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Randomness in the pattern of ‘mass extinctions’ and ‘waves of origination’

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 May 2009

Antoni Hoffman  and
Joe Ghiold
Antoni Hoffman
Affiliation:
Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, U.S.A.
Joe Ghiold
Affiliation:
Department of Geology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, U.S.A.
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Abstract

‘Mass extinctions’ and ‘waves of origination’ are defined as peaks in the average probability of family extinction and origination per geologic stage, respectively. A simple neutral model is proposed, assuming only that the average probabilities of family extinction and origination have varied independently and had equal chances of going up and down from one stage to another. As a null hypothesis, this model is not rejected by the available palaeontologic data on marine animal and nonmarine invertebrate families in the Phanerozoic. The only discrepancy between the model and the empirical pattern is due to a systematic bias introduced by Fossil-Lagerstätten. The alleged periodicity of Late Phanerozoic mass extinctions follows inevitably from the model.

Type
Articles
Information
Geological Magazine , Volume 122 , Issue 1 , January 1985 , pp. 1 - 4
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1985

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