Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-05T02:25:51.911Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

DISTRIBUTION OF DATE PALMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST BASED ON FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 September 2014

FARZIN SHABANI ,
LALIT KUMAR  and
SUBHASHNI TAYLOR
FARZIN SHABANI*
Affiliation:
Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales 2351, Australia
LALIT KUMAR
Affiliation:
Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales 2351, Australia
SUBHASHNI TAYLOR
Affiliation:
Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales 2351, Australia
*
†Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

One consequence of climate change is change in the phenology and distribution of plants, including the date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.). Date palm, as a crop specifically adapted to arid conditions in desert oases and to very high temperatures, may be dramatically affected by climate changes. Some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm growth at the present time will become climatically unsuitable in the future, while other areas that are unsuitable under current climate will become suitable in the future. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results of this study indicated that Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are most affected countries as a result of climate change. In Saudi Arabia, 129 million ha (68%) of currently suitable area is projected to become unsuitable by 2100. However, this is based on climate modelling alone. The actual decrease in area may be much smaller when abiotic and other factors are taken into account. On the other hand, 13 million ha (33%) of currently unsuitable area is projected to become suitable by 2100 in Iran. Additionally, by 2050, Israel, Jordan and western Syria will become climatically more suitable. Cold and heat stresses will play a significant role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations to identify areas for cultivation of this profitable crop in the future, and to address those areas that will need greater attention because they are becoming marginal regions for date palm cultivation.

Type
Research Article
Information
Experimental Agriculture , Volume 51 , Issue 2 , April 2015 , pp. 244 - 263
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abbas, I., Mouhi, M., Al-Roubaie, J., Hama, N. and El-Bahadli, A. (1991). Phomopsis phoenicola and Fusarium equiseti, new pathogens on date palm in Iraq. Mycological Research 95 (4):509.Google Scholar
Abdul-Baki, A., Aslan, S., Linderman, R., Cobb, S. and Davis, A. (2007). Soil, water and nutritional management of date orchards in the coachella valley and bard. Available at: http://www.cvconservation.org/pdf/SoilWaterNutrition.pdf. 6–8.Google Scholar
Al-Senaidy, M., Abdurrahman, M. and Mohammad, A. (2011). Purification and characterization of membrane-bound peroxidase from date palm leaves (Phoenix dactylifera L.). Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences 18 (3):293–298.Google Scholar
Auda, H. and Khalaf, Z. (1979). Studies on sprout inhibition of potatoes and onions and shelf-life extension of dates in Iraq. Journal of Radiation Physics and Chemistry 14 (3–6):775–781.Google Scholar
Bokhary, H. (2010). Seed-borne fungi of date-palm, Phoenix dactylifera L. from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences 17 (4):327–329.Google Scholar
Botes, A. and Zaid, A. (2002). Date palm cultivation. Available at: http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4360E/y4360e07.htm#bm07.2. FAO.Google Scholar
Brooker, R. W., Travis, J. M. J., Clark, E. J. and Dytham, C. (2007). Modelling species’ range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change. Journal of Theoretical Biology 245 (1):59–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burt, J. (2005). Growing date palms in western Australia. Available at: http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/hort/fn/cp/strawberries/f05599.pdf. 2–4. Government of western Australia: Department of agriculture and food.Google Scholar
Chakraborty, S., Murray, G. M., Magarey, P. A., Yonow, T., O’Brien, R. G., Croft, B. J., Barbetti, M. J., Sivasithamparam, K., Old, K. M., Dudzinski, M. J., Sutherst, R. W., Penrose, L. J., Archer, C. and Emmett, R. W. (1998). Potential impact of climate change on plant diseases of economic significance to Australia. Australasian Plant Pathology 27 (1):15–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Challinor, A., Simelton, W., Fraser, E., Hemming, D. and Collins, C. (2010). Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China. Environmental Research Letters 5 (3):034012.Google Scholar
Chao, C. and Krueger, R. (2007). The date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.): overview of biology, uses, and cultivation. Journal of Hortscience 42 (5):1077–1083.Google Scholar
Chiew, F., Kirono, D., Kent, D. and Vaze, J. (2009). Assessment of rainfall simulations from global climate models and implications for climate change impact on runoff studies. In 18th World IMACS 3907–3914 Australia.Google Scholar
Crossman, N. D., Bryan, B. A. and Cooke, D. A. (2011). An invasive plant and climate change threat index for weed risk management: integrating habitat distribution pattern and dispersal process. Ecological Indicators 11:183–198.Google Scholar
Elhoumaizi, M., Saaidi, M., Oihabi, A. and Cilas, C. (2001). Phenotypic diversity of date-palm cultivars (Phoenix dactylifera L.) from Morocco. Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution 49:483–490.Google Scholar
Elshibli, S., Elshibli, E. and Korpelainen, H. (2009). Date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) plants under water stress: maximisation of photosynthetic Co2 supply function and ecotypespecific response. “biophysical and socio-economic frame conditions for the sustainable management of natural resources” tropentag, hamburg. Available at: http://www.tropentag.de/2009/abstracts/links/Elshibli_FGClTsVL.pdf.Google Scholar
Eshraghi, P., Zarghami, R. and Mirabdulbaghi, M. (2005). Somatic embryogenesis in two Iranian date palm. African Journal of Biotechnology 4:1309–1312.Google Scholar
Follak, S. and Strauss, G. (2010). Potential distribution and management of the invasive weed Solanum carolinense in Central Europe. Weed Research 50 (6):544–552.Google Scholar
Global Biodiversity Information Facility (2012). GBIF Data Portal. Available online from: http://www.gbif.org/ (accessed: 19 January 2012).Google Scholar
Guisan, A. and Zimmerman, N. E. (2000). Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135:147–186.Google Scholar
Hasan, S., Baksh, K., Ahmad, Z., Maqbool, A. and Ahmed, W. (2006). Economics of growing date palm in punjab, pakistan. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology 8:1–5.Google Scholar
Heakal, M. S. and Al-Awajy, M. H. (1989). Long-term effects of irrigation and date-palm production on Torripsamments, Saudi Arabia. Geoderma 44 (4):261–273.Google Scholar
Hennessy, K., Colman, R., Pearce, K., Holper, P., Hopkins, M., Bouma, W., Whetton, P., Hennessy, K. and Power, S. (2007). Global climate change projections. Climate Change in Australia–Technical Report.Google Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Summary for policymakers.Google Scholar
Jain, S. (2011). Prospects of in vitro conservation of date palm genetic diversity for sustainable production. Emirates Journal of Food and Agriculture 23 (2):110–119.Google Scholar
Jain, S., Al-Khayri, J., Dennis, V. and Jameel, M. (2011). Date Palm Biotechnology. Netherlands: Springer.Google Scholar
Kriticos, D., Potter, K., Alexander, N., Gibb, A. and Suckling, D. (2007). Using a pheromone lure survey to establish the native and potential distribution of an invasive Lepidopteran. Journal of Applied Ecology 44:853–863.Google Scholar
Kriticos, D., Webber, B., Leriche, A., Ota, N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J. and Scott, J. (2011). Global high-resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3:53–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, D. J. (2006). Release notes for ozclim australian climate change scenarios for use in CLIMEX. version 1.0. Available from CSIRO entomology.Google Scholar
Kriticos, D. J. and Leriche, A. (2010). The effects of climate data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models. Ecography 33 (1):115–127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, D. J. and Randall, R. P. (2001). A comparison of systems to analyze potential weed distributions. In Weed Risk Assessment, 61–79 (Eds Groves, R. H., Panetta, F. D. and Virtue, J. G.). Collingwood: CSIRO Publishing.Google Scholar
Kriticos, D. J., Reynaud, P., Baker, R. H. A. and Eyre, D. (2012). Estimating the global area of potential establishment for the western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) under rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. EPPO Bulletin 42 (1):56–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, D. J., Webber, B. L., Leriche, A., Ota, N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J. and Scott, J. K. (2012b). CliMond: global high-resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3 (1):53–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mahmoudi, H. and Hosseininia, G. (2008). Enhancing date palm processing, marketing and pest control through organic culture. Journal of Organic Systems 3:30–39.Google Scholar
Management, D. o. E. a. R. (2010). Mapping lantana using landsat: a remote sensing centre report. Brisbane: Department of Environment and Resource Management.Google Scholar
Markhand, G. (2010). Fruit characterization of Pakistani dates. Available at: http://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/42%286%29/PJB42%286%293715.pdf. Pakistan Journal of Botany 42 (6):3715–3721.Google Scholar
Marqués, J., Duran-Vila, N. and Daròs, J. (2011). The Mn-binding proteins of the photosystem II oxygen-evolving complex are decreased in date palms affected by brittle leaf disease. Plant Physiology and Biochemistry 49 (4):388–394.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
McDermott, M. (2009). Climate change induced drought causing crop failure, livestock problems in Indian Himalayas. Available at: http://www.treehugger.com/natural-sciences/climate-change-induced-drought-causing-crop-failure-livestock-problems-in-indian-himalayas.html. 2012: India.Google Scholar
McMichael, A., Lendrum, D., Corvalán, C., Ebi, K. and Githeko, A. (2003). Climate change and human health. Available at: http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climchange.pdf. 145–186: World Health Organization.Google Scholar
Morriën, E., Engelkes, T., Macel, M., Meisner, A. and Van der Putten, W. H. (2010). Climate change and invasion by intracontinental range-expanding exotic plants: the role of biotic interactions. Annals of Botany 105 (6):843–848.Google Scholar
Pearson, R. G. and Dawson, T. P. (2003). Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography 12 (5):361–371.Google Scholar
Ruosteenoja, K., Carter, T. R., Jylha, K. and Tuomenvirta, H. (2003). Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/figure-3-1.html. 83: Finnish Environment Institute.Google Scholar
Shabani, F. and Kumar, L. (2013). Risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections. PLoS ONE 8 (12):e83404.Google Scholar
Shabani, F. and Kumar, L. (2014). Sensitivity analysis of CLIMEX parameters in modeling potential distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L. PLoS ONE 9 (4):e94867.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. and Esmaeili, A. (2013a). Use of climex, land use and topography to refine areas suitable for date palm cultivation in spain under climate change scenarios. Journal of Earth Science and Climatic Change 4 (4).Google Scholar
Shabani, F., Kumar, L., Esmaeili, A. and Saremi, H. (2013b). Climate change will lead to larger areas of Spain being conducive to date palm cultivation. Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment 11 (3–4):2441–2446.Google Scholar
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. and Taylor, S. (2012). Climate change impacts on the future distribution of date palms: a modeling exercise using CLIMEX. PLoS ONE 7 (10):e48021.Google Scholar
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. and Taylor, S. (2013c). Suitable regions for date palm cultivation in Iran are predicted to increase substantially under future climate change scenarios. Journal of Agricultural Science:1–15.Google Scholar
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. and Taylor, S. (2014). Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use and climate data. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 152 (04):543–557.Google Scholar
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. and Esmaeili, A. (2014b). Future distributions of Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. in European, Middle Eastern and North African agricultural regions under climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 197:96–105.Google Scholar
Shayesteh, N. and Marouf, A. (2010). Some biological characteristics of the Batrachedra amydraula Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Batrachedridae) on main varieties of dry and semi-dry date palm of Iran. In 10th International Working Conference on Stored Product Protection.Google Scholar
Soberon, J. and Peterson, A. (2005). Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species distributional areas. Biodiversity Informatics 2:1–10.Google Scholar
Suppiah, R. and Hennessy, K. (2007). Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th assessment report. In Australian Meteorological Magazine, Vol. 56, 131–152. Aspendale: Australian Meteorological Magazine.Google Scholar
Sutherst, R. W. and Bourne, A. S. (2009). Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms. Biological Invasions 11 (6):1231–1237.Google Scholar
Sutherst, R. W., Maywald, G. and Kriticos, D. J. (2007a).CLIMEX version 3: user's guide. 10–126 (Ed H. s. s. P. Ltd). Melbourne.Google Scholar
Sutherst, R. W., Maywald, G. F. and Bourne, A. S. (2007b). Including species interactions in risk assessments for global change. Global Change Biology 13 (9):1843–1859.Google Scholar
Svenning, J.-C. and Skov, F. (2007). Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by postglacial dispersal limitation? Ecology Letters 10 (6):453–460.Google Scholar
Taylor, S., Kumar, L., Reid, N. and Kriticos, D. J. (2012). Climate Change and the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Shrub, Lantana camara.L. PLoS ONE 7 (4):e35565.Google Scholar
Tengberg, M. (2011). Beginnings and early history of date palm garden cultivation in the Middle East. Journal of Arid Environments 5 (1):1–9.Google Scholar
Thuiller, W. (2007). Climate Change and the Ecologist. Nature 448 (2):550–552.Google Scholar
Thuiller, W., Richardson, D. M. and Midgley, G. F. (2007). Will climate change promote alien plant invasions? In Biological Invasions, Vol. 193, 197–211 (Ed Nentwig, W.). Berlin: Springer.Google Scholar
Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J. M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Bairlein, F. (2002). Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416 (6879):389–395.Google Scholar
Yonow, T. and Sutherst, R. W. (1998). The geographical distribution of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni, in relation to climate. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 49 (6):935–953.Google Scholar