Threat and Corrective for Democracy’, Democratization, 19: 184–208.Google Scholar
Schumpeter, J.A. (1976), Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, 5th edn (London: Allen and Unwin).Google Scholar
Segura-Ubiergo, A. (2007), The Political Economy of the Welfare State in Latin America: Globalization, Democracy, and Development (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Shils, E. (1956), The Torment of Secrecy: The Background and Consequences of American Security Policies (Melbourne: W. Heinemann).Google Scholar
Solt, F. (2009) [2013], ‘Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database’, Social Science Quarterly, 90(2): 231–242.Google Scholar
Tanaka, M. (1998), Los espejismos de la democracia: el colapso del sistema de partidos en el Perú, 1980–1995, en perspectiva comparada (Lima: IEP, Instituto de Estudios Peruanos).Google Scholar
Thompson, E.P. (1975), Whigs and Hunters: The Origin of the Black Act (New York: Pantheon Books).Google Scholar
Topf, R. (1995), ‘Electoral Participation’, in H.-D. Klingemann and D. Fuchs (eds), Beliefs in Government, Vol. I (Oxford: Oxford University Press): 27–51.Google Scholar
Treisman, D. (2007), The Architecture of Government: Rethinking Political Decentralization (New York: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Trivino Salazar, J.C. (2013), The Promise of Transformation through Participation: An Analysis of Communal Councils in Caracas, Venezuela (Rotterdam: International Institute for Social Studies).Google Scholar
Urbinati, N. (1998), ‘Democracy and Populism’, Constellations, 5(1): 110–124.Google Scholar
Weingast, B.R. (1997), ‘The Political Foundations of Democracy and the Rule of Law’, American Political Science Review, 91(2): 245–263.Google Scholar
Weisbrot, M. (2011), ‘Venezuela in the Chávez Years: Its Economy and Influence on the Region’, in T. Ponniah and J. Eastwood (eds), The Revolution in Venezuela: Social and Political Change under Chávez (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press).Google Scholar
Weyland, K. (2001), ‘Clarifying a Contested Concept: Populism in the Study of Latin American Politics’, Comparative Politics, 34(1): 1–22.Google Scholar
Weyland, K. (2003), ‘Latin American Neopopulism’, Third World Quarterly, 24(6): 1095–1115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilpert, G. (2007), Changing Venezuela by Taking Power: The History and Policies of the Chávez Government (London: Verso).Google Scholar
Wolford, W. (2010), This Land is Ours Now: Social Mobilization and the Meanings of Land in Brazil (Durham, NC: Duke University Press).Google Scholar
Wooldridge, J.M. (2002), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press).Google Scholar
World Bank (2013), World Development Indicators (Washington, DC: World Bank).Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Houle and Kenny supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Houle and Kenny supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 243.2 KB