Although central banks have pursued the same objectives throughout their existence, primarily price and financial stability, the interpretation of their role in doing so has varied. We identify three stable epochs, when such interpretations had stabilised, i.e. the Victorian era, 1840s–1914; the decades of government control, 1930s–60s; the triumph of the markets, 1980s–2007. Each epoch was followed by a confused interregnum, searching for a new consensual blueprint. The final such epoch concluded with a crisis, when it became apparent that macro-economic stability, the Great Moderation, plus (efficient) markets could not guarantee financial stability. So the search is now on for additional macro-prudential (counter-cyclical) instruments. The use of such instruments will need to be associated with controlled variations in systemic liquidity, and in the balance sheet of the central bank. Such control over its own balance sheet is the core, central function of any central bank, even more so than its role in setting short-term interest rates, which latter could be delegated. We end by surveying how relationships between central banks and governments may change over the next period.

John Moody published his first railroad security analysis and ratings manual in April 1909. This study analyzes several current issues by looking back at Moody's original intentions for constructing a ratings system. The study analyzes whether Moody intended his ratings to reflect his private information, or rather, to serve some alternative role, as with monitoring conflicts of interests or realizing informational economies of scale. The study uses an ordinal regression approach to evaluate a set of explanatory variables, constructed from both the manual itself and the panic months of 1907, to test the potential information content of Moody's ratings. At the time of Moody's first rating system, the illiquidity of the US Treasury market forced investors to seek alternative ‘high-quality’ securities. Indeed, Moody rated 38.94 percent of railroad bonds as Aaa, and rated 85.25 percent of railroad bonds as A, Aa or Aaa in his universe of railroad bonds rated. To further test the informational content of Moody's ratings, the study pursues a structural default analysis during the panic year of 1907, which yields results that indicate that the default risk of railroad securities was quite low at the time. These results provide justification for the high overall ratings that Moody assigned to railroad securities, and thus their role as near risk-free securities. Therefore, railroad securities, and Moody's ratings, played a particularly important role in the financial system at the time.

This article examines the potential conflict of interest of underwriters in London's foreign sovereign debt markets prior to the Baring crisis of 1890. We describe the main sources of information for investors concerning Argentina, whose government debt default contributed to Baring's collapse, and compare them with those of the underwriters, particularly Baring's. We then present some empirical evidence using data on bond prices and underwriting fees that demonstrate that Baring did not exploit its information lead to the detriment of investors. Finally, we present historical evidence that shows that Baring foresaw default before markets did and consequently planned a bailout loan that could not be issued due to political instability in Buenos Aires.

This article discusses the dividend strategy adopted by Norwegian commercial banks before 1914. Based on a unique data set covering all banks in the period 1882– 1913 as well as six other institutions for the pre-1882 period, I identify the existence of a strong bias towards the payment of high and stable dividends to shareholders. The origins of such bias lie in the specific institutional set-up of commercial banking, the expectations of shareholders and the absence of developed securities markets. Combined with a strong preference for high gearing, this feature contributed to increase the fragility of the Norwegian banking system.