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The Pendulum Swings: The British Election of 1997*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 March 2014

Martin Harrop
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Extract

‘EVERY ELECTION GENERATES ITS OWN MYTHS, MYTHS ABOUT WHAT the politicians were saying, about what the electorate thought they were saying, and about what the electorate meant by its votes.’ Butler's and Kavanagh's comment on the 1979 election applies with even more force to the outcome in 1997. For when an opposition party secures an unexpectedly large victory, there is a seemingly insatiable demand for explanations which stress the positive appeal of the winners — and a corresponding tendency to understate the significance of disenchantment with the outgoing administration. Such myths become entrenched when, as in 1979 certainly and in 1997 probably, the election does turn out to represent a political turning-point. This article therefore applies a degree of deconstruction to the 1997 election. In the afterglow of Labour's famous victory, it is as well to remember that the campaign was rather humdrum. The outcome was predictable, the lengthy campaign had little impact on Labour's lead and turnout fell significantly. Even if the election does transpire to have initiated major change, there is precious little evidence to suggest that in 1997 (any more than in 1979) a large body of electors was voting with that end in mind. What voters intend, and what elections achieve, are two different things. If there is a lesson to be drawn from the 1997 election, it seems to be rather limited and obvious. When governments are divided and directionless, the pendulum swings.

Type
Articles
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 32 , Issue 3 , July 1997 , pp. 305 - 319
Copyright
Copyright © Government and Opposition Ltd 1997

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References

1 Butler, D. and Kavanagh, D., The British General Elation of 1979, London, Macmillan, 1980, p. 336 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

2 For this reason, there must be a strong case for political scientists to initiate a longitudinal study of this new cohort of MPs.

3 Criddle, B., ‘New Intake Marked by the Stamp of the Professional’, Financial Times, 3 05 1997 , p. 11.Google Scholar

4 The Sunday Telegraph, 4 May 1997, p. 29.

5 ‘Fatal squeeze’, The Economist, 10 May 1997, p. 36.

6 The wording of Labour’s manifesto statement on electoral reform is: ‘We are committed to a referendum on the voting system for the House of Commons. An independent commission on voting systems will be appointed early to recommend a proportional alternative to the first‐past‐the‐post system.’ The manifesto also proposes to introduce: a) PR for European elections and b) the additional member system for the planned Scottish and Welsh assemblies.

7 The Economist, op. cit., p. 36.

8 Pattie, C. and Johnston, R., ‘Election’ 97 Where did the Tories Go?’, The Times, 15 05 1997 , p. 21 Google Scholar.

9 Miller, W. L., ‘There was No Alternative: the British General Election of 1983’, Parliamentary Affairs, Vol. 37, 1984 , p. 383 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

10 Naturally, I am exempt from the strictures which follow. I was one of those who anticipated a Labour landslide and I have the betting slips to prove it.

11 Crewe, I., ‘Confessions of an Errant Tipster’, The Times Higher Education Supplement, 16 05 1997 , p. 21 Google Scholar.

12 Miller, op. cit., p. 383.